Building Energy Meteorology Momentum
By Martha Christino, University of Michigan
Energy meteorology centers on understanding the impact of weather on various facets of the energy sector, ranging from consumption to natural resource supply chains. The February 2021 Texas winter storm and blackouts illustrate the deadly potential of inadequate energy system weather preparedness, signaling a dire need to manage extreme weather across the energy sector. The 2021 Texas winter storm resulted in extensive loss of electricity generation capacity, translating to 246 deaths. The prevalence of severe weather as a risk factor suggests that resilience and adaptability are critical for national energy security. Recent history is rife with incidences linking severe weather to energy insecurity. Examples aren’t limited to cold — heatwaves, hurricanes, and wildfires highlight the vulnerability of energy infrastructure to diverse weather phenomena.
There’s a consensus among researchers that the electricity industry’s vulnerability to changing weather patterns must be prioritized. A transdisciplinary approach fusing climate and energy forecasting is paramount in developing robust energy systems. As global weather patterns shift and evolve, the impact of severe weather on the energy sector becomes an increasingly acute concern. The experiences of past disasters — from winter storms to hurricanes — elucidate the pressing need for robust weather preparedness and response strategies within our energy systems. Academic research underscores this urgency, advocating for a synergy between energy modeling and meteorological forecasting to safeguard future energy systems.
The legislative establishment of a dedicated Energy Meteorology Initiative under the DOE Office of Science would symbolize a concerted effort to tackle energy meteorology challenges. Based on existing initiatives, a ~$9 million budget reflective of funding allocated to equivalent initiatives would promote interdisciplinary research on securing energy infrastructure (including distribution, transmission, and generation systems) against weather-related vulnerabilities.
Despite historical acknowledgment of these challenges, dedicated initiatives within the DOE Office of Science addressing these concerns are lacking. While incremental increase to the DOE budget and interagency collaborations can provide interim support, the establishment of a distinct Energy Meteorology Initiative within the DOE Office of Science would mark a significant and structured stride towards securing national energy reliability.
The repercussions of inaction are tangible, with forecasts predicting across-the-board impacts on the U.S. electrical grid and associated risks ranging from financial losses to mortalities. To mitigate these risks, strategic DOE budget increase proposals should include funding for integrated research infrastructure and enhanced coordination for weather and environmental forecasts. Yet budget increases alone will not shift momentum to focus on energy metrology. A proposed Energy Meteorology Working Group, encompassing different government agencies, could foster collaborative solutions to predict and mitigate weather impacts on energy systems. However, it’s imperative to delineate its role from pre-existing bodies like Interagency Council for Advancing Meteorology, and recognize the DOE’s central position in disaster response and energy research.
Research shows that if we do not address energy meteorology, impacts between now and 2090 range from $13.4 to $23.7 billion in additional costs for transmission and distribution infrastructure alone if no proactive work is done. These costs come from decreasing transmission efficiency and transformer lifespans in severe temperatures, pole decay, and physical damages from wildfires/winds. There is an evident gap between existing efforts and the critical need for a comprehensive energy meteorology initiative.
Focusing on the Department of Energy (DOE), This new initiative would elevate energy meteorology to the forefront of transdisciplinary research, with the explicit aim of fortifying the energy sector against the disruptive forces of nature. It would enable effective collaborations across numerous DOE offices, ensuring that initiatives cater to both immediate and long-term goals of energy resilience. Such a dedicated effort could lead to improved predictive capabilities, smarter infrastructure planning, and innovative technologies designed for resilience, thereby mitigating risks and averting potential humanitarian and economic losses.
Ultimately, prioritizing energy meteorology research is not just a prudent scientific endeavor but a social imperative. The evolving threat landscape demands a proactive and strategic response, possessing the power to influence policy and shape ground-breaking collaborations. By embracing the challenges of energy meteorology with vigor and vision, the DOE can lead a transformation in achieving a weather-resilient energy future — a future where energy systems weather the storm, keeping lives protected and the fabric of society intact.
References
Texas Health and Human Services. “February 2021 Winter Storm-Related Deaths — Texas.” Texas Department of State Health Services. Dec 31, 2021.
Larson, LaCommare, Eto, and Sweeney. “Assessing Changes in the Reliability of the U.S. Electric Power System.” Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. August, 2015.
Michael T. Craig, Jan Wohland, Laurens P. Stoop, Alexander Kies, Bryn Pickering, Hannah C. Bloomfield, Jethro Browell, Matteo De Felice, Chris J. Dent, Adrien Deroubaix, Felix Frischmuth, Paula L.M. Gonzalez, Aleksander Grochowicz, Katharina Gruber, Philipp Härtel, Martin Kittel, Leander Kotzur, Inga Labuhn, Julie K. Lundquist, Noah Pflugradt, Karin van der Wiel, Marianne Zeyringer, and David J. Brayshaw. Overcoming the Disconnect Between Energy System and Climate Modeling. Joule, Volume 6, Issue 7, 2022, Pages 1405–1417, ISSN 2542–4351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.05.010.
Department of Energy. “FY 2024 Congressional Request: Science.” March, 2023.
Charles Fant, Brent Boehlert, Kenneth Strzepek, Peter Larsen, Alisa White, Sahil Gulati, Yue Li, and Jeremy Martinich. Climate Change Impacts and Costs to U.S. Electricity Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure. Energy, Volume 195, 2020,116899, ISSN 0360–5442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.116899.
Acknowledgements: This op-ed was written for the Science Policy & Advocacy for Research Competition (SPARC) series at the Universities Research Association. Thanks to the SPARC reviewers, Lauren Wagner, Diane Karloff, Piyush Kumar, Adriana Bankston, and Cindy Achat-Mendes.
About the Author
Martha is a 1st year PhD student in the University of Michigan’s School for Environment and Sustainability on a dual track for a second degree in the Climate and Space program. Martha’s research interests focus on combining climate and energy models to create resilient infrastructure.
