Brexit: why and what we do next

They say history repeats itself. Although not strictly true, there are definitely lessons to be learnt from the past. In times of change, uncertainty and economic turmoil people have always looked to scapegoats to blame for their situation. It’s also true that this heady mix also draws people towards the extremes. And so it was last Friday when the UK voted to leave the EU.

The vote to leave was won in the old industrial heartlands of England and Wales. Analysis of those voting to leave shows that a large percentage were predominantly from the traditional ’working class’. Immigration may have been the rallying cause but the realities lie in uncertainty, change and economic turmoil. Why do I say this? In the Welsh valleys which voted overwhelmingly to leave, immigration levels have been the lowest in the UK. The vote to leave was a protest vote. A chance to stick two fingers up to the establishment who have neglected a significant part of the population for the best part of thirty years. The seeds for this vote were sown in the early eighties, with the start of industrial decline and the politics of Thatcherism. Since the eighties we have seen a steady decline in industrial Britain with coal mines and steel manufacturing withering from the onslaught of globalisation. General manufacturing has also declined. Wages have fallen in real terms. The policies of Thatcherism have largely been continued by successive governments of right and left. We’re now in a post-industrial age of low skilled jobs, paying low wages; zero hours contracts; incomes falling in real terms; stretched public services suffering from lack of investment; private utilities acting as near monopolies and large parts of the country in deprivation. Coupled with this decline has been the phenomenal growth of London, acting like an economic black hole sucking investment, work and people from the regions. Successive governments since Thatcher have been happy to champion financial services above investment in R&D, education, skills and advanced manufacturing.

Then along came the financial crash of 2008. Despite being caused by the financial services market, governments were forced to bail out the bankers. Banks were too important to fail, unlike coal mines and blast furnaces. Post crash came austerity driven by a Government ideology of slashing public services to ensure the nanny state is squeezed below levels last seen in the 1930’s. Is there any wonder huge swathes of the population struggling in this new landscape feel no-one has their back.

The post industrial landscape is hard to fathom. It’s particularly hard to put a lot of different, complicated things into perspective when you’ve lost your job; when you’re struggling to feed your kids; when your community is dead and when you see no future and no hope. In these circumstances of change and insecurity it’s easy to latch onto scapegoats. The Blair government opened up access to the UK to new members of the EU, which brought over 400,000 EU immigrants in a very short period of time. When you can’t get a job, it must be those immigrants who have taken it. When you can’t get to see a doctor, it’s because of all the immigrants. The immigrants even have preferential treatment to council housing.

Throw into this mix the uncertainty and insecurity caused by terrorism and perhaps the biggest movement of refugees in history. No surprise that the same politics of extremism we see in the UK is also being played out in the US. A hugely divided society suffering from the effects of post-industrialisation; conservative policies, uncertainty and insecurity. Trump supporters fall into the same camp as the leave supporters here. The only difference is there’s no EU to blame in the US so they blame the Mexicans and Muslims. “Let’s build a wall”. The same is also true across Europe with the rise of the right in France, Holland and Poland and the hard left in Greece and Spain.

Our political system (first past the post) pretty much gives us only two choices of Government — Labour or Conservative. When those parties ‘morph‘ into one and act almost without distinction for a period of 30 years, it’s not surprising that voters get disillusioned with the political establishment. There is no mechanism to bring about change. Large parts of the country don’t feel the parties are acting in their best interests. Step into the fray UKIP. Their message is clear — it’s the immigrants & the EU to blame. Trump supporters blame the Mexicans for stealing their jobs & bringing drugs. Both playing to scapegoats and xenophobia. The referendum was an opportunity to say ‘sod you’ to out of touch politicians who have been kicking the can down the road for the last 30 years. Our politicians and the establishment only have themselves to blame.

So what now? The genie is well and truly out of the bottle. The country is severely divided — between young and old; haves and have nots; between regions and between the leavers and those who wished to remain. People are angry, on all sides. The old ways of doing things won’t work. We need a new political and economic perspective. We can’t kick the can down the road any longer. Brexit might work and we can look to other countries as examples.

For what they are worth here are my suggestions:

Devolution

We must recognise the realities of the referendum. An overwhelming majority in Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain part of the EU. I believe that is a sufficient test to let both countries decide whether to become independent or significant devo-max. Wales should be included. Our constitutional settlement is frankly a mess. It’s time we used this situation to sort it out. If the countries opt for independence then look to a form of Nordic Council as a solution.

ii. Progressive left

The Labour party is broken. It’s had its day and it’s time for something new. The Liberals and Greens need to face the reality that they will never ever get to form a government. The best they can hope for is a handful of MPs. Now is the time to either form a coalition of the progressive left or form a new progressive left party focused on policies to tackle climate change and for the forthcoming machine age.

iii. Voting system

We need to change the voting system to proportional representation immediately. First past the post has been a factor in where we are now, because people feel their votes are wasted because the system is slanted in favour of either Labour or Conservative.

General election

There needs to be a general election as soon as the Tories elect a new leader. To impose a new prime minister (who is likely to be a right wing Brexiter) on the UK when 48% of the population voted to the contrary is simply unacceptable. There needs to be a new Government with a proper mandate to negotiate exit terms from the EU.

Brexit

We have to accept the only sensible way to move forward is to have access to the single market via the European Economic Area, much like Norway and Switzerland. That will mean compromise on the free movement of people but there is no choice if we want our economy to thrive. Taking the steps outlined below on creating a fairer society and a more balanced economy may overcome the immigration scapegoat we’ve seen played so heavily over the last few months. When the general population feel that the Government is trying to help them hopefully they will feel less inclined to to believe the likes of UKIP.

v. Economy

Rather than standing back and failing to invest the Government needs to change the policies of the previous 30 years. Politicians need to wake up to the reality of the modern world. They need to understand technological change and the impact this will have over the next 30–50 years. They need to consider serious investment in education to ensure young people do have high level skills required for the workforce of 2030. They need to explore things like a basic income for the potentially thousands who will be left out of work by technological change. We need to properly invest in our regions and reduce the pull of London. We need to reduce our carbon footprint and become a country leading the way with new technology. Most importantly we need to work towards a fairer society and narrow the gap between the have’s and have nots. This is going to require a radically different approach to what we’ve had over the last 30 years and more akin to the one taken by Nordic countries.

vi. Education

We must recognise this as one of the single most important pieces of investment for our future. We need to do all we can to make sure that all of our kids have absolutely the best education and as many opportunities as possible. The bar needs to be set high across the board.

Am I optimistic? Right now, no. Our politicians seem hellbent on infighting rather than looking forward. However, I am encouraged by the involvement young people played in the last days of the referendum and of the anger I’m seeing by normally apolitical people. I’m hoping this shock and anger will bring about change, because it’s sorely needed.