Did Trump Turn America Red?

I know what you’re thinking. Another crazy conspiracy theorist claiming the election was stolen. Rest assured that what I am about to say in no way has anything to do with 2am vote dumps, frozen pipes and dead voters. Rather, what I am saying is trump through his persona and his overall get out the vote effort may have in fact set his party up to win numerous elections for years to come.

If we go back to last year and you had all the polls showing Biden winning in a landslide. As I pointed out then, it was clear the reason pollsters were getting those results was because of their party breakdown. These polls were greatly overstating democratic turnout. They assumed that Biden would match Obama’s turnout model. This was never realistic for one simple reason. Biden! Polls showed that no one was enthusiastic to come out and vote for him. So how did Biden win? He won by attaining the largest share of independent voters by a Democrat in decades. While these voters did not love Biden they did hate Trump. While the election was decided by less than one hundred thousand votes the popular vote showed that the country was in fact decidedly anti-Trump.

What was hidden behind this vote advantage were warning signs to anyone who was willing to look a little deeper than just the total vote counts. It was apparent before any votes had been counted, which is impressive, considering how early you could vote in some states. States that disclose party registration showed that in almost every one of them the GOP either closed the gap or outright surpassed the Democratic totals. This is what gave certain conservative pollsters false confidence that Trump would actually win. They correctly identified the turnout trends by party but just assumed Independents would break towards the GOP as they had done for the previous two elections. This, as we know, turned out to be very wrong. However, despite losing, exit polling in every single swing state showed that the GOPs turnout exceeded, as a share of the total vote, anything they had done since the first Bush was in office. In fact, In New Hampshire, Arizona, and Florida the GOP turnout far exceeded that of the Democrats. The GOP failed to differentiate between first time registrants, party crossovers, and Independents switching to their party. While many were new voters, clearly, significant portions came from the other two groups. This resulted in a lower than typical share of both independent voters and an even smaller share of Democrat voters crossing party lines to vote GOP.

Since the 2020 election two things have happened, the GOP trend in swing states has only increased, but also Independents have begun swinging back to the GOP. This must be terrifying news for any Democrat. In previous elections, the GOP held larger shares of the independent vote because they were Republicans who left the party because they hated Bush, either one take your pick. They continued to vote Republican they were just too embarrassed to officially associate with the party. Now, however, the GOP vote share has increased, and more independents consider themselves more closely aligned wit the GOP as well.

Gallup, which has polled party affiliation for almost twenty years, has both parties tied in affiliation and the GOP with a sizable lead when including leaners. This means no attrition, just pure growth. These trends were on full display in the Virginia Gubernatorial election earlier this month. In 2016 Democrats turned out at a plus 7% rate as compared to the GOP. Come 2020, and the GOP closed that gap to 1%. However, Trump was badly beaten amongst independents. Fast forward to 2021 and the GOP matched their turnout share from the previous year and greatly increased their share of the independent votes. This despite a very high turnout for an off-year election. It is quite likely New Jersey would have shown similar results, sadly no voter analysis was performed since it was expected to be a blowout. Unlike Virginia, New Jersey had not shown a GOP registration increase, this likely means an even larger share of independent voters. For the GOP if the Democrats are spending money to protect New jersey in 2024 then, they have already lost.

This on its own should terrify Democrats. One more factor, however, may send them into a full-on panic attack. Swing states, such as Arizona, Georgia, and Florida have implemented laws that will greatly complicate the Democrats get out the vote efforts going forward. Other swing states already had laws on the books that were suspended because of Covid, which have since been removed by their republican legislatures or deemed illegal by their state courts. Lastly, several swing states, that already have GOP legislatures will be electing governors next year, and based on the data, will almost certainly flip to the GOP. Once that occurs, they too will pass similar laws. Perhaps I will write something about these laws and whether they truly are suppression, but I’ll save that for another day.

Many may be wondering why are Independents voting GOP, shouldn’t those remaining be Democrat aligned? That too is far more complex than I care to discuss at this point but will definitely write about in the future. For now, the short answer is Biden! The fact is if the GOP jut keeps pace at this point and recovers half of the independent support, they lost in 2020 they will win, Arizona, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The average margin of victory would be nearly 5%. For added fun Colorado, and Virginia would be in play as well. Florida and Texas would be called before a single vote would even be counted and even the most enthusiastic election night watcher would be in bed by 9. Americans will wake up on November 6th 2024 to a Republican president, a House comprised of nearly 270 Republican congressmen, and a GOP supermajority in the senate.

You’ve been warned!