Predictions for 2018
More Peaceful Relations With North Korea: Kim Jong Un’s New Year speech was a rollercoaster for whoever heard tidbits of it. I believe the speech shows how North Korea is opening up to warmer relations with the rest of the world. First of all, Kim stated that he has a nuclear button on his desk and that is not a threat but merely a reality. While the part about having a button on his desk is most likely an exaggeration. However Kim is right that North Korea’s nuclear program is now a reality.
I believe that the United States will realize that North Korea’s nuclear program is here to stay. They may not state this however as they still want to act tough but behind closed doors this will become a reality. In addition, in Kim’s speech he stated he wanted peace with South Korea and to send delegates to a peaceful olympics in South Korea. Most likely South Korea will openly wellcome more peaceful relations with North Korea and be fine with recieving their delagates for the games.
With South Korea and North Korea already having more peaceful relations I believe the United States will have to fall into line. The United States as well as the rest of the world will not relieve sanctions nor should they. However the threats of war most likely will most likely be toned down. The United States should jump at more peaceful relations with North Korea since it most likely will stop nuclear proliferation in the region. Regardless, with North Korea’s predicated warmer relations with fellow nations sanctions and embargoes will remain in place. Lastly, I predicate the North Korea and many other nations will not agree to any nuclear deal.
Trumps Approval Ratings Will Improve: Trump’s approval ratings are currently horrific. According to a Monmouth University poll Trump’s approval rating is around 32%. Currently, most of his supporters are people who will support him through anything. So theoretically he can only pick up supporters not lose them. Mostly due to the strong economy Trump’s approval ratings most likely will improve.
The Midterm Elections Will Be Close: Stating the midterm elections will be close is almost already regarded as a fact. There are two likely scenarios I will describe I will discuss below. The Republicans keep a slim majority or the Democrats riding a wave of anti-Trump resentment retake the majority.
The Republicans keeping a majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives is the most likely scenario. With Trump’s approval rating projected to improve so should the Republican parties ratings as a whole. In addition, the Democrats have to gain ground in tough states and retain states which voted for Trump and are majority Republican. With the Republicans keeping the majority it will show that Doug Jones winning the special election race in Alabama was due to a horrific candidate rather than a wave of blue.
A scenario that also is feasible however less likely is the Democrats retake the majority. For this to happen most likely the Republicans will have to not pass any other major piece of legislature and more fighting to occur within the Republican party. Trump’s approval ratings would also to stay close to the same or trend downwards. The Democrats retaking the majority is feasible as they already won a special election in the majority Republican state of Alabama. The midterms elections are still awhile away in politics and it will be easier to predict the results as it gets closer.
The Mueller Probe Will Continue: It seems as if the Mueller probe will continue well into 2018 unless Trump decides to fire Robert Mueller. The latter scenario is not feasible as it would invoke Watergate references and possible constitute obstruction of justice. So it seems plausible that the Russia probe will continue well into 2018.