The S&P 500 again tested level 4,200 and again failed to break the resistance line. There are many reasons for such a resistance force in the market. …

After my latest posts about the risks commercial real estate poses for the moment of the US economy, I received a few questions inquiring how interest rates affect real estate values. The most obvious connection is the mortgage rates financing real estate investments. Long-term mortgage rates are directly linked to…

One of the reasons behind the asset bubble (aka “Bubble Everything”) that peaked in 2021 was the extreme “quantitative easing”, which sent the Fed target rate to zero and injected $5 trillion into the US economy. This inflated the Fed’s balance sheet to $9 trillion. Obviously, this excessive amount of…

If you look at the 1-year treasury note yield today, it sits slightly above the 5% mark, trading at 5.07% this morning in New York. The 2-year treasury note yield is now trading at 4.33%. From both numbers, you can derive what we call the 1-year, 1 year forward rate…

In our May 17th post, we discussed the risks from the commercial real estate space that could wreak havoc the US economy and the financial markets. Another study from the Apollo Academy argues that although this does a significant risk to the economy and markets, it would have a smaller…

Fundamental analysis done since last year will probably paint a pretty ugly picture for stock valuation, given weakness in many areas of the economy and under the context of high inflation and high interest rates. Investors who rely heavily, if not only, on fundamental analysis, may have had a pretty…

After the liquidity and banking crisis that scared investors, what is the next big worry of the market during the current high interest rate, high inflation context? According to this Fund Manager’s Survey (see chart), the biggest worry is the commercial real estate sector. Commercial real estate is deeply interconnected…

Are we in a bull or bear market right now? Hard to tell, right? The creator of today’s chart called it “boremarket”. It’s funny but the S&P 500 have been moving sideways without a clear direction and narrower amplitude for months now. Since October 2022, the VIX (the stock market’s…

So, are we going to experience a recession or not? This question has been top of mind for all of us, investors and analysts, but the final answer will have to be waited and seen. We use metrics, stats, data to forecast scenarios but ultimately, the reality may turn out…