Skanda Amarnath

Sep 18, 2020

How The Fed Jammed In A Penalty Rate Requirement For All Emergency Lending When It Didn’t Have To

Authors: Skanda Amarnath, Alex Williams, and Arnab Datta This piece provides an overview of how the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) decided to require all emergency lending authorized under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act be conducted at a “penalty rate,” as well as its policy ramifications. In December 2013, when…

Federal Reserve

11 min read

How The Fed Jammed In A Penalty Rate Requirement For All Emergency 13(3) Lending When It Didn’t…

Aug 27, 2020

By Doubling Down On Inflation Targeting, The Fed Is At Risk of Forgetting Lessons From 2008 & 2011

The Fed has chosen to double down on an inflation-oriented framework for setting monetary policy. While there are some advantages in the current environment to an “average inflation targeting” scheme that affirmatively permits inflation to rise at least modestly past 2%, this approach is not particularly robust to a scenario…

Inflation Targeting

10 min read

Jul 29, 2020

The Fed Still Needs To Do Its Part — Six Ways To Improve The Evans Rule To Recover Jobs And Wages

Authors: Skanda Amarnath & Sudiksha Joshi The previous post made the case for why the Evans Rule, when evaluated in the full context of fiscal austerity and a deleveraging household sector, was an underrated policy success. …

Forward Guidance

19 min read

The Fed Still Needs To Do Its Part — Six Ways To Improve The Evans Rule To Recover Jobs And Wages

Jul 28, 2020

The Success of the Evans Rule and The Case For State-Based Quantitative Forward Guidance

Author: Skanda Amarnath & Sudiksha Joshi While the Federal Reserve (Fed) cannot unilaterally deliver a swift recovery from the COVID-19 economic recession, it can still play a useful supporting role through its commitment to keep interest rates low. The Fed faces the same zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint that it…

Forward Guidance

9 min read

Jun 12, 2020

How Congress Can Stop The Fed From Dragging Its Feet In How It Lends To Municipalities

Summary: The pricing of the Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF) makes it virtually irrelevant for most municipal debt issuers because current market prices are well above those that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is offering. The success or failure of the MLF should be judged not solely by current municipal bond yields…

Municipal Bonds

7 min read

How Congress Can Stop The Fed From Dragging Its Feet In How It Lends To Municipalities

Mar 15, 2020

The Fed Can And Should Support State Government Efforts To Respond To COVID-19 Right Now

Authors: Skanda Amarnath (Employ America), Yakov Feygin (Berggruen Institute) State governments are on the front line of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout. In the coming weeks, they will be subject to increasing demands to expand healthcare capacity and support existing initiatives, all while tax revenue dries up and…

Public Health

8 min read

The Fed Can And Should Support State Government Efforts To Respond To COVID-19 Right Now

Mar 9, 2020

COVID-19 and Low Interest Rates Make Fiscal Stimulus And Enhanced Automatic Stabilizers A No-Brainer

The impact of COVID-19 is likely to be sizeable. Regardless of the precise composition of the shock to supply and demand, further macroeconomic policy action is now necessary. The Fed can cut the benchmark Federal Funds Rate a few more times, but only Congress and the White House can provide…

Fiscal Stimulus

8 min read

Feb 6, 2020

Tracking Gross Labor Income In Real-Time Without Revisions

This article is intended to serve as a follow-up to the #FloorGLI proposal in “Floor It! Fixing the Fed’s Framework With Paychecks, Not Prices.” The official national accounts estimate of gross labor income (GLI) is based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), but because of sharp revisions…

Employment

5 min read

Tracking Gross Labor Income In Real-Time Without Revisions

Aug 12, 2019

The Fed’s Revelations About The Labor Market Warrant A New Approach To Policy

The Fed now recognizes that its interventions have helped to create millions of jobs and promoted a better equilibrium in the long run. A deeper shift to its reaction function is now needed. Fed Communication Suggests Recognition Of A New Reality Chair Powell’s recent statements reveal a fundamental shift in…

Economics

6 min read

The Fed’s Revelations About The Labor Market Warrant A New Approach To Policy

Jun 14, 2019

Are Recessions Rare? Depends On The Definition: Lessons From The Prime-Age Employment Rate

Recessions are commonly defined as real GDP contracting for two consecutive quarters, but this definition is both arbitrary and heavily biased by working-age population growth. If we hypothetically translated that definition to the prime-age employment-to-population ratio, then recessions would appear sooner, last longer, and occur more frequently. …

Recession

4 min read

Skanda Amarnath

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Skanda is the Director of Research & Analysis at Employ America. He was previously an economist at MKP Capital Management and a research analyst at the NY Fed.

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How The Fed Jammed In A Penalty Rate Requirement For All Emergency Lending When It Didn’t Have To

By Doubling Down On Inflation Targeting, The Fed Is At Risk of Forgetting Lessons From 2008 & 2011

The Fed Still Needs To Do Its Part — Six Ways To Improve The Evans Rule To Recover Jobs And Wages

The Success of the Evans Rule and The Case For State-Based Quantitative Forward Guidance

How Congress Can Stop The Fed From Dragging Its Feet In How It Lends To Municipalities

The Fed Can And Should Support State Government Efforts To Respond To COVID-19 Right Now

COVID-19 and Low Interest Rates Make Fiscal Stimulus And Enhanced Automatic Stabilizers A No-Brainer

Tracking Gross Labor Income In Real-Time Without Revisions

The Fed’s Revelations About The Labor Market Warrant A New Approach To Policy

Are Recessions Rare? Depends On The Definition: Lessons From The Prime-Age Employment Rate

Skanda Amarnath

Employ America

Secretary Janet Yellen

John Ganz

Edoardo Saravalle

Sudiksha Joshi