What happened to ISIS?
Introduction
“Today, I can announce that the United States will lead a broad coalition to defeat this terrorist group. Our goal is clear. We intend to degrade and completely destroy ISIL.”
This is how, on September 10, 2014, the then-President of the United States, Barack Obama, announced what would become a challenging and bloody war against the Islamic State, better known as ISIS.
Nine years have passed since that declaration, and still, from time to time, the word “ISIS” appears in the headlines. What has happened in the meantime? What is ISIS, and is it still as dangerous as it once was?
Let’s delve into it systematically…
ISIS in al-Raqqa and Mosul
Let’s take a brief leap back to 8 months earlier, on January 13, 2014.
About 10 months had passed since the conflict began between forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad, the current President of Syria and the Commander-in-Chief of the Syrian Armed Forces, the Syrian opposition, and ISIS. It was on that day that ISIS assumed full control of the city.
ISIS immediately solidified its power over al-Raqqa, making it the “capital” of its vast dominion spanning Syria and Iraq. It served as the administrative center and strategic base for subsequent attacks. In fact, it was from al-Raqqa that the conquest of Mosul, the second-largest city in Iraq after Baghdad, was orchestrated on June 10 of the same year.
However, al-Raqqa did not merely become a military base; it became the epicenter of extreme violence, a place of torture, rules, impositions, maltreatment, and more rules.
Refugees who survived what might seem like a cinematic hell from the outside spoke of public executions, constant military parades, frequent killings often driven by trivial reasons, and unending punishments. Stealing meant losing one’s hand (similar to the Lombard laws over a millennium ago), while speaking to Western media corresponded to decapitation.
These are just a few of the countless daily scenes that the residents of al-Raqqa, Mosul, and countless other cities endured from 2014 until their liberation in 2017. All of this was accompanied by an endless array of rules and impositions, such as the prohibition of using phones, televisions, naked mannequins, smoking, alcohol, outdoor music, photos of people in shop windows, and incorrectly sized pants (there was a strict and exhaustive list of pant sizes that each person could wear based on their body shape). Not to mention the almost non-existent rights of women, who were forced to stay indoors for any reason, and the grim (but perhaps somewhat “charitable”) choice imposed on anyone who did not practice Islam. The options were three: convert, pay a religious tax called “jizya,” or die.
Only three years later, on July 10, 2017, al-Raqqa and Mosul were liberated by US-backed militias, with assistance from Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. It would be nice to say that everything ended on that day, amid the final crossfire between the Islamic State and the United States. It would be nice, but it did not end just like that…
What remains of al-Raqqa is a city that has lost over 1600 civilians, according to Amnesty International, and more than 90% of its buildings, as reported by advisor Mohamed Nour al-Dheib, demolished by bombings and who knows what else.
Even today, despite the six years that have passed since its liberation, the city is in a slow phase of economic recovery and exhibits significant organizational vulnerability, the same vulnerability that allowed ISIS to seize control. Think of the kidnappings, looting, and daily attacks that continue to fill the headlines of the former capital of the Islamic State, which remains a problem that no one talks about.
What is ISIS?
In the West, ISIS often means only one thing: terrorism. Most likely, over 80% of you (if not exhaustively informed on the subject) may not have even realized the connection between “ISIS” and the “Islamic State” mentioned earlier.
This is because, in Italy, as in other Western countries, the focus on ISIS has always been primarily related to terrorist attacks and acts of violence. This is probably because these situations are much closer to us, coupled with the general disinterest of the West in the East, especially over the past decade.
However, what people may not realize is that our lives are far more intertwined with this criminal organization than we think, albeit for reasons far from positive.
A Brief History of ISIS
It all began in 2001, on that tragic September 11th, which marked the start of a bloody battle between the USA and al-Qaeda, an international Islamist terrorist paramilitary movement led by Osama Bin Laden. It was the thirst for revenge that allowed the United States to gradually dismantle al-Qaeda, reducing it over time to a group of wanted fugitives, culminating on May 2, 2011, with the death of Osama Bin Laden.
It was in that very year that a new terrorist group emerged from the ashes of al-Qaeda, called ISI (Islamic State of Iraq), later renamed ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria).
Founded in 2004 by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the group began as a propaganda machine through its online magazine “Dabiq” and the “al-Furqan Institute for Media Production,” an institute that produced propaganda CDs, DVDs, and online posters. Gradually, it realized it could do much more.
Syria and Iraq, in those years, suffered from severe political, military, and organizational instability, creating a gaping hole that was too tempting for ISIS to pass up. So, from 2011, ISIS began relentless attacks on cities and political entities, fueled by a fervor that only strong (albeit extremist) faith could drive.
ISIS’s strategy, according to terrorism expert Bendaudi Abdelillah, was quite simple: launch continuous, heavy, and random attacks; quickly conquer cities, territories, wealth, and prisoners; and, in doing so, strengthen themselves to the point where no one could do much to stop them.
During those years, they also became infamous for online beheadings and other gruesome media appearances. The group even maintained social media accounts on Twitter, Quitter, Friendica, and Diaspora, hopping from one platform to another due to numerous bans.
In 2014, at its peak, ISIS controlled territory equivalent in size to the United Kingdom, encompassing 40% of Iraq and a third of Syria. But their expansionist ambitions did not stop there.
Their mistake, one that would lead to ISIS being relentlessly pursued by the USA and others, was their failure to be content with the Middle East.
I’m not referring to the attacks in Libya, Baghdad, Istanbul, Brussels, Manchester, London, Barcelona, and New York. While those were certainly dangerous and feared by the masses, there was something much larger at play: a full-fledged plan to conquer the West.
On July 1, 2014, the group released an online document, a detailed map outlining all the territories it aimed to conquer by 2020. In addition to the Middle East (and parts of China) and North Africa, a substantial portion of Europe was in its sights, including Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Malta, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Crimea, the
Iberian Peninsula, Austria, and Liechtenstein, with the pinnacle being the conquest of Madrid (renamed al-Andalus) by 2020.
Four months later, the group published noteworthy plans: detailed strategies for conquering and subduing Rome.
In the same year, to increase their appeal in the West, the terrorist group established the Al Hayat Media Center, an organization dedicated to publishing propaganda articles in English, French, German, and Russian. But they had pushed the envelope too far, and the West could no longer tolerate such actions.
A bloody and destructive war between the West and ISIS ensued. ISIS was powerful and motivated to win, but the combined strength of Europe, the USA, and numerous Eastern militias ultimately overpowered them, stripping them of 95% of their possessions.
Even the Wagner Group joined the fight against ISIS starting in 2015, likely due to Russia’s keen interest in Syrian and Iraqi oil (for instance, in Palmyra). However, their brutality did not go unnoticed, with reports of mutilations and uncensored acts of revenge in the media.
ISIS’s Economy and Ideology
Like any militia or “state,” even if it was only a self-proclaimed caliphate, ISIS survived on money. But where did it acquire so much?
Extortion, looting, human trafficking, taxes, seizure of oil fields and archaeological sites were just the tip of the iceberg of a fortune that was estimated to be worth $2 billion in 2014. But that was not all.
In addition to donations from wealthy individuals supporting their cause, the drug trade was a crucial source of income for ISIS, transporting, for example, 50% of the heroin in circulation from Afghanistan to Europe.
Another crucial aspect was the arms trade for such a large and active “army,” with China, Romania, Russia, and Hungary being major suppliers.
What drove ISIS, however, was not just an insatiable quest for money and power, or at least not solely that. There was, like it or not, a genuine belief system at play. The ideology of ISIS represents a radical, anti-Western interpretation of Islam that labels even Muslims with “modern” or “peaceful” ideas as “infidels.”
Some studies even completely dissociate these ideologies from Islam, linking them instead to Wahhabism, which places violence at its core. Bernard Haykel, a researcher and Middle East scholar at Princeton University, states that, “The violence of ISIS is an end in itself, while for al-Qaeda, violence is only a means to other ends.”
ISIS had a genuine vision to establish a conservative and radical state with the sole purpose of countering the West and Christianity.
All of these political and religious convictions led to such closed-mindedness that it ultimately choked anyone who disagreed with these ideas. This was evident in the application of Sharia law (a complex set of moral and religious rules dictated by God that had the most profound impact on women’s freedom and happiness), but also in the heavy influence of these convictions on educational systems. Over the years, subjects such as history, literature, art, music, and even Darwin’s theory of evolution were banned in schools under ISIS control.
So, What Happened to ISIS?
“ISIS is a problem of yesterday, today, and tomorrow because, although it no longer holds territories, it still has numerous affiliates and sympathizers”, says the U.S. Institute of Peace.
This is because, despite the visible defeat of what was once the largest self-proclaimed caliphate of our time, ISIS has not ended, will not end, and will never end.
Researcher Vera Mironova explained in the NATO Review that, “Although disappointed in their expectations by the daily reality of the caliphate, many former ISIS militants find themselves abandoned. They are stateless citizens without documents or money, impossible to reintegrate into society, with armed warfare as their only qualification on their résumé.”
In fact, there are still approximately 10,000 active fighters, in addition to thousands of former militants held in poorly managed prisons. A case in point is the situation at the al-Sinaa prison near Baghdad, where in 2022, a group of 300 fighters detonated a car bomb and freed 3,500 fellow prisoners. Two weeks later, on February 3, 2022, U.S. special forces killed the fugitive leader Abu Ibrahim al-Qurashi (also known as Haji Abdullah) in northern Syria.
What remains now is a small group of soldiers who have not lost faith in their ideals, fighting in rural areas of the Middle East without holding any real territory. It is a weakened and small organization led by leaders hidden in desert areas, periodically eliminated by U.S. special forces. Consider that, following the leader’s killing on February 3, 2022, another leader had been elected by March 10.
Today’s Real Problems
ISIS is no longer in the constant and visible growth of the past. Media interest in the group has significantly waned, reduced to occasional articles in secondary sections about potential terrorist attacks in Eastern churches. With it, our interest has waned as well. But this does not mean it is a closed chapter in our history.
Syria, ravaged by terrorist and American bombings, is in a slow and faltering phase of recovery. Refugee camps (such as al-Hol, referred to as the “Guantanamo of the Middle East”) experience an average of 2 murders per week and continuous attacks by armed groups claimed by ISIS.
The United States announced the killing of the former leader Abu al Hussein al Hussayni al Qurashi just two months ago, a confirmation subsequently echoed by ISIS. Meanwhile, on August 1, there was a deadly attack on an election rally in Pakistan claimed by the group.
What we have before us is a situation that is less pronounced, at least in the West, despite violent outbreaks that show no sign of stopping. It will take much more than the deaths of leaders and skirmishes to completely defeat what until a few years ago seemed like a serious threat to the Middle East and beyond. Could situations like this reemerge, perhaps with new faces, as they did after al-Qaeda? I leave it up to you to decide, for better or worse.
“Do you think that you have won the war against the Islamic State when you killed Abu Musab al-Zarqawi or Bin Laden or… Do you think that you will win the war if you kill Abu Omar al-Shishani or Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi…?” [quoted by Abu Muhamad Adnani in 2016]
I sincerely thank you for making it this far, as this is a long and quite difficult article. I devoted a lot of time to research and organizing the wealth of information, and I hope it has been worth it.
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