NASA Under Trump: What might lie ahead for the US Space Program?

6 min readFeb 11, 2017

In this multi-part series on President Donald Trump’s space agenda, what will become of NASA?

Will our unpredictable new president shut NASA down, or will he reshape it to reflect his priorities?

With former NASA administrator Charles Bolden recently retired from his post, who is likely to lead the United States’ most popular agency and what changes might follow?

In a conversation I had a with a former White House Office Science Technology Poilicy under the Obama administration, it was suggested that not much will change in 2017. However, 2018 and beyond it is possible we’ll see changes at NASA.

We’re wrapping up the third week of the Trump administration and we haven’t heard nor seen much recent activity on space policy aside from the mention of “Mysteries of speech” in President Trump’s inaugural speech on January 20th, 2017.

For starters, Trump is not going to shut down NASA.

Secondly, the President has not yet appointed the next NASA administrator who will take over from recently retired Charles Bolden. Currently, Robert M. Lightfoot, Jr. is serving as the interim NASA administrator until POTUS names his replacement nominee.

We can look to the fall campaign for clues as to what direction NASA might head.

In addition to management of space activities, NASA oversees the advancement of aeronautical technologies and also in charge of monitoring Earth Sciences. The later may fall under new scrutiny given that Earth Sciences monitors climate as one part of its current activities.

Please keep in mind it is challenging for one President’s vision for NASA to live beyond the President’s time in office. It’s possible for the a new President to cancel, curtail, or dramatically change inherited programs for previous administrations.

It is possible that NASA will to continue stay the course with current efforts from the Obama administration. Of course all of this is subject to Congressional funding, a key point.

However 2018 and beyond is almost anyone’s guess.

We can also look for clues about NASA’s future through two Trump policy advisors — Former U.S. congressman Robert Walker and University of California, Irvine Professor of Economics, Peter Navarro.

Advisors Walker and Navarro hinted at what might come in a campaign-approved October op-ed published at SpaceNews.

Walker and Navarro describe Trump’s policy on space as visionary, disruptive, coordinating and resilient — but what does that actually mean? Let’s attempt to break it down.

Visionary

The use of the word visionary in my mind is overplayed word if not backed up with with definable or measurable goals. Visionary could though mean to continue with some of the polices that were set under the previous Obama Administration given the lack of information on what visionary means to this administration.

That may seem counterintuitive but Obama set for innovative policies on space promoting public-private partnerships were a first for NASA and seen as innovative. Given President Trump’s pro business attitude, there’s no compelling reason he would discontinue the public-private partnerships initiated under Obama.

Disruptive

Disruptive is another buzz word. However, continuing with the innovative partnerships between NASA and commercial sector is a disruptive idea for NASA. The space agency historically would take care of almost all space activities albeit with some support by private contracts. Industry is now partnered with NASA to take over cargo logistics and crew transportation freeing the agency up for exploration and advanced research areas.

Coordinating

One might interpret “coordinating” to mean that government agencies will increase their activity level and engagement with the commercial sector. Commercial partnerships already underway via the Commercial Crew and Cargo program, which supplies the International Space Station.

It might also mean additional coordination between the commercial sector and with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) which is currently in charge of American civil weather capabilities. Coordinating might also include a deepening of ties with Department of Defense (DoD) which has its own space assets and mandate. Although DoD and NASA are separate, NASA sometimes partners with DoD.

Resilience

Resilience could be described it as meaning multiple ways to create a desired outcome.

Resilience is widely discussed, particularly in military space. In April 12, 2016, General John Hyten — the then commanding officer of US Air Force Space Command — announced “Space Enterprise Vision.” This commissioned study examined “how to make the nation’s national security space enterprise more resilient.”

The idea of resilience for US space leadership is extremely complex as it touches on the nuances of how our vastly complicated supply chain, procurement processes, technology development, services and other factors related to each other.

It is difficult to predict which specific areas of the space program will change or remain more or less the same to create a state of resilience.

Launch capability is one hotly contested area and most noted in terms of resilience. Since the Space Shuttle’s retirement in 2011, NASA contracts with the Russian space agency to send US astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) until domestic capabilities return to operation.

US companies, Boeing and SpaceX won competitive contracts in 2014 to take future American crews to the International Space Station (ISS). Boeing and SpaceX’s respective manned programs are still in development with first crewed flights possibly in 2018 or 2019.

In addition, resilience may also refer to identifying and enable ways for non-traditional organizations — such as smaller start-ups — to work with NASA and DoD’s respective space programs.

President Trump’s business background and strong campaigning for domestic job growth might prove favorable for public investment in NASA and related areas

There are additional breadcrumbs dropped later in the fall 2016 campaign from President Trump’s space policy advisor, Walker. Walker laid out nine points in a meeting this past fall at the FAA’s office of Commercial Space Transportation as reported by Jeff Foust of Space News.

1. Commitment to global space leadership

2. Reinstitution of National Space Council

3. A goal of “human exploration of the solar system by the end of the century”

4. Shifting NASA budgets to focus on “deep space achievements”

5. Development of small satellite technologies

6. Seek world leadership in hypersonics technology

7. Hand over access to and operations in low Earth orbit to the commercial sector.

8. Initiate discussions around private and public partners for ISS operations

9. “Require that all federal agencies develop plans for how they would use ‘space assets and space developments’ to carry out their missions⁠”

Almost all of the points above are already underway in one form or another with the exception of point number 2 and point 3.

Regarding point number two, The National Space Council was originally created in 1989 by President H.W. Bush to “provide a coordinated process for developing a national space policy and strategy and for monitoring its implementation. ” That incarnation was then chaired by then Vice President Dan Quayle.

It is presumed that revised version of the council would be chaired by current Vice President Mike Pence. Most space policy experts agree the first one proved ineffective and remains unclear what strategic or useful advantage would have.

In my next post, I’ll address growing areas of concern which include the status of International Space Station, a potential asteroid redirect mission, the emerging commercial space services sector, earth science missions, and ongoing debate of Mars versus the Moon.

Number three is an intriguing one because it specifically states “human exploration.” It does not mention any one planet in particular. There’s enough ambiguity in this one to give fodder for space-speculators who continue to debate whether humans are next going to the Moon, Mars, or somewhere else in our solar system?

Could we see humans visiting Pluto by the 2090’s — possible, but there are significant hurdles would need to be solved.

There’s not been enough credible data to know for sure where NASA is next headed. I hope you now have a better sense of the possibilities and challenges are for NASA under the Trump administration.

In the next piece, I’ll dive a little deeper on specific NASA programs and missions under the Trump administration.

Additional Sources:

NASA Under Trump: What might lie ahead for the US Space Program?

Written by Robert C. Jacobson