The Crimean Endgame: Corruption and lies will be the downfall of the Putin regime.
The Kerch Straits Road Bridge concrete supports for one span have just cracked in half
The vital supply artery which connects Russia and Ukraine across the Kerch strait shows signs of massive construction defects
The Kerch bridge is the only artificial land connection between the Crimean peninsula and Russsia. Some parts of the bridge collapsed last year in October after a mysterious explosion. Russia has frantically tried to repair the damage. The reopening of Putin’s favorite piece of architecture is scheduled for July. It might be very short-lived.
Without liberating Crimea, Ukraine will never be safe
In turn, losing Crimea will likely end Putin’s reign of terror. These cracks are symbolic for the state of Putin’s imperial project. Both the bridge and Putin’s ambitions are damaged beyond repair.
“It began with Crimea, and it will end with Crimea” Selensky
Ukraine will keep the bridge intact for another 30 to 90 days. So that the Russian army and pro Putin civilians have a way to escape
The biggest enemy of the bridge, though, might be Russia’s corrupt construction business. The cracks that have appeared recently likely don’t have anything to do with damage from ordnance.
These cracks are a result of Russia’s notorious “fast construction projects.”
When we look at some past urbanizing projects in Russia under Krushchev. We can find many buildings that have collapsed due to cutting corners during their construction. We still don’t know which pillars have cracked or how many have cracked in total. But even if just a few of them have cracked, it might make the transportation of heavy equipment a very dangerous endeavor.
The fact that any of these pylons have cracked after only five years is further proof of the systemic corruption in Putin’s Russia. Russia’s corruption is indeed its own worst enemy.
“Crimea is strategic. The Donbas is important. However, you could kill every Russian soldier in Donbas. That wouldn’t change the outcome. Liberating Crimea will change the outcome.” Ben Hodges
To be fair, this is not a unique phenomenon to Russia, but one that is widespread throughout the ex-Soviet space and beyond it
For example, many buildings in Romania that were built during the Ceaușescu era were also rushed through which had severe consequences in the long term. We could also see that in Bulgaria during the large earthquake that has affected Svishtov the most. This corruption caused an entire high-rise building to collapse. Over one hundred people died as a result of the incident. There are other examples of bridges that have collapsed, such as India or Italy. The problem is widespread.
Serious deep fissures have appeared in these buidlings. These same fissures are now appearing in the support columns of the Kerch Bridge
The recent eaethquake in Turkey is another example of how corruption is not a crime without victims. The situation in Russia is likely even worse. This image shows how this corruption looks like in practice.
The planning phase of the Kerch bridge was very short, too short it seems
There were also some very questionable engineers behind the project. These men didn’t use enough concrete which is usually a bad idea if you want the bridge to stand for a longer period of time. The bridge was hastily built in only 2 years. The Kerch bridge is massive. It’s not some random "cross over a glorified puddle of a river" project.
The planning phase to engage in a project like this should have taken at least twice as long as it actually has. However, Russia’s dictator had no time to wait. His invasion was long planned. This bridge played a crucial role in this invasion plan.
It also doesn’t help that the bridge was built on an unstable fault
It’s obvious that the Kerch bridge is doomed to fall sooner or later. A lot of heavy military machinery has been transported over the bridge in the past 16 months. With every truck that goes over the bridge, the strain on the entire structure grows larger. Gravity will prove to be an even more merciless opponent than Ukraine. The other major opponent of the bridge is its geographic location.
The Kerch Strait is known to be geologically unstable. A tectonic fault passes through the ocean floor under the strait
The bedrock is covered within a layer of silt, which is up to 197 feet thick. (60 meters) So, to get a stable foundation for the bridge, Russia would have had to dig through this layer of granular material of sand and clay.
Did Russia do that properly? I doubt that
The area is also subject to “mud volcanoes.” These volcanoes are formed when water, which is heated deep in the Earth’s crust, mixes with underground mineral deposits.
This mixture of sand and clay is then forced upward through a geological fault. As of 2010, Ukraine’s Department of Marine Geology and Sedimentary Ore Formation reported that almost 70 of these mud volcanoes were found in the Azov-Black Sea Basin. That’s where the Kerch Strait is located.
The fate of the Kerch bridge now depends on the Kremlin’s own shoddy construction skills and Ukrainian ordnance
These aren’t great odds. Unless the occupants of Crimea can walk on water. I would suggest that it is time to leave while they still can. The grim reality is that Crimea would prove a valuable, de facto, oversized-POW camp for a sizable portion of Putin’s troops in Ukraine.
An evacuation over water would be nearly impossible for the Kremlin. The impetus to return tens of thousands of prisoners would be a loud and clear message of Putin’s failure. There would likely be no recovery from such an event for Putin’s regime.
A lot of the 500.000 to 800.000 Russian colonists should be re-considering their life choices right now
Trent Telenko stated that “the set of concrete pillars in those photos are proximate to the spans that fell because the bending loads from the fall had to be absorbed somewhere in the bridge structure.” He adds that such stresses can propagate across multiple bridge spans. This can lead them to collapse like a house of cards.
London Bridge is falling down
Falling down, falling down
London Bridge is falling down
My fair lady
It’s still difficult to know where those cracks in the Kerch strait bridge support pylons have appeared exactly. What we can say is that none of this is coming as a major surprise.
What we can also say. No matter how successful this upcoming counter offensive will be
In my opinion, the bridge won’t be with us for much longer either way. This information is still very fresh. Some people say the imagery is photoshopped. Be your own judge. I don’t think so, for the reasons I have given here. The loss of the Kerch bridge would be a massive blow to Russia’s war effort. Russia had quite a few of those lately. Without the Kerch bridge, the occupation of Crimea will prove to be untennable for the Kremlin.
Summary and Conclusion
Presently, the fog of war is very thick. Still, I have the feeling that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will begin in earnest before the mid of June.
Ukraine will liberate the Cherson Oblast, Melitopol, and Marioupol. Once Ukraine is in control of the land bridge. Then the Kerch bridge will be their next target.
Ukraine will cut Crimea off from all supplies (likely including water if they want to get especially brutal with it). Russia doesn’t have the necessary boats to supply the island. Ukraine would then likely run a blockade with Storm Shadow missiles and drone boats.
“If you imagine in your mental map, Crimea, there are only two roads, two land routes, or what we call lines of communication that connect Crimea to Russia. One is over the Kerch bridge, which was hit last fall, and I anticipate the Ukrainians will revisit that again. The other one is the so-called landbridge via Melitopol and Mariupol, and so what you have to do is isolate Crimea first by severing these two lines of communication.” Ben Hodges
The peninsula is very important for Putin. There is also a lot of natural gas in the area. Which plays a role in a cleptocratic regime, which has a lot of warlords to satisfy. Putin needs to entertain his elites to maintain their loyalty.
Losing Crimea might be the final straw that breaks the camel’s back which would likely cost Putin his life
The cracks in the facade of the regime are getting bigger. The cracks in the support pylons of the Kerch bridge are a reminder of the Potemkin village that Ukraine is up against. Putin thought he could have his cake and eat it too. This was the biggest misjudgment he has ever made. It might have also been his last.
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