Welcome to Mark Prior’s Lab
Noah Syndergaard waited for reporters inside the Dodgers’ spring training facility in Glendale, Arizona on February 28th. He threw two scoreless innings in the Dodgers’ spring training game against the Cincinnati Reds, striking out two. It’s been a long journey here for the 6'6 righty known as “Thor”, as he still navigates a return from Tommy John surgery, and acclimates to his 4th team since 2021.
He earned his nickname as a young starting pitcher for the New York Mets, for his physical similarities to Chris Hemsworth, and for throwing lightning bolts in the form of a fastball that averaged 99 MPH. His hammer, a wipeout slider that struck out 42.2% of hitters from 2017 to 2019. He also displayed two above-average pitches in his changeup and sinker, which made him one of the most formidable young pitchers in the world.
Syndergaard posted a 3.31 ERA in 716 innings from his debut in 2015 to 2019. He struck out 26.4% of all batters in that span. There were just nine pitchers from 2015 to 2019 who threw at least 700 innings, had an ERA under 3.40, and struck out at least 25% of hitters. When you look at that list of pitchers, it’s full of future Hall of Famers: Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, deGrom, just to name a few. Noah Syndergaard is on this list, demonstrating his outstanding ability to stay healthy, prevent runs, and strike out hitters. This is also including from the start of his career and a partial muscle tear that limited him to seven starts in 2017.
An MRI during spring training in 2020 showed a tear in the UCL in his right elbow, which needed Tommy John surgery to repair. This was a huge blow to the righty who was entering the last two seasons before he was set to hit free agency. Recovery from Tommy John is one of the most difficult tasks for any athlete, one that demands a perfect training program and plenty of perseverance. Missing over a year of baseball is a huge test to physical and mental resilience.
He returned to throw 2 innings in 2021 with the Mets, and then left to the Angels in free agency. He was hoping to return to form, but was met with fairly subpar results. He recorded a 3.94 ERA in 134.2 innings in the 2022 season, which was split between the Angels and the Phillies after a midseason trade. He threw three innings in his start of Game 3 of the World Series for Philadelphia, but allowed two runs and earned the loss. A fastball that once averaged 99 MPH now averaged 94 MPH, a significant decline in velocity for a once dominant pitcher.
But the 30-year-old Syndergaard was not ready to give up on his recovery from injury, and neither were the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Enter Mark Prior.
The Dodgers have found sustained success through their player development system. There is a seemingly endless list of names of players who came through their system and dramatically improved, and reclamation projects who polish their issues and return to form. Syndergaard will tell you first hand, as he did in his introductory press conference. “I feel like everything they touch turns to gold.”
Last season, the focus was on Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney. Anderson had spent the majority of his career in the NL West as a soft-tossing lefty. He owned a 4.62 ERA in 623.2 career innings. He signed a 1-year, $8 million deal with the Dodgers ahead of 2022 spring training.
The Dodgers needed to fill some holes in the rotation after the departure of Max Scherzer, losing Dustin May to Tommy John surgery, the then-on-going investigation into Trevor Bauer, and the concerning injury histories of Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Walker Buehler, and Tony Gonsolin. In short, there were a lot of question marks and wild cards to a team whose fan base hadn’t been accustomed to.
Changes to his mechanics and pitch usage came with massive benefits for Anderson. He used his changeup more, and became a master of pitch sequencing. Batters hit .179 against the changeup. He used the changeup more often when he was also ahead in the count, going from 23.6% of the time in 2021 to 34.7% in 2022, his most-used pitch when ahead. When they were behind in the count, hitters had a .183 wOBA against Anderson.
Anderson’s fastball also became a lot more useful just from better pitch selection. From this Baseball Savant heat map (Figure 1) of his fastball landing spots, a lot of fastballs that he threw found themselves in the middle of the zone compared to previous seasons. He used his fastball early in counts as well, as on 0–0 counts, he used his fastball 50% of the time, up 8% from 2021. On 1–0 counts, 43.5% fastballs, up from 29.1% the previous season. And, in two-strike counts, it was his changeup, up to 37.2% from 23.8%.
Prior and Co. also had him use his cutter as his primary pitch against lefties. His cutter and four-seam usage against lefties, respectively, went from 36.4% / 32.6% to 43.8% / 26.9%. When he was ahead in the count against lefties, he went from using the four-seamer 24% of the time to just 8.3%, instead opting for his cutter and sinker.
This all culminated in a breakout campaign in 2022, with Anderson selected to his first career All-Star Game, taking a no-hitter into the 9th inning, and going 15–5 with a career best 2.57 ERA in 178.2 innings. His wOBA and xwOBA dropped 48 and 40 points, respectively. Anderson became a Dodgers fan favorite in just one season, and he obtained a 3-year, $39 million contract with the Angels in the following offseason.
Tyler Anderson was not an anomaly in Mark Prior’s lab, not even the only starting pitcher in his Dodgers’ free agent class who broke out. Andrew Heaney’s turn-around might’ve been even more remarkable.
Entering his last season before free agency in 2021, Andrew Heaney had a career 4.44 ERA in 504.2 innings. He had always struggled with preventing the long ball, giving up 1.52 HR/9, but was decent at striking out hitters, at an 8.92 K/9. The 2021 season was not kind to Heaney. With the Angels, he had a 5.83 ERA in 94 innings, but struck out 28.2% of batters. That last statistic was admirable enough for the Yankees to swing a trade for him at the deadline, looking to get the most out of him to provide a boost in the rotation.
It did not go well. Heaney had a 7.32 ERA in 35.2 innings with the Yankees, and gave up a staggering 3.28 HR/9. For reference, the average HR/9 in Major League Baseball during 2021 was 1.26. Heaney was taken out of the rotation entirely, and was designated for assignment prior to the start of the postseason.
Still, the strikeout rate and his natural stuff were intriguing factors. By some accounts, he got unlucky in 2021. Despite a 5.83 ERA, he had a 4.12 xFIP that season. It was a safe bet that a 3.28 HR/9 was going to drop dramatically, and there was still a lot to get out of him. There were some good signs, as per Baseball Savant, he was in the 92nd percentile in chase rate, and in the 90th percentile in spin rate on his four-seam fastball.
The Dodgers took a chance on Heaney, who they signed to a 1-year, $8.5 million deal to join the rotation. Heaney had a three-pitch mix that included the same fastball which, despite the high spin rate, had been plummeted by hitters to a .367 wOBA in 2021.
Mark Prior and the Dodgers’ pitching operations coordinators made a bold move so late in Heaney’s career, dropping his curveball which he had used 22% of the time in 2021, for a new sweeping slider. Many Dodgers pitchers who worked with Prior have had major success with adopting a new sweeper, including Blake Treinen.
Heaney almost completely got rid of his changeup in favor of a strict two-pitch combo with the fastball and slider. His adjustments in pitch sequencing led to him using his slider a lot more against lefties, who hit an astonishingly low .107 against the pitch in 2022, with a 55.8% whiff rate.
Prior and the Dodgers also went through the careful task of mechanical changes. One noticeable difference would be getting rid of the glove shake during the windup, perhaps a way to get more comfortable grip and hand placement. Heaney also never had a consistent landing spot during his delivery, which used to be a positive to create some unpredictability from the hitters’ view. Hitters caught on, the technique grew fundamentally ineffective, and the inconsistency messed with some of his other delivery mechanisms.
A big reason for his homer-happy tendencies were because, against righties especially, he was revealing the pitch in his hands too early, and his lack of variation in proper sequencing made it easier to differentiate.
Heaney adapted his mechanics to become much smoother, more consistent, and a lot less revealing. He sported a career best 3.10 ERA in 72.2 innings in 2022, and also a career best 35.5% strikeout rate, which was 2nd in the MLB among pitchers who threw at least 70 innings. His 2.46 SIERA also ranked him 3rd among starters with 50+ innings pitched.
Andrew Heaney’s breakout season, in which he finally put every promising feature together, earned him a 2-year $15 million contract with the up-and-coming Rangers this offseason to join their rotation.
Noah Syndergaard made a smart decision with his 1-year $13 million deal to come to Los Angeles, a franchise with a pitching development team that knows best when it comes to improving pitchers quickly.
A big priority for the Dodgers recently has been to build organizational depth. Syndergaard adds to a rotation that has a trio of 2022 All-Stars in Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, and Tony Gonsolin.
He will also be joining Dustin May, who was nicknamed “Gingergaard” upon his debut in 2019 for his similar stature to Syndergaard. May, 25, is another player coming off of Tommy John surgery, his being performed in 2021. In 23 innings before injury in 2021, May had a 2.74 ERA, 1.81 xFIP, and struck out 37.6% of all hitters. He was looking like a prime breakout candidate prior to a UCL tear during a game in Milwaukee against the Brewers.
Walker Buehler, another casualty to Tommy John surgery, will most likely miss the entirety of the 2023 regular season. The Dodgers continue to work closely with him in rehab. But they have experience with getting pitchers back from long-term injury in a safe and successful manner.
Look no further than Tommy Kahnle and Jimmy Nelson, two players who signed with the Dodgers not only to come back from, but also recuperate from long-term injuries.
With the Yankees, Tommy Kahnle was used as a high-leverage arm, playing a crucial role in their 2017 and 2019 playoff runs. He threw 61.1 innings in 2019, to a 3.67 ERA and 2.69 xFIP. His 2020 season, his last before entering free agency, was cut short due to a UCL tear. Kahnle signed with the Dodgers on a 2-year agreement not even six months after he had Tommy John surgery. Kahnle had some setbacks to various injuries in 2022, but impressed when on the mound, posting a 2.84 ERA and 2.39 FIP in 12.2 innings of work. He went back to the Yankees this offseason on a 2-year, $15 million deal.
Jimmy Nelson was a former starter with the Brewers who suffered a serious shoulder injury in 2017, a season in which he went 12–6 with a 3.49 ERA. He pitched in just 22 innings for the Brewers post-injury, and was non-tendered after the 2019 season. The Dodgers signed Nelson to a 1-year $1.25 million deal ahead of 2020 spring training, but a back injury kept him out for the season.
Nelson re-signed the following off-season, and had a 1.86 ERA in 29 innings for the Dodgers before Tommy John surgery shut him down in 2021. Nelson has been in the Dodgers organization since, working his way back from major injuries that have no doubt left a blow, but has been impressing members of the Dodgers organization through this season’s spring training.
Mark Prior and the Los Angeles Dodgers are the perfect organization for pitchers coming off injuries, setbacks, or looking to take a major step forward in their careers. All of these guys have gotten paid in free agency after a quick pit stop in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers aren’t afraid to take risks when it comes to mechanical overhauls or messing with a player’s pitch repertoire. They’ve found major success as an organization, and have gained critical acclaim on the national level by baseball media pundits for their constant ability to find diamonds-in-the-rough. Last season, the Dodgers had two relievers who became valuable assets to the team’s success: Yency Almonte and Evan Phillips.
Yency Almonte was coming off a season where, for the Colorado Rockies, he posted a 7.55 ERA in 47.2 innings out of the bullpen. He was designated for assignment by Colorado, and picked up by the Dodgers on a minor-league deal. This wasn’t the first time a former Rockies reliever was picked up by the Dodgers and became an effective reliever, as Jake McGee had done so in 2020.
Regardless, Almonte’s signing went under the radar. He started the 2022 regular season with the Triple-A Oklahoma City Dodgers, but his evolved pitch repertoire caught the eyes of Dodgers’ executives. He was called up to the MLB team in May, and never looked back.
Almonte developed a nasty pitch arsenal, moving away from the four-seam fastball & slider combo to a sinker & sweeper combo. This was once again the “magical” Prior sweeper at work. It functions as a mix of a curveball and slider in terms of grip, and moves like both sometimes. Almonte’s sweeper was deadly with late break, both posting well above-average measurements in vertical and horizontal movement.
Yency Almonte was, by all accounts, absolutely dominant, with a 1.02 ERA in 35.1 innings thrown in 2022. Yes, a 1.02 ERA. This was the lowest ERA in all of baseball by anyone who threw more than 25 innings in 2022. He had a CSW% of 33.3%, meaning that 1/3 of his pitches in 2022 were either called for a strike or whiffed on by the batter. This ranked 11th by all pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched, with the likes of Edwin Diaz, Jacob deGrom, and Devin Williams above him.
Evan Phillips was another player whose career completely changed with the Dodgers. He had jumped around between the Braves, Orioles, and Rays organizations, and had pitched 57 innings at the MLB level between 2018 and his stint with the Rays in 2021.
Phillips was claimed off waivers in August 2021 by the Dodgers, and threw 10.1 innings for them in the regular season, allowing a 3.48 ERA. He threw 3 key scoreless innings in that postseason, which caught the eyes of Dodgers executives and fans alike.
Prior and Phillips tinkered with his mechanics and pitch arsenal in the offseason, and he developed the sweeper grip as his primary pitch. It generated a 42.5% whiff rate in 2022, and had an average of 2535 RPM of spin. This was an increase in spin from 2021, where he averaged 2361 RPM on his slider. Not only did his spin rate improve with the new grip and functionality, but it was being thrown 2 MPH faster with increased late break. It was, by all raw quantitative measurements, a better pitch.
He also developed an accompanying cutter, which helped significantly in at-bats. The concept of pitch tunneling has become an increasingly popular topic, and Phillips’ approach is a great example of this. It became difficult during at-bats for hitters to differentiate the slider from the cutter, and there was a distinct difference in late movement and velocity between the two.
Phillips developed a sinker during June 2022 to use against right-handed hitters, which he used in 17.5% of the time in such at-bats, and never against left-handed hitters. The average launch angle against the sinker was at -5 degrees, and 80% of contact against the sinker were ground balls. His sinker provided him with another weapon to generate quick outs, and he was deploying it more than his four-seam fastball against righties by July.
Phillips enjoyed a breakout season in 2022, and became one of manager Dave Roberts’ favorite weapons out of the bullpen. He threw 63.0 innings in the regular season, more than he had in his entire career before the Dodgers. He had a 1.14 ERA, struck out 33% of all hitters, and became a fan favorite. His 1.14 ERA was best in baseball among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings. His 2.2 fWAR was tied for 3rd best among all relievers.
Mark Prior pitched at the MLB level for the Chicago Cubs from 2002 to 2006. He was taken 2nd overall by the Cubs in the 2001 MLB Draft, and set a record for the highest signing bonus ever at $10.5 million. At age-22, he made his first All-Star game in 2003. Prior’s career was ultimately cut short by injury hurdles, but his knowledge and feel for the game was what made him such a dominant force in his limited playing years.
After retirement, Prior was hired by the San Diego Padres to join their front office before becoming their minor league pitching coordinator. During this time, the Padres acquired pitching prospect Chris Paddack, whose Tommy John rehab plan was coordinated and overseen at the time by Prior.
The Dodgers brought in Prior as their bullpen coach in 2018, and was promoted to pitching coach in 2020 after the retirement of Rick Honeycutt. Since taking over the position, the Dodgers’ pitching staff has consistently ranked among the best in baseball. Let’s look at some measurements of how elite they’ve been since Prior’s Lab opened shop:
The Dodgers allowed a 2.93 ERA. That’s the best in baseball, with the second best being the Houston Astros at 3.50.
The Dodgers have struck out 3581 hitters, third in baseball.
The Dodgers have allowed 2645 hits, best in baseball.
The Dodgers have a 29.2% CSW%, second in baseball.
The Dodgers’ bullpen has a 2.91 K/BB, second in baseball.
There’s a reason why the Dodgers have built such a great foundation that appears sustainable for years to come. There’s a reason why they’ve won more games than anyone in recent years. The front office, players, and coaching staff deserve their flowers. None of their success happens without any one of those elements not being as good as they are. But the Dodgers would be a completely different story without Mark Prior.
Pitchers jump at the opportunity to learn under him, to work with him and the other coaches on the team to change their careers. There are three big priorities for players: winning games, helping their team win games, and getting paid.
Mark Prior and the Los Angeles Dodgers do that, and they do that well. Reclamation projects, under-the-radar transactions paying off, and careers taking off. Noah Syndergaard made an exceptional choice.
Opposing hitters beware, Prior’s Lab is cooking.
Notes: all stats are from Baseball Savant and FanGraphs.
Links:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/
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