Is Donald Trump’s poll bump significant?
The title of a New York Times article this week put it succinctly, “Donald Trump’s lousy week (except for the polling)”. While his controversial comments seem to be creating a dent in Trump’s wallet, he is soaring (and I mean soaring) in the polls, beyond the wildest expectations of all media pundits.
As of the writing of this article, the two latest polls, from CNN and Fox, place him in second position, just behind Jeb Bush. The third latest poll on the list, from Yougov/Economist has him at the top, one point above Jeb Bush! AT THE TOP of the chart for GOP nomination!
Almost no one took Trump seriously. He was the laughing stock of late night comedy when he made his announcement speech. And yet, he seems to have struck a chord with likely Republican voters. So what’s going on? Lets first look at how polling numbers have changed for other candidates after announcement.
Almost every Republican candidate has received a bump in the polls, after making an announcement, as you can see above. For each candidate, I have taken 10 polls, just before their announcement, and 10 just after their announcement. I then show the change in poll rating with time, relative to the poll just before announcement.
This bump in ratings is quite expected. Announcements give candidates much coveted front page news space, people take them more seriously, and their campaign machines hit the road with all its energy. However, what is really interesting, is that the rating increase fizzles out quite quickly. Almost for every candidate, after the two week mark, ratings start going down again, to their equilibrium value. Now, lets look at Donald Trump.
As you can see above, Donald Trump has got a bump that no other candidate this season has got after announcing. Trump’s polling bump is waay, waaay ahead of his colleagues. While most candidates got a bump between 3% and 7%, Trump’s poll ratings have increased by almost 11–12%. That’s huge!
There is no question, that he has generated an interest that no other Republican candidate has been able to do. The pundits had been wrong to write him off, and not consider him a serious candidate. As a side note, also note how weak Jeb Bush’s bump has been, and seems to be already fizzling out. It is probably because everyone knew Jeb was running, long before he announced.
Now, clearly Trump is a candidate who is appealing to a section of people, which has been propelling him up in the polls. To deny that would be to fight against cold hard data. However, We must be cautious. He is yet to cross the 15 day barrier. His fall, after the initial euphoria dies down, might be as dramatic as his rise. As of now though, his poll ratings are going over the roof, towering above other like the skyscrapers that he is so famous for.
Data Source: Huffpost Pollster
