Two things are worth bearing in mind: the first is the fact all political actors are playing for very high stakes in Africa — for some, it is a matter of life and death. African political development has not arrived at a destination where the winner does not take all. Thus those who lose, lose much, very much, so very much indeed; and those who win, win big, very big, they win all before them. That is the reason, I think, African elections will always be fraught with difficulty — with or without modern technology.

The second factor worth considering is as follows: it ties in with the above point. Because Africa is as yet to craft a political narrative in which the loser may feel safe to remain at home, that is, not be driven into exile or worse; it is highly unlikely that those who lose will leave the political stage graciously. By ‘those’ I mean all the president’s men and women, hangers-on and what have you. These are the people for whom the president’s loss is felt most keenly, and it is they who are most likely to resort to violence. Loss of power is to them like death. Thus the issue is not so much as the person of the ‘president’ per se, but those about him. African presidents live in a paradoxical world in which they appear to have immerse power, but the same time they are prisoners to those around them.

    Stephen Kamugasa, thekamugasachallenge

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