Cameron & Clegg’s Perfectly Civil War

There’s nothing quite the novelty of a shiny new thing to hypnotise even the most cynical of sceptics, and our politicians have become somewhat expert with hopeful smiles that could convince even the hardest of hearts that the ice cream won’t melt if you keep it by the barbecue on a sunny day. And so it is with the inglorious marriage of the Tory-Lib love-in; a marriage of convenience that is fresh in its dreamy public honeymoon. However, lurking beneath the speculation, the phoney harmony, and the natural disbelief of pundits, is a simmering slow-burn tragedy biting at the leather to unfold.

The biggest criticism of the Liberal Democrats to date is that they have no experience in governing, and so are too risky to take a chance on when it comes to driving the real car no matter how good they are on the simulator. Clegg’s painful and pandering “leaf of faith” invitation acknowledged the public’s reticence to trust a few hippy rookies with the nuclear codes. The vicious circle is an infamous trap that the dominant parties are all too keen for them to be contained in. As long as the Libs have no experience, they can’t get the job. And if they can’t get the job, they can’t get any experience. Every university graduate understands the ultimate catch-22, which is presumably a subconscious motivation for their demographic for marking the yellow ballot box.

What might seem at first glance as a deal with the devil himself, and a violent clash of opposing ideologies is, admittedly, a political masterstroke on Clegg’s part. Machiavelli himself would nod in approval, as he knew all too well that politics is the art of selling out your principles for your interests in order to gain power. Clegg’s view was far longer-term than the average Lib. He’s well aware of his party’s key weakness and knows that to gain public trust, his party need to show they are credible governors.

Critics will inevitably point out that he had very little choice other than to accept a Blue deal less he risk appearing deeply irresponsible in terms of national stability. Cameron’s extraordinary call to arms, combined with Brown’s stubborn squatting, formed the political pincers at a moment of extraordinary pressure. The options were exhaustively covered in the media, and presumably argued over relentlessly in Westminster tea rooms.

For all their protests, the hardcore Liberal activists that form the party’s core have something very comfortable to face squarely up to: their leader has led them into government, despite a very disappointing electoral defeat. Few politicians can claim such a coup. It’s not such fortuitous circumstance than it is an unbelievably dramatic reversal of the order.

In comparison, Cameron has somehow, also against the odds, managed to lose the unloseable election by not getting a proper majority despite the incredible dissatisfaction with the incumbent.

A truly ruthless strategist sees the whole chess board. Whilst the populace is stirring itself over who the kingmaker will appoint as governor by proxy, another much more stealthy game is being played. The Liberal Democrats have seduced the Tories brilliantly with their very own Trojan horse; a masterful poison pill set to eat its way through the next five years like a spreading rash.

The prize of the long game is not holding the balance of power, or leveraging cabinet influence to see the implementation of liberal policies that are renovated to be more centrist, although it’s wonderfully convenient. The checks and balances of opposing forces could be a boon for the British people. But again, none of these are the end goal. The long-term win is that the Lib Dems will now be able to laud their experience in government and sell their credibility to the people.

The average voter believes a Lib vote is a wasted one, but now these votes are for people actually involved intimately in governing. Now the two old parties have a much bigger problem than fickle Cleggmania fire extinguishing. The spin doctors had to contend with in the presidential debates. Assuming there are no “sunrise” cabinet seating arrangements for the Lib ministers to serve fixed-term limits, they have a new and powerful platform to campaign on next time. The message is simple and clear: we’ve already governed, so you can trust us to form a government as we’ve shown you we’re as credible as the other two. Their enemies have become their footstools, exalting them to punch above their weight. They have been empowered from an alternative protest party to the credible structure of a future government. They’re doing the job already.

There can be fewer sweet feelings in political life than watching your enemy being forced to open the back door to the wolf that they know is dressed in wool.

You can bet Cameron’s troops have seen the play but are relatively powerless to do anything about it other than wheel the Horse in and let the invaders make themselves at home. Yet. The simple fact is that the better the Liberal ministers perform, the more credible and trustworthy the party appears to the public as both as the Queen’s opposition and a government. Forming a coalition with a competitor elevates them. No matter how broadly they both smile, the intrinsic nature of their rivalry cannot help but bear its ugly face.

This is an unequal partnership born out of necessity rather than idealistic bipartisan collaboration. The medicine poisons as much as it heals. It is not even remotely in the Tories’ interests for their Liberal rivals’ to share their spotlight or credit for the governments successes — although of course, it will be enjoyable helpful to offload the inevitable failures onto the new kids.

Therein lies the coming civil war set to rage silently behind the cameras and in the dark recesses of our political corridors. A conservative government needs the cooperation of their liberal partners, but cannot afford to allow them to rise to any further prominence. To do so allows the credibility gap to narrow and for the Libs to heal their own wound. The more responsible their younger brothers are, the more of a threat they become as an alternative to their political parents. The Tories have a precarious balancing act in front of them which is as difficult to walk as a canyon tightrope.

As a country we are living with the present non-realisation that we risk a bizarre schizophrenia in government — one where the dominant half must keep the weaker one emaciated and disreputable in order to contain them for their own security. How that will manifest is not clear, but it is not likely to be a public conflict allowing the appearance of disunity and confusion, as it benefits neither party. A conservative leadership needs to make sure the lawn is mowed brutally to stop patches growing as fruitful blades that rise taller than the rest, or earns laurels to rest on for the next campaign.

For all the potential of the unlikely union, two things can be relied on: human nature and the base instinct of politics, self-interest. If you feed your enemies, you help them grow. But it’s not long before you realise they’re powerful enough to bite. Clegg may get the boot for betraying the cause and sleeping with that enemy, but ultimately, he has taken his party further in a year than anyone else has done in ten.