This is What Will Happen at the Democratic Convention
The Digital Left
10221

A lot of the commenters here are unfairly critical of the article. The author lays out several possible scenarios, backed up with delegate math, and comes to the conclusion that Sanders needs to win about 64% of the remaining pledged delegates to head into the convention in a dead heat with Clinton. He clearly characterizes this as an uphill battle, but it is certainly possible. Campaigns are fluid, and dynamics can change drastically with the news cycles.

Below is a list of Democratic primaries and caucuses to come. Of the 14 remaining contests, 4 are caucuses, which have favored Sanders throughout the race. As the original article notes, Sanders is polling well in Indiana and West Virginia, and will likely do very well in Kentucky, the Dakotas, and Nebraska given the demographics of those states. California and Oregon are also promising for Sanders with their progressive electorates and more open primaries. Montana will likely favor Sanders by a wide margin, as we saw in Wyoming and Idaho. To my mind, New Mexico is an outlier and I’m not sure who it favors, but I am inclined to believe that progressives will rule the day there as they did in Hawaii, our other majority-minority state with a large indigenous population. I only see two contests that would appear to favor Clinton: New Jersey and Washington DC.

While the odds are in clearly in Clinton’s favor, winning 64% of the remaining vote is not impossible for Sanders given the schedule ahead. The author is correct not to count super delegates at this point, as their votes will not be cast until the convention, a fact so often ignored by major media outlets since this campaign began. It’s interesting that the possibility of a contested Republican convention has been repeated ad nauseam by the news media for months while it is hardly ever mentioned that the Democrats are likely headed for the same scenario.

MAY 3 Indiana

MAY 7 Guam Democratic Caucus

MAY 10 West Virginia

MAY 17

Kentucky Democratic Primary

Oregon

JUNE 4 Virgin Islands Democratic Caucus

JUNE 5 Puerto Rico Democratic Caucus

JUNE 7

California

Montana

New Jersey

New Mexico

North Dakota Democratic Caucus

South Dakota

JUNE 14 District of Columbia

One clap, two clap, three clap, forty?

By clapping more or less, you can signal to us which stories really stand out.