Ranking NBA Teams It Will Be Fun To Be Fans Of Five Years From Now

Author’s note: This is an article I completed at the conclusion of the 2023 regular season and does not reflect any of the results from The Playoffs or this offseason.

Tier 5: These teams are “all in” and playing for right now, future sustainable winning be damned.

30. Los Angeles Lakers

I tried my hardest to come up with any other team with a bleaker future but when compared against the expectations of their fanbase, I don’t see a bigger delta across the league. The bubble championship is less meaningful with each passing day and five years from now, I doubt Lakers fans will find comfort in that 2020 title run while suffering through consecutive 40-loss seasons.

Given the way this organization has functioned the past decade, there is no evidence to suggest they have a plan post-LeBron other than somehow landing another superstar. While history shows L.A. has a pretty good track record of landing superstars, more recent history might encourage those stars to come play for the other team in L.A. Make your Clipper jokes if you want (I do all the time) but eliminate the 2020 bubble and the Lakers haven’t had an ounce of postseason success since Kobe’s last title. The Clippers have been the more well run franchise for the last 10 years and that’s an indictment on the current Buss regime. So raise a glass Laker fans and here’s to winning a ring between now and LeBron’s last game as a Laker. Don’t worry if it doesn’t work out, you’ll always have the bubble ring.

29. Chicago Bulls

I know it seems ridiculous to say Chicago, a team that had to fight all season just to secure the last play-in spot, is “in win-now-mode”, but how else do you explain their actions? At the 2021 trade deadline, with a roster built to at best lose a Playoff series, Chicago traded for Nikola Vuccevic. After two of his worst shooting seasons to date, and zero Playoff series won, he’s still a Bull. Continuing the string of poor decisions, Chicago has held off on trading DeMar DeRozan, instead dangling Zach Levine’s name as trade bait shortly after re-signing him to a five-year, $215 million dollar deal.

This team is salary capped out, finished below .500, yet refuses to hit the rebuild button. It’s honorable and I want to respect the effort but it’s also shortsighted. Looking to the future, a key player they hoped and paid like he would be a franchise building block, Lonzo Ball, is sadly approaching, “don’t know if he’s going to play basketball again” territory. 2020 number four overall pick, Patrick Williams, has shown flashes but appears to be more of a role-player than a franchise building block. That means the player Chicago can pair with LaVine to rise above barely a Play-In team isn’t on the current roster. They decided that guy wasn’t now first time All-Star, Lauri Markkanen. They sent him to Cleveland in 2021 only to come away with now pending UFA, Derrick Jones Jr, and Portland’s 2022 1st-round pick which they used to draft Dalen Terry (averaged 5 minutes per game this season). So, you see, the Bulls truly are in win-now-mode. The problem is they shouldn’t be and no one in that front office seems to realize it.

28. Phoenix Suns

At the conclusion of the regular season, the Suns are among the favorites to win the 2022–23 NBA title. Executing the biggest trade in trade deadline history, first day owner, Mat Ishbia, made the Suns the league’s number one “all in” team. I do hesitate slightly putting the Suns this high on the list as there are two paths I can see for their future…

Let’s start with the path that would make me look stupid for putting them in this tier. Over the next five seasons, Phoenix wins at least one championship with their KD, Booker, Ayton, and possibly CP3 core. By the time the 2028 season starts, CP3 has long retired. A now 39-year-old KD, if he’s still playing, returns on a more team-friendly deal in 2026 and Phoenix uses the extra cap space to sign a big name free agent. Finally, sometime before the start of the 2025 season, Deandre Ayton is flipped for draft capital/younger assets which Phoenix uses to retool and maintain a Playoff-caliber roster around a very much still in his prime, 31-year-old Devin Booker.

But…since I did put Phoenix in this tier, I guess I’m more inclined to believe another scenario plays out. Over the next five seasons, the Suns do not win a championship. 2028 starts with KD, CP3 and, Monty Williams all gone. In 2026, Ayton leaves in free agency for more money, if he’s not traded first, which leaves Devin Booker, who in 2024 locked in for his five-year supermax, staring at a roster with no All-Stars and a reputation as a team and player who got close all those years but never broke through. If this scenario plays out, it will likely say less about Phoenix than it will about the increasing number of teams legitimately competing for the title.

27. Portland Trail Blazers

Blazers fans have been on an emotional rollercoaster the past ten years. They’ve watched Dame Lillard go from league’s best kept secret to full-on superstar with not one, but two series-ending walk-off threes on his resume. CJ McCollum went from a number 10 pick out of Lehigh to one of the league’s better two guards and during that time, Portland had their postseason battles, peaking with a Western Conference Finals appearance in 2019. Eventually though, years of not being able to break through took its toll and for a bevy of reasons (not all basketball related) the organization has been overhauled top to bottom with an ownership change inevitably pending. With new Team Presidents, GMs, coaches, & players all trying to establish themselves, at first glance this appears to be a team that’s going through somewhat of a rebuild. So why aren’t they?

So long as Dame has been a Blazer, Portland has had to at least pretend they are doing everything to win at all costs. In an era of player movement, Dame firmly planted his flag in Portland. The Blazers have not lived up to their end of the bargain and have failed to build a roster to support one of the 10 best players in the sport for far too long. This season got so bad Portland couldn’t even pretend like they were trying and officially threw in the towel with about two weeks left in the regular season, shutting Lillard down in the process. Short of landing Wembanyama this summer, I think it’s possible Dame has played his last game as a Blazer. Between a subpar roster, a coach in Chauncy Billups searching for his first winning season, and the second greatest player in franchise history possibly out the door, the future in Portland if nothing else is murky. Who knows, five years from now the SuperSonics might have returned to Seattle to challenge the Blazers for Pacific Northwest supremacy.

26. Los Angeles Clippers

Being the better team in L.A. might be a low bar to clear in 2028 but being better than the Lakers could be the Clippers national identity should they fail to win a title. Slated to move into their brand-new Inglewood arena in 2024, LA is banking it all on two aging stars who have both accumulated a concerning number of injuries throughout their respective careers. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George only play together sometimes but when they do, they’re one of the best duos in the league. Hopefully they’ll be playing together in the Playoffs but until I see it, I don’t believe a Clipper will raise the Larry O’Brien trophy (and even if I see it, I still won’t believe it).

Part of the reason I think Clippers fans will have at least something to be excited about in five years is because their owner will stop at no cost to ensure his team is relevant. No way in hell Balmer is opening the $2 billion dollar Intuit Dome without some younger star power locked in long-term. To quickly speculate on some names I could see them realistically pursing over the next five seasons: Joel Embiid (has Player Option in 2026 and the Philly thing might eventually run its course), Luka Doncic (hard to see Mark Cuban losing his guy but Luka frustration rumors are already starting and he also has 26–27 Player Option), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (is an UFA in 2027 but I can see him being a frequent discussion in trade talks if the Thunder aren’t winning in the Playoffs well before then), Anthony Edwards (he hasn’t even hit his first big contract and I can already see him wanting out of Minnesota as soon as it makes financial sense to do so).

25. Golden State Warriors

No fan base has had as much fun routing for their team over the last 10 years than Warriors fans. The Dubs have been the gold standard in the league for so long that an entire generation of their fanbase has no idea the franchises’ most celebrated team was an eight seed. Warrior fans too young to remember Baron Davis putting Andre Kirilenko on a poster aren’t prepared to root for a 50-loss team. Sure, they had that one bad season in 2019–2020, but that could be explained away by the departure of KD along with the injuries to both Steph and Klay. Besides they were right back reloaded for another title run by the time 2022 rolled around and all was quickly forgiven.

Ask San Antonio Spurs fans, who got to watch their team win five championships over the course of 15 seasons, how much all that winning has softened the blow of being one of the league’s least watchable teams recently. Being raised in a culture of winning makes years of consistent losing that much worse. The Warriors have won more games than anyone in the league over the last 10 seasons and eventually the core responsible for all that winning was going to age out. Based on his skill set, Draymond seems like he’ll be the first one to go. Klay Thompson’s ability to shoot the ball will always be valuable and help him age more gracefully but it’s hard to say what condition his body will be in come season 16. Finally, Steph will be pushing 40-years-old making north of $55 million dollars a year after a career playing an unprecedented level of minutes. To avoid returning to the basement of the Western Conference, unless they swing a big trade, Golden State will need to acquire several lottery-picks and start the organic dynasty process over again. Hey, they did it once right? I don’t think anyone truly saw all this winning coming back in 2009 when they drafted Curry 8th overall. Who’s to say the 2026 Draft can’t be the starting point of another 10-year run?

Tier 4: These teams merely by trying to incrementally improve can make their fanbase happy.

24. Washington Wizards

The Wizards don’t seem motivated to win games so much as just being a viable money-making operation. Washington perpetually hovers just outside playoff territory but are paying title-contender money to do so (currently sitting around $60 million over the cap, behind only the Clippers and Warriors). Bradley Beal is a hell of a player, but he’s turning 30 soon, will be making $57 million by the 2026–27 season, and hasn’t been past the first round of the postseason since 2017.

Hovering just above mediocrity is exactly how the Wizards maintain their place as the DMVs 4th hottest ticket, behind the Commanders, Capitals, and Mystics (they’d be 5th if the Nationals were good again). Washington is 22nd in attendance this season which correlates perfectly with a roster that isn’t expected to win and a franchise that has sadly lost their connection to a region synonymous with basketball. Post John Wall era, the Wizards have been a revolving door of players coming and going with no clear direction for the future. Draft-wise, the only meaningful pick they’ve had in five years, Rui Hachimura, they traded away for a chance to maybe draft the next Rui Hachimura… (“a boat’s a boat, but a mystery box could be anything, it could even be a boat…”). Presumably their next move will be offering Kyle Kuzma too much money for his inefficient 21 points a night and from there, I don’t see a path to hope for anything more than what this team is now; wholly uninteresting.

23. Indiana Pacers

Though they desperately need to rebuild, historically the Pacers have avoided “actively tanking” out of fear their fans will lose interest and ticket revenue (especially season ticket packages) drops. For the 2022–23 season, Indiana was second to last in league attendance. Based off those number, it seems like the organization could endure a couple bad seasons in pursuit of a high lottery-pick but maybe times are hard for their billionaire owner, Herbert Simon, head of one of the world’s largest real-estate investment trusts. Thankfully for the Pacers front office, they didn’t have to tank to land Tyrese Haliburton. Now with an All-Star already on the roster, Indy is a step closer to becoming a perennial playoff team again.

A current core of Haliburton, Myles Turner, and Buddy Hield isn’t the sexiest big three, but it is a solid one. All three players are young (Hield is the old head at 30), they’re all on team-friendly deals (especially Haliburton who’s on a rookie-scale deal through summer 2024) and if the front office doesn’t see enough collective production from them, the roster is flexible enough to make moves without needing a complete teardown. So long as the current front office and coaching staff are in place, I look for the Pacers to continue improving and eventually make their way back to The Playoffs. While Pacers fans might not expect anything beyond postseason appearances, they’d better hope that level of complacency is cool with their 23-year-old All-Star. Indiana hasn’t had many of those recently, so they need to ensure the next five seasons are about making Haliburton happy.

22. Atlanta Hawks

I don’t have any proof that the goal of the Atlanta Hawks is to win games more than it is to entertain the city of Atlanta between football seasons. As a former Atlanta resident, I know firsthand how passionate the city is about the Falcons and Braves, even when those teams aren’t good. When it comes to the Hawks, I’m not saying the city doesn’t care, it just feels like a fanbase that likes basketball and the Hawks happen to be the team in town. I understand where they’re coming from considering at no point in the last 20 years has anyone, anywhere, thought the Hawks were going to win anything of significance. They’ve had 60-win teams that earned the top seed in the postseason, and we all just waited to see which round they would be eliminated in.

The Hawks are currently on their third head coach in two years and at this point it’s fair to question if keeping Trae Young is more important to Atlanta than organizational stability. Presumably they have fired the last two coaches either at the behest of or for the perceived benefit of their All-Star point guard. If things don’t change and quickly under Quinn Snyder, the roster is in for a shakeup because are they really going to fire another coach? The addition of Dejounte Murray was supposed to move the Hawks closer to contender status out East but instead they’ve taken a step back, fought all year to stay above .500, and now the future direction of this roster is in question. The “Trae Young could get traded” rumors have started again and will be an ongoing discussion into the offseason. With Murray set to hit free agency after next season and Young due at least $215 million over the next four years, the Hawks have some decisions to make about their backcourt. I don’t know that Atlanta will make moves that improve next season’s win total, but as I mentioned, I don’t think that’s the priority. Give these fans what they’re accustomed to and that’s player drama, front office gossip and treating the coaching staff like the cast of True Detective and recasting them every season.

21. Brooklyn Nets

Whoever Brooklyn Nets fans are, they can’t expect much and a return to normalcy should be welcomed with open arms. The Kyrie and KD experiment was about as big a failure as we’ve seen in league history, and as much as the focus is on the players, let it be a blueprint for all owners on how not to run a franchise. Acquiring top-end talent is a priority but allowing that talent free reign over the franchise to do whatever they want is almost certainly destined to fail. Once it was clear to team owner, Joe Tsai, that the Kyrie experiment was over in Brooklyn, the billionaire took his toy back and hit the reset button.

It’s damn near impossible to recoup equal value when trading a superstar but trading two superstars, mid-season, and within weeks of each other was uncharted territory. Given the odds against them, I think Brooklyn navigated the waters well and GM Sean Marks likely bought himself at least an extra years’ worth of job security for doing so. Since the James Harden trade, the Nets received the following players/draft picks that can help them steadily improve over the next five seasons…

Players: Ben Simmons, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder (traded to Milwaukee for picks & cash considerations), Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Seth Curry,

Picks: Sixers 2023 1st-round pick (unprotected), Sixers 2027 1st-round pick (1–8 protected), Mavericks 2029 1st-round pick (unprotected), Mavericks 2027, 2029 2nd-round picks, Suns 2023, 2025, 2027, & 2029, 1st-round picks (all unprotected), 2028 rights to 1st-round Pick Swap with Suns, Bucks 2028 & 2029 2nd round picks (from flipping Jae Crowder)

The Nets are going to have a lot of opportunities over the next several drafts and will need to nail some picks to stay competitive out East. It might not excite most fan bases to hear that five years from now your team could be a few games over .500 and a 5 seed capable of pulling a first-round upset, but I think Nets fans, whoever they are and wherever they may be, will take that.

20. Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors might be the coolest franchise in NBA history. The Raptors came into the league with a cool factor that has aged incredibly. From year one, the Damon Stoudamire purple jersey with the black and white stripes and the red raptor just stood out. Next came unmatched highlight reel, Vince Carter, the epitome of cool and single-handedly responsible for the greatest performance in Slam Dunk Contest history and this current generation of Canadian basketball players. At the height of Vincanity and after three straight trips to the Playoffs (from 00–02), the Raptors missed the 2003 postseason, but ended up with a top four pick in what was dubbed the best draft class since 1996. They took Chris Bosh at four, who was undoubtably great and helped redefine the power forward position. Bosh seamlessly assumed the mantel of franchise player, made five All-Star teams as a Raptor and following a four-year postseason drought, lead the team back to the Playoffs in consecutive seasons between 06 and 08.

In 2010, after again watching the franchise’s best player leave for another team, the Raptors were in jeopardy of fading from relevancy. They were rescued by the least likely of heroes, Kyle Lowry, then playing for his third team and another poor season away from possibly being out of the league entirely. By pairing Lowry with a young and improving DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors climbed back into the postseason and by 2013 set a franchise record for wins in a season. Despite their success, Toronto was in the same unfortunate position as the other 13 teams in their conference that didn’t roster LeBron James. Toronto looked destined to lose in the second round every year until The King decided to up and change conferences. Teams out East had to act quickly to seize the vacancy in power, and Toronto did just that. DeMar DeRozan, an objectively below average postseason performer, was shipped out and Kawhi Leonard, the MVP of a Finals that included Lebron James, Tim Duncan, and Dwyane Wade, made his way north. In that first (and only) season led by Kawhi, a team new enough its mascot was inspired by the movie Jurassic Park wins an NBA title, put over the top by a rental superstar.

So after a brief look at their history, when have Raptors fans ever really been bothered? In 27 seasons of existence, they’ve been Playoff participants in 13 of them including a streak of eight in a row between the 2013–2022 seasons. The worst of their Playoff heartbreak was because they couldn’t beat the greatest player of this generation and of course that’s all forgotten once the Rent-A-Kawhi route resulted in a ring. Masai Ujiri is an elite-level front office executive and even when it seems like a potential down year for Toronto, they still find their way into the Playoff picture. Headed into this offseason, the Raptors are set up to clear the books and build their future roster around Scottie Barnes. If I were a new fan to the league and looking for a team to root for, sign me up for this franchise.

19. Utah Jazz

The Jazz exist in a weird space where they only get national attention when one of their stars wants out of Salt Lake City. After a complete franchise overhaul the past few seasons, most assumed 2023 would find Utah joining teams in the race to the bottom. Instead, Lauri Markkanen made an All-Star team, they flipped a couple rotational players, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt, to the Lakers for future 1st-round picks and still finished the season with one less win than last year’s Western Conference finalist, Dallas Mavericks (more on them later). I don’t want to give Danny Ainge too much credit yet, but damn he’s good at his job! In just his first year, Ainge has put together a young and financially flexible roster, gathered a war chest of draft picks, and though Salt Lake isn’t known as a free agent hotspot, the Jazz are set up to have a ton of cap space moving forward.

Despite losing their two best players during the offseason, it seems like the Jazz are positioned to at the very least be a play-in or fringe Playoff team as soon as next season. Lauri Markkanen is better than I think most of us (especially Chicago) thought, Talen Horton-Tucker, Colin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson (should he stay one more year) are a formidable backcourt, Walker Kessler might already be better than Rudy Gobert (especially if we’re considering contracts), and Will Hardy appears to have been a good coaching hire. By 2028, it’s reasonable to expect the Jazz to consistently hover around that five to seven seed range, which will be just good enough for us to not pay them any attention until their next All-Star wants out.

Tier 3: These teams are still a lottery pick or more away from playoff contention, but could be fun to cheer for on the way up.

18. San Antonio Spurs

After 15 years of sustained excellence, Greg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs have done a complete 180 and are now setting a new watermark in tanking excellence. Entering the season with Keldon Johnson as option one, two, and three, the Spurs ensured no team has better odds at Victor Wembanyama this summer. From a salary cap standpoint, San Antonio will have money to spend in free agency to improve a roster that is clearly the worst in the league. If the Spurs can surround Johnson with an improved roster while adding a top three pick from the 2023 draft class, I believe Pop keeps it rolling into yet another decade.

If however the Spurs’ pick falls outside the top three, the talent drop-off at that spot could mean at least another few seasons of 40+ losses. At that point the question becomes; does Pop hang it up or undertake yet another rebuild, maybe from a front office role? I don’t want to say that all hinges on this one draft, but it’s hard to ignore it feels like San Antonio has been positioning themselves for this moment and draft for multiple seasons now. While it’s not Wembanyama or bust, anything less than Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller could mean a new coach for the Spurs and the end of a legendary era under Popovich. So yeah… maybe it does all hinge on this summer’s draft.

17. Houston Rockets

The Rockets have been in rebuild mode since trading James Harden during the 2020–21 season. A full two seasons later we’re starting to see the foundation Houston has laid for the future and while it’s not the most well-rounded roster, they have some interesting young pieces that would benefit from the arrival of a true star. Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr can both score the ball, but they share similar inefficient playing styles with neither appearing to be a true number one option to lead a franchise. The only players who shot well percentage-wise this season were Keyon Martin Jr and Alperen Sengun. Neither are volume three-point shooters, which is something the Rockets desperately need. The 2022 number three overall pick, Jabari Smith, has the potential to be a good NBA player, but his skill set and limitations as a scorer will require Houston to pair him with a true playmaker to get the most out of him on a nightly basis.

It’s safe to assume Houston will get a top five selection this summer but that might not be enough on its own. For this offseason to be the start of a true turn around in Houston, they need to use some of their projected $72 million in cap space to land some difference making free agents. Even without a potential Harden reunion, the pathway to improvement through the draft and free agency is there for Houston. Should the Rockets turn things around, my biggest hope is that Stephen Silas isn’t fired immediately before or right as the team starts to turn a corner. The culture in Houston hasn’t been great but it’s hard to argue Silas has been given a lot to work with at any point. I guess I shouldn’t worry about that though since that’s not something we’ve seen happen in the NBA before, right…?

16. Charlotte Hornets

Whereas most teams in the running for the top picks this year more or less expected it, the Hornets entered this season hoping to take the step from a Play-in to a true Playoff team. That clearly didn’t happen. Losing Miles Bridges for the year left this team without a go-to-scoring option and making it worse, All-Star, LeMelo Ball, had to miss several stretches of the season dealing with injuries. Things have gotten so bad in Charlotte that MJ is finally calling it quits and is planning to sell his majority ownership stake in the club (if he hasn’t already by the time you are reading this).

Jordan certainly wasn’t a good owner and at no point did it ever seem like he enjoyed running the team. Even with that and of course acknowledging the insane amount of money he stands to make in a sale (bought the then Bobcats for $275 million in 2010 and will sell for at least $1.5 billion) I’m surprised he’s getting out now. His teams achieved next to nothing and after finally drafting their first All-Star since Kemba Walker and well-positioned for a chance to draft another, MJ is deciding to pull the ejector seat rather than undertake another rebuild. Perhaps all the losing was just too much for the ultimate competitor, but I’d argue no loss will sting worse than losing the chance to draft Victor Wembanyama should Charlotte land the top pick.

15. Orlando Magic

Of all the teams in this “pushing to get back into the Playoffs” tier, the Magic are the closest to being a Playoff team and were slightly better than their 34–48 record suggest. This team is young, but the lack of vets has given their young core the chance to log a lot of minutes together and that development is paying off (see their 3–1 record against the Celtics or the fact that 14 of their 34 total wins were on the road this season as proof). With young players on rookie-scale deals up and down the roster, Orlando is one of the best examples league-wide of how to execute a rebuild.

Step 1; Trading their best asset/most valuable player for draft capital and young players with upside. Sent Nikola Vucevic to the Bulls in 2021 which netted them Wendell Carter Jr, and two first rounds picks (Chicago’s 1st in 2021 and 2023)

Step 2; Turning first round lottery picks into productive players who can play together & fit the construction of the roster. 2022 #1 overall pick, Paolo Banchero, should win Rookie Of The Year, the Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs backcourt has potential, and with the pick they got back from Chicago they drafted Franz Wagner, who made 1st-team 2022 All-Rookie.

Step 3: Low-risk, high-reward gambles on young veteran players. Wendell Carter Jr, Markelle Fultz, and Bol Bol are all players under 25 who for varying reasons didn’t work out on their original teams but landed productive roles with this Magic team.

Orlando is a season away from returning to the postseason. Jamahl Mosley seems to have been a good coaching hire and with another lottery pick coming this summer plus the cap space to add veteran depth, there isn’t much to not like about this team’s future. With the odds of landing a top-five pick this summer in their favor it will be interesting to see which direction Orlando goes assuming Wembanyama, Henderson, and Miller are all off the board. How ever things shake out in the draft, the Magic should be fine. If their young core of Banchero, Carter Jr, Anthony, and Franz Wagner continues to improve, whoever they select will also be allowed time to develop and grow.

14. Detroit Pistons

No team will have better odds in the Wembanyama sweepstakes than the Pistons. Unlike the other teams tied for the highest possible odds at the top pick (Houston and San Antonio), Detroit already has what looks to be at least one future All-Star in Cade Cunningham, on their roster. Having only played 76 games through two seasons has made evaluating Cunningham harder but during stretches of his rookie season, it was clear he’s capable of All-Star-level-play and has just started to scratch the surface of his potential. With a young supporting core (Jalen Duren, 19, Jaden Ivey, 21, newly acquired James Wiseman, 21, Killian Hayes,21, Isiah Stewart, 22, and their old head, Marvin Bagley III, 24) the focus in Detroit, especially with Cade out, hasn’t been the W-L record but has been on youth development and establishing a culture.

Sticking with former Coach Of The Year, Dwayne Casey (now transitioning to a front office role in the offseason) and bringing in experienced veterans like Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, and Corey Joseph, tells me the Pistons have a long-term restoration plan beyond just drafting a bunch of young guys and hoping they figure things out on their own. The return of Cade in the 2023–24 season will mean the return of heighten expectations but should Cade return to play alongside an improving Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, and then a newly drafted Victor Wembanyama, we might be looking at a team expected to win the East by the time the 2028 season rolls around.

Tier 2: If these teams can keep their current core together, the playoff window can stay open another five seasons (teams ranked by likelihood of keeping the current core together)

13. Philadelphia 76ers

The Core: Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tyrese Maxey

If this core stays together, there’s not much else to say other than they’ll win a lot, Embiid eventually wins an MVP, and maybe they even win a title. But should Philly fail to at least make a Conference Finals, there are some interesting questions this front office could be faced with. Did those Houston rumors come from nowhere or could James Harden leave in free agency? Without the Playoff success to point to, how much longer will they keep Doc Rivers on as head coach? Can they find a sucker to trade either or both Tobias Harris and P.J. Tucker to (the duo are due a combined $51 million dollars in 2023–24)? What will the market for Georges Niang look like and what does it say about their team that they are in some fashion reliant on production from Georges Niang? All that potential uncertainty leads to the biggest question of all; will Embiid decide that “The Process” has failed and is ready for a fresh start elsewhere?

It’s easily forgotten how long Embiid has been with the team and just how bumpy his road in pursuit of a championship has been. It started with missing his first two seasons in the league due to injury. While Embiid got healthy, by design, the team did a historic amount of losing. As a reward for all that losing, the Sixers ended up with the #1 picks in back-to-back drafts. In a cruel twist of fate, they drafted not one, but two-point guards who would both end up forgetting how to shoot a basketball, completely lose their confidence, and needing to be traded. Also, somewhere in that timeline, former team President, Bryan Colangelo, was forced to quit amidst scandal involving leaked info via Twitter burner accounts. In the final act, Colangelo ends up letting his wife take the blame for it all in a last-ditch effort to save his job, a job, it should be noted, Colangelo only had because the NBA forced someone “respectable” to intervene in Philly and fix the tanking circus Sam Hinkie had created.

Since then, the Sixers have watched Toronto and Milwaukee win titles, Boston & Miami make Finals appearances, and are seeing teams like Cleveland, New York, and yes, even Brooklyn making leaps to join them in contender territory. Is it too soon to start speculating that a series of events exist where we could see Embiid forcing his way to Miami to reunite with a not quite over the hill Jimmy Butler? What about switching conferences and looking at what Sacramento has going on? Finally, I mentioned this one earlier but eventually the Clippers will grind Kawhi and PG into dust and will be back on the market for a big fish. I’m not ruling anything out when it comes to the NBA, and it would certainly be fun to watch an off-season’s worth of Embiid on trade-watch.

12. Miami Heat

The Core: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro

The biggest detriment to keeping this Heat core together is the age and money committed to its best player, Jimmy Butler. By leading Miami to a Finals (albeit in the bubble) and within a made three-pointer of a second appearance in three years, any Heat fan would say Butler has outperformed his contract and has been worth every dollar. Going forward, that analysis might get harder as Butler is set to make $52 million a year by the time he turns 36. It’s no secret Butler is a difficult personality playing for an organization with its own rigidities but winning cures all and recently, the Heat have done more winning than most any other franchise. But what happens when father time pulls up to South Beach, Butler’s production drops slightly, and he can’t carry the Heat through the Playoffs like in seasons past? Are Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro good enough to carry the torch and build a team around or will Miami need to explore trade options to avoid a Jimmy Butler fused implosion?

Since his contract inflates as he ages, I’m assuming Jimmy Butler won’t be traded. That leaves the Heat with two paths they can pursuit; either a) keep Adebayo and Herro hoping both players haven’t hit their respective ceilings or b) look to build a trade package around either/both Adebayo and Herro in exchange for a player to pair with Butler now while he’s still playing at a high level. If the Heat are smart, they realize it’s likely we’ve seen Bam’s offensive ceiling and that Tyler Herro isn’t a special NBA talent but is simply a capable two-guard closer on the spectrum to a 6th man than difference making starter. If Miami wants to get out of the East again, they’ll need to find a better running mate for Butler than Bam or Tyler. Trading one if not both of those two in a package for a bonafide star should be something Miami’s front office at least considers.

11. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Core: Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert

While I do find this core staying together more likely than say Philly’s or Miami’s, it’s certainly one of the more ill-fitting cores in the league. The reason this core stays together won’t be because it’s done a lot of winning but because these contracts have left the Timberwolves no choice. Edwards is on his rookie-eligible extension through 2024 and it’s likely he stays with Minnesota the following four seasons for his first big payday. KAT is locked in for big money (due $260 million between now and 2028) and since the T-Wolves reset the trade market to get Rudy Gobert, despite how much he has not worked out for them, they’re on the hook for his contract until at least the end of the 2024–2025 season.

To clarify, when I say this team won’t do a lot of winning, I mean specifically in the postseason as an Edwards-Towns-Gobert trio is good enough to win around 40 games a year and earn a spot in the Playoffs. However, for me to pick Minnesota to win a series, I need to see not only the continued evolution from Anthony Edwards but also proof that Karl-Anthony Towns isn’t just a good shooter who happens to be a 7-footer. The bigger problem, Rudy Gobert, is both physically and metaphorically in the way of the team’s development but is being paid like he’s their most valuable player.

The best hope for Minnesota is for someone to realize their future is Anthony Edwards and that all decisions going forward should be made with that in mind. Had the new ownership group realized this a year ago, they wouldn’t have hamstrung the franchise with the Gobert trade but since they can’t undo that mistake, the time will come when they consider trading Karl Anthony-Towns for draft capital and/or players that better compliment Edwards game. Will they get a singular player in return as good as Towns? Almost certainly not. But can I concoct some potential trade ideas that could make the Timberwolves a better team? I can try, and the front office should too.

10. New York Knicks

The Core: Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, R.J. Barrett

This Knicks core is a great example of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. At the start of this season, people questioned the Jalen Brunson signing, questioned if Julius Randle’s 2020–21 season was a fluke and if R.J. Barrett would live up to being the first Knicks rookie to sign his extension with the team since the 90s. Fast forward to the conclusion of the regular season and it’s fair to say Brunson has been one of the best Free Agent signings of 2022 and is one of the best point guards in the NBA. For the sake of argument, if we list Giannis at SF, Julius Randle is at worst the third best PF in the Eastern Conference. Finally, now properly a third option, Barrett is having the best year of his career (minus the three-point shooting) and will be a player who either continues getting a little better each year in NY or can be used in a trade package when another superstar hits the trade market.

The patience this Knicks front office has shown since the start of the CAA era, while unrecognizable for this franchise, is starting to pay off. The players complimenting this core, Mitchell Robinson (2nd round pick), Immanuel Quickley (25th overall pick), Quentin Grimes (25th overall pick), and Obi Toppin (8th overall pick), is a testament to not just improved scouting but also player development. And the reasonably priced free agents or players they’ve added through smart trades, Josh Hart and Isaiah Hartenstein, are the exact type of players that bolster a lineup without financially hindering the team’s future.

The largest threat to breaking up this core is if the Knicks go all in on their pursuit of a superstar. Between now and the summer of 2025, the Knicks must decide how invested they are in a Brunson, Randle one-two punch in an Eastern Conference with combinations like Giannis/Middleton, Tatum/Brown, Embiid/Harden, Mitchell/Mobley, and Butler/Adebayo. I know I just praised this regimes patience and level-headed approach to both the free agent and trade markets, but the goal when Leon Rose took over as team president was to make the Knicks an attractive destination for superstars. The first half of plan is complete. As for the second half and the actual landing of a superstar, expect New York to be heavy in trade talks leading into these next few season’s trade deadline’s. Look for big names like Devin Booker, Paul George, or even Zion Williamson (what do those names have in common I wonder) to be linked with possible moves/trades to NY in the not so distant future.

9. Sacramento Kings

The Core: De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Kevin Huerter

Barring a superstar demanding his way to Sacramento, this current Kings’ core, who has brought Sacramento back to the playoffs for the first time since 2006, won’t be breaking up anytime soon. While the Tyrese Haliburton trade seemed questionable, the Kings look like absolute geniuses for committing to De’Aaron Fox and pairing him with an All-Star in Domantas Sabonis, that better suits his style of play. The Kings were a historically great offense this season and the crowd at The Golden Center is starting to feel like the ARCO Arena crowds of the late 90’s early 2000s (substitute the cowbells for “lighting the beam”). Headed into this season, Sacramento fans would have been happy simply making the playoffs. The fact that the Kings will be hosting a first-round Playoff series is a pleasant surprise and should encourage their fans going forward.

Not including their core three, the Kings have just six players under contract for next season and only three of those six players (Malik Monk, Davion Mitchell, and Keegan Murray) are regulars in the rotation. Free agency this summer is going to be very important for a team in need of depth and defensive improvement. While Sabonis can do a lot of “big man things” for this team, getting some additional length to play alongside of or behind him in lineups should also be a priority.

Short of botching an upcoming Sabonis extension, I don’t see how Sacramento won’t have a successful offseason and be right back in the playoffs next year. Mike Brown is the clear runaway winner for Coach of The Year, Fox and Sabonis looked poised to be All-Stars for seasons to come and if Huerter and the rest of the supporting cast improves, because of their youth, the Kings have as wide open a playoff window as any other Western Conference team.

Tier 1: These teams have at least one player that should be around in five years and when healthy, gives his team a chance to win a playoff series every season.

8. New Orleans Pelicans

The Player: Zion Williamson

The boom or bust nature of Zion Williamson’s tenure as a Pelicans will ultimately be what helps defines his legacy. When healthy, he’s been one of the most exciting and unstoppable players the NBA has ever seen. By the numbers, Zion is as dominant a paint player as there’s ever been and simply by being on the court, his teammates jobs are made that much easier. Before his injury, the Pelicans were the top seed out West and on pace to compete for a title. In Zion’s absence, The Pelicans completely dropped out of the Playoff picture and will be forced to answer questions all offseason not only about the health of Zion, but the direction of this roster going forward.

Starting with the Anthony Davis trade, Team President, David Griffin, has done a very good job reconstructing this roster. The biggest question going forward is simple; can Zion Williamson stay healthy long enough to make a postseason appearance, let alone a deep run? Next year seems like this roster’s last chance to break through because that CJ McCollum contract only gets worse with time and Brandon Ingram is a free agent in 2025. The Pels are a “win-now” roster but are built around a franchise player they must afford every bit of patience to. The Pelicans and Zion need to see eye-to-eye on things going forward to avoid the potential of him “subtly” asking his way out of New Orleans, citing a distrust in the team’s medical approach as the reason why. Maybe I’m creating a story where there isn’t one and the Pelicans will host a bunch of playoff games over the next five years, but for a career it feels like we’ve barely seen take off, Zion already seems to have arrived at a make-or-break moment.

7. Dallas Mavericks

The Player: Luka Doncic

Before this season, it seemed like a safe bet to say Luka Doncic would never miss a postseason. He elevated a below average Dallas roster to the Playoffs as a rookie, so every year after that is expected to be another step closer to winning a title. After one of the most mismanaged regular seasons in recent memory, the Mavericks are further away from a title than they’ve been at any point in the Luka era. Because his team won the 2011 title, Mark Cuban’s failure to surround the last generational superstar, Dirk Nowitzki, with better rosters is under discussed. This time around, Cuban is ensuring his failure will be more memorable. For those keeping track, the Mavericks have now traded two first-round picks to the Knicks for Kristaps Porzingis, turned around and traded Porzingis to the Wizards for Spencer Dinwiddie, then after losing Jalen Brunson to the Knicks in free agency, traded Spencer Dinwiddie and one of their best defenders, Dorian Finney Smith, to The Nets in exchange for the least reliable star in the league, pending 2023 unrestricted free agent, Kyrie Irving.

The net result of all that; this season went so poorly that Dallas decided their best option was to intentionally miss the postseason in an attempt to keep their 2023 1st-round pick (which conveys to New York if it falls outside the top 10). Whether it was his fault or not, upon Kyrie’s arrival, the team started falling down the standings. About two weeks into Kyrie’s Mavericks tenure, reports that Luka was “not happy like he used to be” surfaced and again, Kyrie’s fault or not, the timing of these two things was rather unfortunate for a player whose reputation as disruptive, already proceeds him. In an NBA 2K game, a Luka/Kyrie backcourt would be unstoppable. In real life, it didn’t produce much winning, their roster going into next season is shaky at best, and now it’s unclear whether Kyrie re-signs in Dallas or if Dallas should want him to. If forced to find the silver lining, if the Mavericks can draft a top-10 talent this summer, it’s probably the best chance they’ll have to pair some young difference making talent with their currently 24-year-old perennial MVP candidate. The Mavericks have long been viewed as a well-run organization, in large part because Dirk is one of the greatest players in NBA history. I believe Luka will ultimately join Dirk in that NBA 50 club, but if the Mavericks don’t improve this roster and fast, he’ll be doing it wearing a different team’s jersey.

6. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Player: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

I realize the Thunder technically don’t qualify for this tier considering despite his career year and almost winning the scoring title, SGA has yet to lead the Thunder to the postseason. The asterisk I used to justify OKC getting Tier 1 placement is the absence of the 2022 number two overall pick, Chet Holmgren. Though we haven’t seen Holmgren play a single NBA minute, if he’s anything close to what we’re projecting for his career, especially as a rim-protector, the Thunder will be a playoff team next year and a threat to win a series for sure.

Now that SGA has grown into a full-blown All-Star/All-NBA player, the other young Thunder players like Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, and Kenrich Williams are developing well in their respective roles. Dropping Holmgren and another lottery pick into their rotation should elevate this team from Play-in territory to firmly seeded in The Playoffs. We’ve seen the Kings and Grizzlies arrive at a place where they’re battling for home court out West. As rosters like the Lakers, Clippers, Suns and Warriors start to age out, the Thunder will have opportunities in the Playoffs for SGA to truly become a household name.

5. Memphis Grizzlies

The Player: Ja Morant

Rooting for Ja Morant and this Grizzlies team should be nothing but fun. Unfortunately, some things that happened this year off the court took us away from that fun and forced us to have conversations not at all about basketball. Saving the off-court stuff for another day, from a basketball perspective, the Grizzlies finished second in the West and Morant had one of the best seasons of his young career. Despite those achievements, most of the oddsmakers have Memphis somewhere around the eight overall favorite to win the 2023 title and it doesn’t feel like the rest of the contenders looks at the Grizzlies as a serious threat.

Memphis doesn’t have a talent problem, but it does seem to have a chemistry problem which sometimes can be even tougher to remedy. Unless Memphis wins the title, this roster will look vastly different at the start of next season. Dillion Brooks seems to fancy himself “the voice of the Grizzlies”, but I would argue he is not the leader this Memphis team needs right now. Since Desmond Bane is due to be paid, I doubt Brooks returns as a free agent this summer, leaving Memphis in need of help on the perimeter both offensively and defensively. They won’t have much cap space to play with in the offseason, but also they don’t need to take “big swings” to improve within the margins. Defensively, Jaren Jackson (potential DPTOY) helps erase a lot of the team’s mistakes, so I imagine the Grizzlies will priorities scoring this summer. Some players Memphis could potentially afford to target are names like Alec Burks, Torrey Craig, or Will Barton. Those wouldn’t be the splashiest signings of the summer but adding shooting and/or additional shot creators to this roster would make Morant’s job that much easier.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Player: Donovan Mitchell

In an offseason filled with all types of player movement, no team landed a more important player than the Cavilers trading for Donovan Mitchell. Bringing Mitchell to Cleveland represents a level of legitimacy this franchise has lacked the past five seasons. The last time a Cavs team made The Playoffs without LeBron James was 1998, so by simply leading the Cavs back to the postseason, Mitchell’s first season was a huge success. I might be higher on Mitchell than some, but I found it almost laughable that it cost Cleveland less to trade for him than it cost Minnesota to trade for Rudy Gobert.

Mainly due to their youth, more specifically the rookie-scale deal of Evan Mobley, The Cavs are in prime position to be the next team to run the East. If the Cavs are smart, they will make trading Jarrett Allen this summer a top priority. He’s an upper-echelon rim protector and defender at his position and his $20 million a year salary doesn’t raise a penny between now and 2026, making him one of the most team-friendly contracts in the league. Having said that, Evan Mobley is clearly the future of the franchise and is already the better player. He and Allen are too redundant from a skillset standpoint for a team that needs more size and shooting on the perimeter. Cleveland will have some space in free agency but also if they can flip Allen for someone like OG Anunoby (Raptors), Norman Powell (Clippers), or Tim Hardaway Jr. (Mavericks), it would help Cleveland balance out an offense that is at times overly reliant on the scoring production from two sub 6'5 guards.

3. Boston Celtics

The Player: Jason Tatum

You know your franchise is in a good place when three different coaches can come in and win 50 plus games. In large part, all three coaches can thank Jayson Tatum for that continued success. At just 25-years-old, Tatum has made yearly Conference Finals appearances something I’m sure Boston fans already take for granted. Because Tatum’s rookie season ended in an ECF Game 7 versus LeBron and the Cavs, the expectations every year since have been that of a perennial championship contender. There are only so many players in league history that at 25 and younger were expected to lead their team to a title, and Tatum is certainly a name on that list.

Tatum starting his playoff journey at such a young age created the perception that he’s a certified superstar in the prime of his career. Still at the young age of just 25 however, it’s likely there’s another level we will see Tatum reach and if Boston is patient enough to realize this, I think it’s only a matter of time before they’re raising banner number 18. If 28 is the magic age for when most NBA players truly hit both their mental and physical peaks, we’re likely talking about one of the top three players in the league currently on a team with another All-NBA candidate in Jaylen Brown. Outside of Giannis in Milwaukee, I don’t think any other single player out East gives his team a better chance to compete for a title every season than Jayson Tatum.

2. Milwaukee Bucks

The Player: Giannis Antetokoumpo

Milwaukee Bucks fans should already be happy beyond their wildest dreams. Giannis has been discussed amongst the league’s best players for over half a decade and with one title under his belt before the age of 28, it seems like only a matter of time before he and the Bucks are back in The Finals competing for a second one. For better or worse, with Giannis in his prime, every season that doesn’t end in a trip to the Finals is likely to be viewed as a letdown. Despite bringing Milwaukee their first title since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, if Giannis were to end his career and the Bucks only got the one ring, a segment of the fanbase would consider that an underachievement. To me however, the ultimate legacy of Giannis as a Buck will be determined by this front office’s ability to retool a contending roster that both age and the salary cap are threatening to close the window on.

The biggest question for Milwaukee this offseason revolves around re-signing Brooke Lopez at a reasonable cost as well as the player-option on Khris Middleton’s contract (he can opt into a $40.3 million next year with Milwaukee). My guess is Middleton will want to hear other offers in free agency. Milwaukee should be prepared for him to walk and would be wise to avoid the temptation to overpay him because he was a vital part of the 2021 title. Smart teams pay players for what they will do going forward, not what they’ve done. I could see Milwaukee prioritizing bringing back Brooke Lopez to a reasonable short-term deal (something in the $20 million a year range over two years maybe…) but losing Middleton, even if it’s financial prudent to do so, would leave the Bucks without many options for a replacement in this summer’s free agent class. Potential targets like Bruce Brown, Jordan Clarkson, or Caris LeVert may initially feel like talent downgrades from Middleton but if Milwaukee can find a way to keep enough talent (and outside shooting) around Giannis while avoiding bad contracts for aging players, they should be at least the co-favorites to win the East for another three to five years.

1. Denver Nuggets

The Player: Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic is an unprecedented historically great player who in the eyes of many, might be forced to win a championship this season to justify a third straight league MVP trophy. Even though MVP is a regular season award, we all know the “MVP Redistribution Program” leaps into action anytime a former MVP, let alone back-to-back MVP, is perceived to be a postseason disappointment. “Not getting it done in The Playoffs last season” will be a real reason some voters don’t select Jokic for MVP this year. Whether Jokic joins Larry Bird as a three-peat MVP winner or not, in my eyes, Jokic is already a superior individual player and all that remains to be seen is how winning a championship or two will influence his place amongst the all-time greats. Jokic’s ability to do everything on a basketball court has no historical comp with any one player and is best described as an amalgamation of skills from some of the game’s all-time greats.

Size: His bio page says 6’11, 285 lbs., which I think is being generous. LeBron is said to play weighing anywhere between 260–270 so you’ll have a hard time convincing me Jokic is several inches taller and only slightly heavier. At closer to 7 feet and 300 pounds, Jokic’s body comp would be closer to a young Shaq or fellow European, Arvydas Sabonis.

Court Vision/IQ: He sees the court better than any player in NBA history not named Magic or LeBron. My historical comp would be someone you had to be there to see and appreciate and it’s one Jason “White Chocolate” Williams. Jokic’s willingness to attempt any pass, any time, from any angle, is how I imagine Williams would have looked if he was a seven footer. It’s obvious how much fun his teammates have playing with such a gifted passer and as a bonus, I’d argue he is the most selfless superstar in NBA history.

Shooting/Touch: His touch around the rim is second to none. He’s got Hakeem’s array of post moves with the range and unorthodox shooting ability of Bird or Nowitzki, all paired with touch and fundimentals of Tim Duncan.

Jokic might be as close to a perfect basketball player as we’ve ever seen. For anyone out there pointing to his lack of explosiveness as an undesirable trait, because he barely needs to jump to dominate a game, he’s less likely to get injured and I think his longevity will mirror that of Duncan. Duncan was so effectively great for so long; the Spurs were able to build three different versions of a championship roster around him. I imagine Jokic will be dominate for so long that by 2034, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. will all be elsewhere while Jokic remains the centerpiece of another Denver title run.