I wish I could believe that we, as a species, can find the will to unite and do something about climate change before second order feedback loops kick in and we lose control of the process. Unfortunately I think it is going to take crisis before we even start to “get serious” and by then it will probably be too late. The question that interests me, is what will the crisis be that finally gets people to demand action from the planetary elites and scares the elites enough that they become willing to marshal resources to accomplish something?
Right now we are still living in a world where we can get by with mitigation (disaster relief) and some adaptation (building higher levees) but I don’t think that this will last for much longer. It seems clear that the frequency and intensity of climate events is going to increase in the coming decades requiring ever larger amounts of resources to deal with. The question is, when will we stop being able to respond to these events in any meaningful way?
Sadly I think the crisis issue is going to be a climate induced global famine that creates say, five hundred million to a billion climate refugees in a short time (2 to 5 years). I think that will be the “trigger” that breaks the current global paradigm and starts us on a period of intense instability and constant warfare. I don’t think the second half of this century is going to be pleasant. I think we will be very lucky to get to 2099 with only 25% dieback in population globally.
Of course I will be dead by then so for me the matter is mostly academic. What I want to know, is what should my children be doing to try and safeguard their and my grandchildren’s futures?