This election is historic, and not only because the leading candidates are a woman, a Jewish socialist, two Hispanic men, and a media mogul, but also because of the prevalence of social media. Even as recent as 2012, social media wasn’t as pervasive as it is today. Snapchat was really just becoming a thing. News wasn’t spreading like wildfire through Twitter at the rate it does today. Facebook didn’t have the idea of “trending.” Most would probably agree that the expanded connectedness of the world is a benefit to our political process, exposing the political variety of our country and enabling different kinds of politicians to find success like never before. I highly doubt a candidate like Bernie Sanders could have built the momentum he has this cycle back in 2012, and a lot of that has to do with the virality of his movement.
But that’s not why I’m writing this. I’m writing this because of a problem I see emerging this election that directly rises from our increased connectedness. Over the past few weeks I have seen so many articles making broad sweeping claims about which candidates have to win lest we face the death of America. “Bernie Sanders Must Be the Democratic Choice to Beat Trump.” “Why Electing Hillary Clinton Is More Important Than Electing Obama in ’08.” “If Cruz Becomes the Republican Nom, the GOP Is Dead.” And it’s not just articles, but impassioned supporters citing polls and trends to point towards disaster unless their candidate is the chosen one.
Sigh…
None of those things are true. Well, whether or not electing Hillary is “More Important” than Obama’s election was is a matter of opinion I suppose. But the basis for this hyperbolic shouting that ends up reverberating around the echo chamber is flawed. Extremely flawed. And I don’t mean that polling as a concept is flawed. It’s not, it’s actually, when done right, quite a reliable science. However, WE ARE NOT IN A GENERAL ELECTION YET.
What do I mean by that? Neither the Democratic or Republican nominee has been decided. People may be able to give you a 20 page thesis on why their candidate has already won, but they’re wrong. It isn’t decided, on either side. Anything could happen. And until we have those candidates chosen, we will have no true indication of how things might play out. And even then, that doesn’t preclude a 3rd party candidate like Michael Bloomberg (rumored to be considering a run) from coming in and creating chaos across the electoral map. Yes, I have seen the polling data that pits each of the popular candidates against one another. The thing is, that is only an accurate representation of how things would play out if the general election were held THAT DAY.
There are months left before the next President will be chosen, and within those months, people’s views will shift depending on how the months unfold. In some cases, dramatically. One reason the election cycle starts so early is so that candidates have the opportunity to make their case to the American people, hoping to sway the people their way, particularly crucial for outsider candidates like Sanders who must convince the general electorate that democratic socialism is OKAY. Crises sometimes emerge. Remember how close to the ’08 election our economy collapsed? Obama benefited immensely from it because he was able to pin the greatest financial disaster in the United States since the Great Depression on Republican policy and leaders. Aside from crises, skeletons are pulled from closets that can have huge impacts on a candidate. Who doesn’t at least entertain that Clinton’s email scandal could throw her candidacy into turmoil or Donald Trump’s possibly criminal tax avoiding schemes could render his candidacy moot or Marco Rubio could have another malfunction on the debate stage and crumble?
Don’t get me wrong, I love the political engagement I’m seeing from my peers and beyond this cycle. I really don’t want that to stop. But what I do want is an end to the exaggeration, to wildly extreme claims on insufficient information. Ultimately, I want people to look at things in a measured and realistic fashion. To do their research. To engage not in the reactionary, click-baity, hyperbolic way that the Internet seems to function, but in a thoughtful way. We can do better. We deserve better.