We can only defend ourselves, when we finally realise we are under attack. The West has been far too timid to respond to Russia’s crimes against humanity in Ukraine thus far
The West remains too timid in its efforts to stop Russia’s gross violation of the international rules based system
The G20 meeting hints towards a growing divide between eastern autocracies and the West
The world is heading towards a growing divide between centralized mono-cephalous centers of power (China or Russia) and de-centralized multi-cephalous distributed centers of power such as the EU or the United States. Putin is an inventive evil doer on the world stage, who presents a threat and a challenge to democracies around the world. Russia is neither “difficult” or “complicated” they are hostile, and its high time we call them what they are, which is an enemy of the free world, and its hostile acts show that we have made the mistake to first of all not acknowledge that but secondly we have failed to realise, that a man like Putin is a destructive agent with no interest in our economic growth model.
It is high time we stop “feeding the monster” and make sure we know which countries are really our allies
We need to really ask ourselves, which countries wish to align themselves with the West and who are those who intend to ensure to see the Western system fall apart. There are destructive players out there, those that want to see us and our system fail. We must acknowledge that Putin is exactly that and always was exactly that.
Putin’s Russia is a destructive force that searches for weaknesses in our system and exploits them. As a man like him has no interest in a democratic eastern europe. the EU is a horror show concept for Putin. Putin wants to see a similar situation as it is in Belarus to be the case all over Europe. That would mean that we normalise genocide, normalise war, normalise torture, and normalise moving borders at will via nuclear blackmail. We cannot ever let that happen, and we must fight against those that demand it.
We can see this divide going right through recent UN votes and the current debates at the G20 meeting
There is a deepening rift between democracies worldwide or, as we call it “the West”. And autocracies or flawed democracies around the world. There are those countries that are aligned with the West or who are becoming more aligned with its rules based order and values and its economic system.
Then, there are those with a more or less neutral stance. Finally, there are those who openly oppose Western policies. Not all nations of the world will be represented. I hope I managed to get the most of them into this piece, though.
The following list is my personal view, it doesn’t claim to be complete, and the numbers provided are not authoritative but descriptive
What we consider the West is a set of values and principles and not a geographical location
The core of this alliance was formed post 1945: The USA, the entirety of the EU, the UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.
The USA has a GDP (in USD) of around 23 trillion, the EU has a GDP of 17 trillion, the UK Canada, Norway has a combined GDP of 7.6 trillion. Australia, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have a combined GDP of 9.1 trillion with Japan, contributing 5 trillion to this number.
The inner circle, which still belongs to what we consider strategic partners.
Mexico, Ukraine, Brazil (several smaller latin American nations), Israel, Turkey, and the West Balkan nations, excluding Serbia, belong to that category.
While Brazil, Israel, Argentina, and Turkey may have some different takes on certain matters, that doesn’t change for me that they are still part of the West.
Turkey, additionally, is part of NATO, of course. Brazil has been a difficult partner under Bolsonaro. However, recent elections point towards a betterment of relations. If that is the case, time must tell. However, Brazil remains quite dependable upon the Chinese Belt and Road initiative and owes China a lot of money.
I will call the next group Western partners rather than close allies.
Nations that come to mind are Thailand, Columbia, Indonesia (which currently starts buying Western weapons and is an enemy of China, Chile, Morocco, Ghana (a former UK colony)
Malaysia (a long-standing US ally, which now buys frigates from France) Haiti and other smaller island nations that are still aligned with their former colonial masters. (commonwealth) Ecuador (currently rebuilding their relationship with the US)
This entire bloc of nations has a total population of roughly 3.5 billion people. The GDP of the entire bloc is roughly 62 trillion USD (+-3 trillion). So, that means this block accounts for roughly half the world’s population and produces roughly 2/3 of its economic output.
What they also have in common is that most of them are somewhere between 5 and 10 on the democracy index.
Partners and potential future allies
These countries cannot count as Western aligned, but still they are on their way to further integration with its economic system, however, not all of them may they do that by choice, for example the neo-colonial empire that France still holds in Africa is a questionable case here.
Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova. Africa: Egypt , Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Kongo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Mali, Ivory coast, Niger, Central African Republic Benin, Guinea-Bissau, Togo, Senegal, Mauretania (part of the CFA Franc Zone)
The total population of this bloc has a total population of 430 million people, and a GDP of roughly 1.1 trillion USD
These countries are roughly comprising of those nations currently part of good Western trading partners and partners and many of those mentioned on this list are currently intensifying trade our buying our weapons or taking Western credits to develop their economy.
That makes in total roughly 4.2 billion people, which is a little over half of the current world population, and this block in total represents 60 trillion USD of GDP. The world GDP currently sits at roughly 95 trillion USD.
Then there are some countries whose ideology is in their way to become more aligned with the West
Serbia is on that list, even though they are currently in the process of realigning themselves and moving away from Russia and towards Europe, we I already mentioned the West Balkan who is undergoing the same process (Albania, Bosnia, Montenegro)
Serbia is taking steps to leave behind centuries of Russian influence, and the latest move of providing ammo to Ukraine is a further good step in that direction, Europe needs Serbia, and Serbia needs Europe as a partner.
Those whose ideology stands in their way are listed here
Vietnam (which hates China but is currently still buying weapons from Russia)
Kuba which has no chance to make it on its own and is struggling, they buy food and energy from Russia but sooner or later they will either must align themselves with the USA or face the state collapse and de-industrialization. Without a protectorate, that won’t end well for them.
Venezuela which sits on 25 percent of the world’s oil reserves, but which probably already “screwed up” as it couldn’t let go of communism, so now it faces a total collapse of its oil sector as US refineries have switched their refineries from the heavy hard to process oil of Venezuela to processing shale oil instead.
The GDP of this bloc comprises roughly 1 Trillion Dollars, the population of this bloc is roughly 150 million people.
The next category is harsh as we talk about failed states and nations that are about to become a failed state
Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Sudan, Central Africa, Tchad, Eritrea, Somalia (heading towards state collapse, reasons are war, and catastrophic corruption
Generally, the Sahel Zone is at risk, and Zimbabwe is a prominent example. But also, Ecuador and Sri Lanka face state collapse or have already collapsed.
Here, we talk about roughly 900 million people. The GDP of this entire bloc is very small. We are talking about a total GDP of roughly 600 billion for all of these nations combined.
Nations on their way to a deep recession or which are heading towards bankruptcy due to lack of either energy, food, money, or all the above
Pakistan, which is also currently on the IMF credit line, if they are refused a further loan, they will face bankruptcy within several weeks.
Bangladesh (currently on their next IMF loan), Pakistan (currently facing bankruptcy without further IMF loans). They are also part of the Chinese Belt and Road initiative.
South Africa (corruption is rampant. They face massive brain drain and struggle with their power grid as well a lack of LNG imports)
Kenya (constant corruption, elections that are constantly repeated, hunger crisis because of an ongoing war in Somalia next door)
South Sudan (a Russian Vassal exploited by Russia for its gold reserves)
North Sudan (a close ally to Egypt but also to China with the BRI initiative)
We are talking about a total population of roughly 550 million people and a combined GDP of roughly one trillion USD.
The opportunists (standing in the middle, not really an ally to anyone but their interests are basically hard to assess.
Jordan would fall in that category while I would put the UAE in that category as well, while the UAE says Russia is a strategic partner for them, I don’t trust that relationship to be as deep as Russia would like it to be. Also, Saudi Arabia and Quatar fall in that category.
Basically, these two are also rather on the side lines and trying to play both sides as best as they can, even though Saudi Arabia may align itself with the Western alliance more directly, as Iran’s involvement in the war is starting to become more and obvious and is steadily increasing since Shaheed drone deliveries have increased dramatically over the past few months.
India
India is officially the biggest democracy of the world. It buys weapons and other western goods from Europe and the US. It also buys oil and coal from Russia at heavily discounted rates, Historically, Russia and India share long-lasting grievances.
The USSR also had friendly relationships with India in the past, and the nationalists in India have a rather strong pro Russian position on the war. But India also shares deeply rooted historical conflicts with China, and with Pakistan, they all have disputes over their borders.
So while I am sure Russia would like that friendship to last, India is still dependable on the West in major way, and their logical partner to face down China is not Russia but the West, India seems to also have realized that as they have recently ordered fighter Jets from France.
India is by far not China’s ally, they are also doing by far more business with the West than they do with Russia, so putting them into the bloc of Russian allies, wouldn’t do justice to India’s unique position in which they attempt to play both sides to their advantage.
Overall, one might expect India to extend its influence over Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh in the future
Modi may buy oil from Russia, but in any other way, that alliance with a loser will not be very helpful for India. While they have failed to take a clear position against Russia, one can hardly call them an ally of Russia either. Should they play this safe. I see India as the new logical regional major power of the entire region rather than China.
Nigeria
Nigeria is as we could say, playing both sides, and not fully aligned with any faction, Nigeria has trade deals with China in place and they owe them 3.6 billion dollars in BRI loans, but they also received over 1 billion dollars in funds from the EU and Nigeria plans on making more business with the West, especially in the oil and gas sector.
The total population of this bloc is roughly 1.8 billion people, and its GDP is roughly 4.8 trillion USD.
Finally, the bloc of “autocrats, dictators and their vassals and their partners
Here, we will have a few countries that we have seen before in other categories. Calling them supporters, doesn’t mean by any means, that these blocs are properly economically or socio culturally integrated, quite the opposite is the case, they share grievances amongst one another and their relationship to one another is marked by power games, recently Russia’s own balance has been heavily shifting in China’s favor, due to Russia’s failing war effort in Ukraine.
What this bloc has in common is rampant corruption and a really bad human rights abuse record
The bloc is comprised of China, Russia, Belarus (a Russian puppet state), Syria, Myanmar, and different African nations, which are in the Russian or Chinese sphere of influence. (i.e., Sudan, Tchad, Central Africa, Kenya, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Angola, North Korea, Algeria, Libya, Lebanon), then we have Pakistan, Bangladesh and Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, North Korea (a Chinese vassal) South Africa (also a Russian ally)
I might have to add that while Pakistan and Bangladesh are not as deeply in Russia’s or China’s influene sphere, especially China still has extended its control via BRI over both of these nations in recent years. China controls several dams in Pakistan but Pakistan also has connections with the West and has delivered ammo to Ukraine, the same goes for Angola and South Africa, which aren’t as clear-cut allies of Russia as well.
All the following GDP numbers are valued in USD
1) China adds around 17 trillion to this bloc’s GDP, while Russia adds roughly 1.4 trillion.
2) South Africa adds another 419 billion, Bangladesh 420 billion, Pakistan 350 billion, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan 50 billion combined, Iran adds another 400 billion
3) Angola 70 billion, Kenya, 110 billion, Ethiopia 110 billion, Sudan 34 billion, and the rest of these countries altogether adds roughly another 150 billion USD.
So, that means China (17 trillion), Russia (1,4 trillion), the rest of this bloc together comprises around 1.6 trillion USD. That means in total, we are looking at 20 trillion dollars’ worth of GDP for this entire bloc.
Russia represents less than 10 percent of the total, while Russia’s GDP is roughly 12 times smaller than that of China, and roughly 0.9 times the size of the other “partners” in this bloc. Which is even questionable as to how truthful these numbers are, but I give them the benefit of the doubt and take the official numbers.
The population size of the bloc shows that China has around 1.4 billion people
Russia has roughly 1/10 that number and sits at around 140 billion. The other nations on this list comprise roughly 1 billion additional people.
That means the entire bloc here totals around 2.6 billion people
That means the Russian Federation makes up about 5 percent of the total population of this bloc. It contributes roughly 7 percent to its GDP. while controlling over 11 percent of the earth’s land mass. So, as you can see, China, India, and Russia do not form a bloc of allies as NATO does. Rather, Russia would be the resource vassal in this “alliance”. Eastern Russia Chinese settlers outnumber the Russian population by 13:1. In these 48 states, the Chinese have 310 million people. The Russian Far East only has a population of 8.3 million. The Far East region contains 40 percent of Russian territory and less than six percent of Russia’s population.
This will be a disastrous wake up call for Russians
Even though I believe Putin is actually aware of this pending colonization. But the thought that China could retake what Russia once took from China which declared the treaty that they had to sign, which caused Russia to receive a territory or rather occupy it, which is roughly the size of Ukraine. The Chinese consider this treaty “unfair and unequal” and almost went to war with Russia in the 1960s over an open border dispute that remains ultimately unresolved to this very day.
India and China need Russia’s resources, but that is about it
India’s imports and exports with Western nations is vastly bigger than their trade with Russia, until March last year, they had barely any close business ties, even today they do not extend far beyond commodity trade such as coal or oil. There is also no pipeline infrastructure in place that would connect India to Russia in any way.
This list is probably not complete. Still, I hope I covered the most important countries and areas.
Summary and Conclusion
So, why am I writing this piece? Because I want my readers to be more aware of how brazen Russia’s demands given these realities actually are. Given its population size (less than 1.7 percent of the world’s total), the capacity of its military and the size of its economy, the demands to even more land and influence by Putin are laughable if not straighforwardly crazy.
I think we are seeing here not just the end of Russia as a great power, but we see something else. We see two blocs forming. Russia might then be a junior partner, as the real behemoth behind them is actually China. China has already started to absorb Russia and also Belarus into its orbit with the BRI loans.
Much as the Americans once offered the world a deal, join the anti-communist alliance and in return we give you secure sea lanes, a lot of cash, food, investments, and troops in case you are under attack by the communist bloc.
So China offers a deal, only it isn’t really a deal. It’s a poisoned chalice, but Russia will have to drink from it regardless.
Also we in the West need a new deal a new grand strategy
This time, though, not the US alone must extend it. Europe has recovered to such an extent that we cannot let the US stem this alone. Japan and South Korea, Australia, they all will pull their weight. Europe must become aware of its old strength. It must rearm itself and prepare itself for the coming conflicts.
We have become far too timid and afraid, of Tyrants such as Putin Russia will not topple the rules based order. Only when we are continuing to try to meet evil halfway, with this regime, we will not negotiate, as they have proven unable to uphold any contract signed with them in good faith.
Russia may think the West is weak. The West must prove him wrong, China is watching Russia, and they will judge from how well Putin is doing when this war is over as of who to invade next, or maybe even to not invade anyone at all.
Europe has gotten used to America’s deal, but a new deal is in order. A new doctrine to fight back autocrats around the world is needed. Targeted at China, Russia, and its supporters around the globe. We must rearm Europe, and Europe has to get its near abroad in order. Renewables have to be funded more, and we must make sure to reduce our dependency on China and other dictators as fast as possible.
We cannot continue giving money to those that hate us, or they will destroy us and our Western system.
Russia’s invasion is a wake-up call. There are players out there, destructive players that want the West to fall
Well, they will find out we won’t just roll over and die without a fight. Japan is rearming itself, and so is Europe, and it must be done. We cannot count on the American security umbrella to protect us forever, especially now when China is making its motives very clear in their support of Russia, we must be ready to face Russia and China head on.
We cannot defend ourselves for as long as we are not capable to acknowledge that our rules based order is under attack.
The system of checks and balances, freedom of speech, freedom of thought, integrity of international borders, these are all values worth protecting and worth fighting for. Our privileges were hard fought by our ancestors, whose major powers have managed to stop waging war against one another in Europe for 80 years.
These times are over, and the West must be ready to meet the challenge
Russia and those openly supporting Russia are our enemies. When we understand that, we can also understand that actions must be taken to stop them. The US will be rather fine in all that, their big bodies of water are a good protection, but the Eurasian plain.
We might see many more wars in the future, I fear. Russia’s hegemony of the region wanes, and instability will reign in the region then. But if our values are worth something, then they are worth protecting and worth defending.
We should try doing that more often and with more confidence.
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