To understand the reasons for this war, we must understand the history of Europe’s empires first. Geography and culture heavily influence our understanding of the world around us. Geo-politics may even help to explain why nations decide to wage a war. — The Soviet Union has been collapsing in waves since 1989. The first stage of the Soviet Empire decline (1970s and 80s), was followed by a second phase of decentralization (1989–2014) The current situation that is unfolding represents the third stage of the Empire’s collapse.

Russia’s culmination point had been reached by the end of August 2022. Their capacity to wage this war, especially for offensive operations, is getting more and more limited by the day. — Short Summary of the article: Negotiations with Russia will be fruitless. The only way to defeat Russia will not come to pass through a complete military victory. The defeat of Russia will come by successfully bancrupting them and starving them of supplies. Until they are facing another state collapse, similar…

Russia has neither the command and control nor the logistics to win this war. — I expect their armed forces and the frontline to collapse within the next 9 to 12 months, Ukraine has achieved an “irreversible momentum” (Hodges) the trajectory of this war is already decided, now Western support cannot waver. …

Russia won’t just lose this war. It is throwing their last young generation into a furnace to die for the delusional imperial ideas of grandeur of their leader. — Putin’s war of expansion against Ukraine was an attempt to fix Russia’s horrendous demographic situation. 145 Million, this is the total population of Russia in 2021, but before we start: Russia is a wheat nation, which means that if their farmers aren’t back on the fields by the time planting…

The Wagner Group finds itself in a bloody war of attrition. The death toll is higher than anyone can comprehend. From the 40.000 prisoners that Wagner has recruited, estimates suggest that 80 percent of them are KIA/WIA. — The Wagner mercenary group is just one of many private military groups in the emply of the Russian Federation. Besides Wagner, there are Kadyrow’s men , and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu fielded his own private army, which seems to openly compete with Wagner forces in and around Vuhledar in Donetsk…

Trent Telenko even suggests that the number of russian casualties might be as high as 300.000 (KIA/WIA/POW). General mobilisation will be unvavoidable to sustain the Russian war effort and prevent an outright collapse of the Russian frontlines in Ukraine. — The casualties on both sides are very high (Ukraine most likely also suffered somewhere north of 100k KIA/WIA. The casualties on the Russian side will be higher than those they had suffered in all their wars combined since the end of WW2. The Wagnerites are rumored to have suffered up…

The Leopard 2 tank debate remains unresolved after the Ramstein meeting. However, in politics, what is said and what is done are not always the same thing. As Cicero once remarked: “Silent enim leges inter armas” Under weapons, the law falls silent. In my opinion, Germany will brush aside their internal struggles and deliver these tanks after all. — In the post World War 2 world, Germany had outsourced its energy security to Russia, its manufacturing sector to China, and its security policy to the USA. …

Putin presented these 7 rings to his Fellow CIS Leaders during a recent summit. He presented those symbolic rings to the leaders of various former Soviet repbublics as if he wanted them to swear allegiance to him. Russia knows very well that it is losing control over the still Moscow dominated “Commonwealth of Independent States” (CIS). — The war in Ukraine has not just caused an ever deepening rift with the West but also with the CIS members themselves.

China reports 3 percent growth for 2022. Industrial output keeps falling while birth rates continue to collapse as covid cases surge. — China might be the most overhyped economy of the 21st century. In the last 50 years, the country has seen an impressive growth rate of 4 to 15 percent every year, but the good times are coming to an end, it seems. China will take over the globe, or so…