“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
“Everything started with Crimea and will end with it - the liberation of the peninsula is necessary” President Zelenskyy (part 1)
This war can only end by returning Crimea to Ukraine from Russian control, without Crimea Ukraine can never rebuild their economy. Without Crimea Russia’s imperial nightmarish dreams will never stop
Last year, when this full-scale invasion had begun, many experts had forecasted a collapse of Ukraine within weeks or months. Initially, Ukraine was pushed back in the South, East, and North. So resisting or ever retaking all that land seemed like a distant phantasy to many. I wasn’t one of these voices, as I knew that wars turn into bloody quagmires very quickly. Ukraine’s will to resist in the first three days made me confident in their victory in the long term. Since then, Ukraine has rolled back Russia in the North and the East and is currently gearing up for its spring/summer offensive.
Kofman and Hodges assume this offensive will begin in earnest within the next 30 to 90 days
Kofman believes that it won’t be one large offensive but rather that it will take several months to meet its primary objective: The liberation of Crimea. What targets does Ukraine have in mind? How can Ukraine manage to retake Crimea? From where will they attack? What are the difficulties that come along with this? We are gonna answer these questions in a two parts series. We will take a glance at what history teaches us about the peninsula to draw conclusions for Ukraine’s current situation.
In part one, we shall have a look at the more recent military history and geography of Crimea. Part two will explore the socioeconomic dimension of the history of Crimea in more detail. In my modest opinion, Russia’s alleged historical claims are a very weak excuse. Crimea is Ukraine, and Crimea is necessary to rebuild Ukraine’s economy. Without Crimea, there will be no Marshall plan 2.0. Ukraine’s many tactical victories and Russia’s strategic defeat will be a poisoned chalice without retaking Crimea.
Crimea is different from anything else we have seen in this war for a plethora of reasons
Crimea has been the object of desire of many powers in the past. Russians, Greeks, Turks, Romans, Goths, Slavs, and the Crimean Tartars to mention some of them. Russia’s own hold over Crimea is actually not established prior to 1783. Russia has lost control over Crimea several times since then. Ukraine was always important for Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia can’t be a great power.
Russia and Ukraine have a long and complicated history. The complications began when the Mongols burned down Kyiv, the capital of the Kievan Rus in the 13th century. Afterward, the Mongols moved their capital east to the landlocked plains of Smolensk, Rostov, and Chernikov. The duchy of Muscovy heavily expanded in the coming centuries. Roughly 300 years ago, the Russian Empire had started to expand ever further East and West.
Russia always ALWAYS tries to make Ukraine part of their empire
Their methods have barely changed over the centuries. Their excuses do change every time, but the goal is always the same. Russia has deported the natives from the peninsula in several waves to “Russify” Crimea. Crimea is not a part of Russia geographically. Catherine, the great occupied it "peacefully," which meant deportations and genocide for the local population. So Crimea hasn’t “always been Russian” at all. Crimean Tartars lived there, and the Tartar Kanaate stretched deep into the Ukrainian steppe. Even the myth created by Russia to justify their invasion is incorrect. Crimea wasn’t a “gift from Kruschev to Ukraine”. There was nothing unlawful about the transfer bacl to Ukraine in 1954.
Based on an examination of the Soviet legal norms and administrative practices regarding territorial changes within the USSR contrary to a “royal gift” myth, the transfer of Crimea to Ukraine in 1954 was performed in accordance with then existing Soviet legislation, topical post‐war economic considerations, and already customary intra‐Union practices. Alina Cherviatsova
The advantage is now on Ukraine’s side. The seemingly impossible goal to retake Crimea is suddenly becoming more feasible
The effects of the liberation of Crimea on the political system in Russia are complex and uncertain. There are a lot of variables. Restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity will be a very difficult operation for many different reasons. But it it is still necessary. Without Crimea Ukraine’s economy will never be able to fully recover. The biggest factor that makes Crimea very different from other areas is its geography. Crimea is a peninsula. There are only two ways in. One via the Kerch bridge, the other via the “Izmus of Perecop” which is only 5 kilometers across. This is a natural bottle neck. Dense columns of vehicles will be met with trenches, landmines, barbed wire, etc. That will guarantee maximum rates of death and destruction. It would be a very costly frontal assault by Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine won’t likely have either air or naval superiority. Concentrated artillery fire would turn the whole endavour into a huge kill zone. Also, Ukraine will only have so many waves of men and materiel to make a breakthrough.
The Syvash, or Putrid Sea, is another major complicating factor
This is basically a shallow lagoon. The water is roughly 1.5 meters deep there. On low tide, a crossing is possible. Once the high tide returns, Ukraine would have to wait before they can get more supplies in. This would give Russia the chance to counter-attack. Other methods would be either air borne or naval assault. Both options seem hardly possible, so we can effectively rule them out.
Ukraine will have to take the hard route through the Istmus. A look at history can be our guide here
Crimea was assaulted by the French and British in the 1850s during the Crimean War. These two powers vastly outnumbered the Russians. They had Naval superiority as well, still both sides suffered over 100.000 casualties (KIA,WIA).
Then, during the Civil War, when the whites controlled the island, even though the reds had 4 times greater manpower, they suffered 5 times more casualties. The only reason why this even worked out at all was due to the Bolsheviks numeric superiority and because the Bolsheviks had more tolerance in absorbing those horrendous casualties.
When the Axis powers then invaded in 1941, it took the Germans and Romanians 8 months until July 1942 to reach Sevastopol. The German troops suffered over 30.000 casualties in the process. When the Soviets took Crimea back in 1944, they invaded from two sides. Via the Kerch Straits and from the North. The Soviets fielded twice as many troops as the German defenders. The Red Army brought significantly more tanks and artillery as well. Still, they took 85.000 casualties a ratio of 1:5, and it took them an entire month of combat to recapture the peninsula.
Based on these historical lessons, the attacker will either need naval and air superiority, or it must significantly outnumber the defender
According to expert estimates, there could be something like 85.000 Russians on the peninsula ready to defend it. Ukraine will need at the very least something like 70.000 up to 140.000 to have a good chance of success. We must be aware that this will be a costly campaign, which could be causing Ukraine tens of thousands of casualties. Which assumes that nothing goes wrong. But at first, of course, Ukraine has to get to Crimea first. While geography had heavily favored Ukraine in Cherson, where they essentially checkmated Russia logistically by blowing up the bridges. This time, geography will favor Russia. What Ukraine will have to do is to go through Saporishia, Mariupol, Melitopol, and then to Berdiansk. This offensive would then sever the landbridge that Russia uses to supply Crimea. This is a very daunting plan all by itself. Russia may be able to dig in with their conscripts and make such an endeavor very costly. That is why Ukraine needed those Bradleys, Marder, and other even heavier equipment like the Leopard 2 tank so desperately. If those weapons and long-range missiles can be delivered in time for the upcoming offensive, only time can tell.
Victory in war is never certain
A frontal attack into Crimea is risky. Therefore, blockading Crimea might be the better option. This approach could turn the geographical disadvantage of Ukraine into an advantage then. Ukraine would basically lay siege to the peninsula and make it difficult for Russia to get reinforcements and supplies into Crimea.
Russia has only three options to supply Crimea
- Via trucks and rail through the landbridge
- Via the Kerch bridge
- Via ferries and air cargo delivery
The Kerch bridge has been hit before and should be hit again to take it offline. Liberating Mariupol would not just sever the landbridge. Russia would also lose access to its port to supply Crimea. Additionally, Ukraine could once more blockade the Crimean Canal, which supplies 85 percent of Crimea’s fresh water supplies. This Canal is still under Russian occupation at the moment. Essentially, a siege would turn Crimea into an island. In 2021 90 percent of Crimea’s water supply had gone away due to the blockade of this canal. Russians who were living there only had 3 to 5 hours a day of access to fresh water. In 2018, the Kerch Bridge was opened, but it just wasn’t enough to supply the peninsula. One single railway and a two 2 lane highway bridge cannot get enough supplies in for roughly 2.5 million inhabitants.
“If you imagine in your mental map, Crimea, there are only two roads, two land routes, or what we call lines of communication that connect Crimea to Russia. One is over the Kerch bridge, which was hit last fall, and I anticipate the Ukrainians will revisit that again. The other one is the so-called landbridge via Melitopol and Mariupol, and so what you have to do is isolate Crimea first by severing these two lines of communication.” Ben Hodges
So, why is Crimea so extremely important for Russia in the first place?
Putin needs Crimea as it is their second best port location
The port of Sevastopol is both a warm water and a deep water port. It is deep enough for warships, and compared to Novorossiysk in the eastern rim, it is just a much better option. This other port is more shallow, and also, it’s used commercially as well. The power that controls Sevastopol controls the black sea. Russia can project naval power to the Mediterranean and then into the Atlanic ocean. Take that port from Russia, and you effectively eliminate that option as the Baltic Sea is soon going to be a NATO lake. The only other port with such qualities is Murmansk to project power into the North Sea. Vladivostok is not a warm water port, and it’s frozen over for 4 months every year.
Whoever controls the peninsula controls the entire area of the Black Sea around it
Putin’s own life might depend on it as well. Levada Center, one of the last “independent” institutes in Russia, projects that 86 percent of Russians had supported annexation of Crimea. So, what does Putin have to show for, but hundreds of thousands of lives perished, a destroyed army and a bankrupt economy. He turned Russia into a pariah. Losing Crimea might tip the Russian public and the military over the edge. This could be the end of Putin’s rule. But there is a security dilemma here.
Crimea is more important to the Kremlin than it is to the White House
We cannot wish away the risk of nuclear escalation or the use of chemical weapons. It is hard to say what Russia is willing to do. I personally believe that they won’t do such a thing, but you never know. Certainly, Crimea is just as important to Kyiv if not even more so. If Crimea remains under the Kremlin’s control, then Ukraine can be certain that another war is in the making right then and there. The stakes are too high for either side, so neither side is done fighting or will negotiate right now.
Ukraine has another issue to solve: What happens after Kyiv takes back Crimea?
The demographics of Crimea are different from anywhere else in Ukraine. The majority of Crimeans are Russians. Stalin made sure of that via demographic manipulation. He had hundreds of thousands of Crimean Tartars deported to Russia proper and replaced them with ethnic Russians. Therefore, Crimea has had an ethnic majority of Russians since 1944. In the census of 2001, the island’s population was 60 percent Russians, 24 percent Ukrainians, and 10 percent Tartars. It must come as no surprise that Crimea was always the most pro-Russian part of Ukraine. In 1991, 94 percent voted to become an autonomous region, and 83 percent voted to receive a dual Ukrainian-Russian citizenship. However, they didn’t want to join Russia outright after the Soviet Union collapsed. Then 54 percent of the people on the peninsula voted for independence in 1991 in favor of Ukraine. Only 4 percent of voters wanted a re-unification with Russia.
This demographic situation made tens of thousands of pro Ukraine people leave or be forced out
During the same time period, Russia brought 500k to 1 million people from the Russian mainland. So, most likely, Crimea is now even more pro-Russian than before. That heightens the chance that Ukraine won’t be greeted with flowers and could even face an insurgency. That leaves Ukraine with a difficult issue to solve: How should they deal with these roughly 500k to 1 million pro Russian elements on Crimea?
Ukraine has issued an amnesty, but that only stretches to those citizens living there prior to 2014
Ukraine’s choices are limited. Either they squash all resistance or deport those up to 1 million Russians back to Russia. That could result in a lot of ugly and bad press. The facts are that in order to return Ukraine to its 2014 status, Ukraine will have to deport quite a good chunk of people back to Russia to achieve their goals. Russia gives them no real choice. Ben Hodges states, the liberation of Crimea is essential and non-negotiable to restore Ukraine’s economy.
“So there will be no rebuilding of Ukraine, no Marshal plan, as long as Russia occupies Crimea. That means then 4 million Ukrainian refugees will continue to live in Poland, Germany, the Netherlands as they will have nothing they can go back to” Ben Hodges
Summary and Conclusion
Ukraine must try to liberate Crimea. Otherwise, their victory will be a phyrric one. It will make the country prone to further risk of nuclear or conventional escalation by their bigger neighbor. The fear of losing Crimea could work better than actually taking it. The land bridge has to be severed. The Kerch Bridge must be hit again. Then Ukraine will have to lay siege to Crimea. This could give Ukraine an exit strategy. They may then enter negotiations with this bargaining chip and receive Crimea on the green table then. Three possible exit scenarios could look something like this in “Realpolitik” terms.
1) Crimea returns diplomatically to Ukraine without further escalation
2) Russia surrenders everything apart from Crimea to Ukraine. That is a very bad choice as Russia has then the option to come back later and do the same thing they did last year all over again.
3) Crimea is put under UN control. No military presence of either side is allowed there. UN peacekeepers are stationed in Crimea, and no bases are allowed, not even Naval bases. The security dilemma would be mostly resolved. The Ukrainians then agree to keep the Crimean Canal open, and Russia’s military and Naval presence on Crimea comes to an end.
There are never any kind of easy solutions to complex problems
War is a failure of diplomacy and a clash of core interests. This entire situation is full of hard choices for Ukraine, the West, and Russia. Crimea’s future remains highly uncertain. The war shapes to end up where it began almost a decade ago: In Crimea. The next 6 months will tell the tale. Will Ukraine be able to break Russian lines? I wish I knew that. We cannot know for sure until the offensive begins, which will be in the next 30 to 90 days.
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