Sanders vs. Clinton — It’s just pragmatic.
I prefer Sanders. But wait: Don’t dismiss me, please! It’s not that I just love Bernie Sanders. I don’t even know him (but that bird thing was cool). I promise, I’m not a naive idealist who wants free everything. I fully acknowledge that he is not a messiah, despite being a socialist Jew.
I’m just pragmatic. I don’t want Trump to be the president.
Bernie Sanders will beat Trump. Hillary Clinton might beat Trump.
Because:
1. All the polls say so. Look:
Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump (last ten polls):
Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump (last ten polls):
Those results are from ten different polls. Recent ones. Clinton’s average margin of victory over Trump is 4.6%. Sanders’s average margin of victory over Trump is 14.1%.
Polls show Sanders as stronger than Clinton against Trump. Polls aren’t everything. Their predictive success at this stage is mixed. But it seems strange to ignore all of them. It’s not one outlier poll. It’s all of them. Should we really ignore all of the polls?
Maybe when all the polls agree on something, it’s worth considering.
2. Independent voters prefer Sanders to anyone.
Independent voters:
- Make up 42% of voters (so they’re important to win).
- Prefer Trump to Clinton.
- Prefer Sanders to Trump.
3. Sanders does better than Clinton & Trump in key swing states.
- Florida:
Sanders 44% vs. Trump 42%.
Clinton 43% vs. Trump 42%.
- Ohio:
Sanders 43% vs. Trump 41%.
Clinton 39% vs. Trump 43%.
- Pennsylvania:
Sanders 47% vs. Trump 41%.
Clinton 43% vs. Trump 42%.
The next president will probably need to win at least two of these states.
Sanders also had a stronger primary showing in other swing states like Wisconsin (where Sanders won more votes than Trump or Cruz), New Hampshire, and Colorado.
4. Sanders commands a grassroots infrastructure. Clinton doesn’t.
Bernie Sanders has a grassroots army. His campaign has built an impressive infrastructure.
Those are important for winning the presidency, as Barack Obama showed in 2008, and BONUS: for passing a legislative agenda, as the Tea Party regrettably showed.
Trump will have grassroots voters in the general election. Democrats need to beat them with their own grassroots voters. Clinton does not have them. Sanders’s grassroots army will not flock to Clinton. Some will definitely vote for her, but few will fight for her. They will fight for Sanders.
5. Sanders will draw Democrats + Independents + Left-leaners = bigger number of voters.
Sanders will draw traditional Democratic voters plus a lot of Independents and most hardcore left-leaning voters (i.e., the green party, Nader folk).
Clinton will draw traditional Democratic voters and only some Independents and few hardcore left-leaning voters.
The former number is larger than the latter number.
Also 33% of Sanders’s supporters wouldn’t vote for Clinton.
6. People like Sanders, don’t like Clinton.
Election success often comes down to whom people like / trust more.
The more exposure Clinton has gotten in this election season, the less people like her (based on ten recent polls):
The more exposure Sanders has gotten in this election season, the more people like him (based on ten recent polls):
People like Sanders more than Clinton. According to history, favorability correlates with electability. Look:
The chart shows that the winners tended to have higher favorability ratings than their opponents. Sanders has by far the highest favorability ratings of any of the candidates.
Sanders = +10
Clinton = -13
Trump = -22
Likability matters in elections.
It’s fair to think that Bernie Sanders’s favorability will decrease once more Republicans smear him. But for his favorability to reach Clinton levels would require a huge fall and to reach Trump levels would require a tremendous decline.
I guess his favorability could fall that dramatically, but it seems safer to go with the candidate who is way ahead and would have to fall precipitously than the one who is already very unfavorable (and will probably become more so as the downward trend indicates).
This evidence seems to show that as more people know about Sanders, they like him more. Clinton and Sanders will be equally subjected to Republican lies and smears. There’s no reason to believe Sanders will be any more susceptible to them than Clinton would be. And he’s already way ahead so has farther to fall. That seems safer.
7. Clinton could get into trouble, which would give Rambo levels of ammo to Republicans.
Some say Clinton could be indicted and others say she probably won’t be. The fact is, she is under criminal investigation and that alone is ammo for Republicans. If she ends up being indicted, that will be even more ammo. Even if she probably won’t be, it’s still a risk. Sanders has no risk of being indicted and is not currently under criminal investigation. That seems safer.
I am not a crazy Sanders fan. I am pragmatic. Most data seems to suggest that Sanders is a safer candidate against Trump. So I support Sanders. Plus the birds like him.
