Mixing real and fake documents to create election FUD, the #macronleaks were predictable and bring back memories of the Clearstream Affair
With Terra Nova, we suggested two months ago that we should adapt election rules to the 21st century
Emmanuel Macron’s campaign seems to have been the target of a massive computer hack that dumped its campaign emails online on Friday night. Indeed, the mails are now everywhere and include tons of information (they are purported to represent as much as 9 gigabytes of data).
Mixing real and fake information, they’re supposed to create Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt among voters.
People are already trying to track the leak but fortunately, French rules forbid any press commentary liable to influence an election, which took effect at midnight on Friday (2200 GMT). The ban is due to stay in place until the last polling stations close Sunday at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT).
Thus, these leaks might not have a too strong effect on the campaign. But they could have had. And it creates a strange paradox where these leaks will be the main subject of conversation among French people during the week-end, without anyone being able to comment on them publicly.
But it’s not a healthy situation, and they could have impact outside of the scope of the election anyway:
- The fact that François Fillon lost due to scandals and affairs will create a climate of rage and resentment ;
- On Sunday night, at 20h01, journalists will have spent 48 hours digging through the docs and they will have tons of horrible stories, which is not the best way to begin a Presidency ;
- Any nominees by the new government will be under heavy scrutiny with regards to what’s concerning him in the leaks, or even with leaks to come in mind ;
- Upcoming parliamentary elections in June will be under stress for the same reasons.
With the think tank Terra Nova, we have been addressing the issue two months ago in a report where we insisted that the electoral code should be modified to take these threats into account, and that measures should be take to try to prevent them.
But this is not the first time that French politicians are targeted by a hack mixing real and fake information. People should remember the Clearstream affair from 13 years ago.
It was already the result of a leak.
In 2004, a CDROM leaked to the French judge Renaud Van Ruymbeke indicated that Clearstream was a money laundering organisation covering illegal activities of French businessmen and politicians who were involved in the sale of warships by French defense giant Thales to Taiwan.
As with the #macronleaks, the leakers tried to mix tiny bits of fake information amongst a total list of 16 121 fraudulent bank accounts and 895. People such as Nicolas Sarkozy (the former French President), Laurent Fabius (the current head of the Constitutional Court) or Dominique Strauss-Kahn were wrongly implied to be involved.
As an example of manipulation, two italian bank accounts were fakely listed under the names of “Stéphane Bocsa” and “Paul de Nagy”, trying to link to Nicolas Sarkozy whose full name is Nicolas Sarközy de Nagy-Bocsa. The accounts were real, but they were absolutely not to his name. Another one was listed in a Colombian bank under Alain Gomez, the former President of Thales, when the real owner was intially a man named “Hugo Caceres Gomez”.
Finally, in late 2005, a French hacker named Imad Lahoud was convicted to three years in jail for the whole affair.
But what took long planning and could only be executed years before the election in 2004 is now achievable in weeks or months and can planified to execute during the last moment of the election, when it’s too late to launch an investigation.
France is only the latest nation to see a major election overshadowed by accusations of manipulation through cyber hacking. Next ones will be the French legislative election in June, and the German election later this year.
Isn’t it time to understand that this is a real risk and adapt our rules? When I worked on the report for Terra Nova, I warned policymakers and internet giants that this could lead to dire consequences. We proposed several solutions such as providing cybersecurity support to candidates in the same way they are provided with physical security, or asking social networks to display calls to caution in sharing instead of advertisements.
If the election was to be canceled because of this leak, do you want to bet that twitter and facebook would be turned off next time?
And who can say #macronleaks will have no impact on the upcoming legislative in June.
It’s not a very satisfying perspective.
