Has Pokémon GO peaked? The data say “Yes.”

By Robbie Allan

We’re ready to call it. The USA has hit peak Pokémon GO. The game grew incredibly quickly, eclipsing even Google Maps, but its decline has begun.

You can define “peak Pokémon” in a number of ways. In this post, we’ll examine three different indicators, and they all point to Pokémon GO hitting its peak in the US within a week or so of its release.

First, for usage of the game itself, we’ll look at daily active user (DAU) data from SurveyMonkey Intelligence. Second, to gauge consumer interest, we’ll look at the app’s daily download rates. Finally, we’ll look at search activity on Google around the term “Pokémon GO”.

Pokémon GO usage peaked on July 14th, a week after release

In terms of daily active users, the largest day for Pokémon Go in the US was July 14th, exactly one week after the game’s debut. We estimate that just over 25 million smartphone users played the game on that day, though usage levels were fairly steady at just over 25 million users few a few days around that time before declining.

Downloads of Pokémon GO peaked the day it was released

Surprisingly, downloads of Pokémon GO were largest on the day it was released, July 7th. Most successful apps, including previous record-setting hit games Draw Something and Candy Crush Saga, experience a slow start. These games hit their daily-download peaks some months after initial release. Pokémon GO is unusual not just for the size of its success but also the incredible speed of its ascent up the download charts.

Search interest in Pokémon Go peaked on July 16th

The number of Google searches for the term “Pokémon GO” closely mirrors the actual usage of the Pokémon GO app, with a relatively flat peak from July 13 to 16. The spike on July 12th mirrors the download spike on the same day.

Where to from here?

What’s remarkable about the explosion of activity around Pokémon GO is how quickly it’s happened. Previous blockbuster titles Candy Crush and Draw Something took months to gain momentum, gather tens of millions of users, and hit peak usage. Pokémon GO achieved the same thing in a single week.

And there’s still a long way to go. As we’ve seen from other games there’s still every chance that the game attracts millions of users (and makes millions of dollars) for months, and even years to come. Plus, the game is not yet available in all countries of the world, with some major countries yet to enter into the hype cycle.

This post originally appeared on July 21, 2016 on the blog of SurveyMonkey Intelligence, a provider of competitive intelligence for the mobile app industry.

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