The St. Louis Cardinals Season is upon us (!!!) but questions remain
Thank the good Lord, St. Louis Cardinals baseball is almost back folks.
Despite COVID, labor strife and bad faith negotiations conspiring to cancel the season, Major League Baseball managed to get it together and will play ball.
On July 24th, the Cardinals will begin their quest for a second straight National League Central division championship and their 12th World Series championship.
As James Earl Jones said, “the one constant through all the years has been baseball.”
Enough of my romanticizing though, the Cardinals have bigger fish to fry.
This season is a 60 game sprint rather than the usual 162 game marathon. The decisions right out of the gate are much more important than they would normally be.
Who will be the Cardinals fifth starter? The closer? Who’s the opening day left fielder? What will the lineup look like? There are ways that it should go (according to me) and ways that it seems to be going (according to Mike Shildt). Who will be right remains to be seen. My money’s on me though.
The Fifth Starter
Jack Flaherty and Adam Wainwright have already been announced as starters with Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson expected to join them shortly. Barring an unforeseen injury or surprise choice, there will be a single spot for one of Kwang-Hyun Kim, Carlos Martinez, Austin Gomber or Daniel Ponce de Leon.
Gomber and Ponce de Leon had strong pre season performances, but appear to be on the outside looking in as Kim and Martinez battle it out for the final spot.
I wouldn’t mind going with a six-man rotation, but Shildt has already said that he is going with five starters so it has to be one or the the other.
What should happen: Kim wins the job
Kim (known affectionately as KK) signed with the Cardinals this offseason following a stellar 12-year stint in South Korea. He has been nothing short of spectacular since coming to America. Kim pitched eight scoreless innings in spring training with 11 strikeouts. His first start during summer camp saw him go five innings, throwing 69 pitches while allowing one hit and striking out five.
KK has a nasty four-pitch repertoire. He works all three levels of the zone effectively and keeps the hitters guessing. He forces a fair amount of bad swings. He’s only thrown 13 innings but the stuff and track record is there for him to take the spot.
That is to take nothing away from Carlos. He has shown he can be a borderline ace level starter when he’s right, but he didn’t exactly light it up at spring training and his summer camp start was a mixed bag.
I know Martinez wants to start, but them’s the breaks. However, it looks like Carlos will get his wish.
What will happen: Carlos Martinez is the fifth starter, Kim heads to the bullpen
Which brings us to the next question…
The Closer
Jordan Hicks has opted out. Giovanny Gallegos just made it to summer camp. Martinez is tracking to be the fifth starter.
The rest of the options are like going to a buffet but it only has leafy greens. Sure there are many choices but none of them are particularly appealing.
The Cardinals need to leave the leafy greens buffet and hit up the Golden Corral.
What should happen: Carlos Martinez is the ninth inning man yet again.
The final reason Kim should be the fifth starter is the Cardinals need Martinez to shut down games.
Martinez converted 24-of-27 save chances last season. He had a 3.17 ERA with 53 strikeouts in 48 innings. His stuff is electric. That’s never been the question for Carlos.
I know it felt like a rollercoaster every time Martinez came in to close a game last year, but the majority of the time Cardinals fans got off the ride with our limbs intact.
Making Martinez the closer and Kim the fifth starter takes out two birds with one stone. It’s not looking like that will be the case, which leads to… drum roll please…
What will actually happen: Ryan Helsley will be closing games, at least temporarily.
Look I didn’t like typing it anymore than you liked reading it, but there aren’t many better options.
Andrew Miller has experience but he wasn’t particularly good last season and the Cardinals seem to like him as a setup man.
John Gant fell apart in the second half of last season.
Tyler Webb is the anti Gant. He started terribly and finished strong. However, he’s a lefty specialist and doesn’t have traditional closer stuff.
And if Junior Fernandez or Brett Cecil is the closer, me and Mike Shildt are going to square up.
Honestly I’d be happy with Gomber, Ponce de Leon or Kim as the closer if they aren’t going to make the rotation, but they are probably going to be multi-inning guys out of the pen.
Which leaves Ryan Helsley. And there is at least a case for it. He had a 2.95 ERA in 36 innings last season and didn’t allow a run in five innings during the postseason.
Helsley has a high 90s fastball, a high 80s cutter/slider and by all accounts has been developing his changeup, which would hopefully bring his strikeouts to a closer’s level.
Ideally, Helsley would get a middle relief role to show last year wasn’t a fluke, but he’s the best STL has got right now.
Hopefully Gallegos can get up to speed quickly and he’ll take over the ninth. Until then though, Cardinals fans have to hold our nose, take a big bite of the spinach that is Helsley and hope it’s not too bad.
And who knows, maybe we’ll actually like it?
Left Field
Most of the lineup from last year is back. Left field is the only open spot following the departure of Marcell Ozuna. I actually don’t mind the decision to not bring back Ozuna despite his solid production last season, because one man is ready to take that spot and run with it for the next 15 to 20 years.
What should happen: Dylan Carlson is the starting left fielder. Now and for years to come.
Carlson is the top prospect in the organization and one of the top 20 prospects in all of baseball. Carlson slashed .292/.372/.542 combined at Double A and Triple A last season, including a .361/.418/.681 once he was called up to Memphis. He hit 26 home runs and stole 20 bases. He has a special power-speed combo and could be exactly the jolt of life the lineup needs.
Carlson strikes out around 25% of the time but he has a good eye, as shown by his on base percentage and should drop that strikeout rate as he gets more experience.
What will happen: Tyler O’Neill is given his chance to be an everyday player.
It makes some sense as O’Neill is still only 25, but he hasn’t exactly lit it up so far. He’s struck out in about a third of his big league at bats up to this point and struck out in 14 of 32 at bats in spring training.
That is supposed to be offset by his power but that hasn’t always been the case as he has 14 home runs in 271 at bats. That would be in the low 30s over a whole season. Is 30 home runs worth the 200 strikeouts? Not for me. And unlike Carlson, O’Neill hasn’t shown a patience and eye that would suggest his strikeout rate will drop.
I hope O’Neill proves me wrong. Maybe he can provide enough power that the strikeouts don’t matter. He just hasn’t shown me enough to warrant penciling him in as an everyday starter though.
Lineup
Third base was looking like it would be a competition, but the adding of the DH in the NL for this season takes care of that. Tommy Edman will be the third baseman and Matt Carpenter will be the DH. It could’ve been a lot different though.
How it should be:
Wong 2B
Edman RF
Arenado 3B
Goldschmidt 1B
Ozuna LF
Carpenter DH
Carlson CF
DeJong SS
Molina C
I kid. Kind of. Anyway that’s all pipe dreams.
What it will actually be:
Wong 2B
Edman 3B
Goldschmidt 1B
DeJong SS
Carpenter DH
Molina C
O’Neill LF
Fowler RF
Bader CF
I would be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned. It doesn’t look pretty. Hopefully it can get the job done.
If not, at least the Cardinals should still have their pitching and defense. That should be enough to carry us to another division title.
Can that lineup win a World Series? I don’t know. If someone were to ask me though I’m saying hell yeah it will. One thing is for certain though, Cardinals baseball is back and I couldn’t be happier.
