As you’ve read in the news, Orleans and Jefferson are doing better.

Orleans: cases are down by almost half as compared to three weeks ago, and positivity (% of test that are positive) has continued to fall.

Putting this in perspective, average daily cases hit a low of about 20 in early June, went up to about 100 in mid July, and averaged 55 this week.

Jefferson: Cases are down about 20% over the past three weeks, while testing has increased by more than a third. On a test-adjusted basis, Jefferson is down about 40%, which is significant progress.

However…


Just a quick update with some good news.

Over the past few days, Orleans data has shifted for the better.

Case counts over the past week are down 16% while the number of tests is up by 21%. The chart below gives 7 day average data for each of the past four weeks.

The changes this week as compared to last week are:


The Numbers may be different than you think.

Hi Everyone.

The media has been full of very scary numbers over the past week. Nationally there were record high levels of cases reported . Meanwhile, Louisiana reported 6300 cases over two days and now has the Nation’s second highest rate of new cases per capita.

But, as readers of this blog know, case numbers can be misleading. When adjusted for the number of reported tests, it appears that the resurgence of Covid may have already peaked Nationally and in Louisiana,

First, one big caution: due to delays in test reporting, the…


Hello everyone,

[Just in: The data below is through Friday. Saturday’s data was just released with 122 new cases in Orleans which brings the 4 day average up to 98 cases per day].

Orleans: This past week, July 4 -10, Orleans averaged 64 cases per day which was a 27% increase over the prior week. Most of that increase occurred in the past 3 days which have averaged 90 cases per day .

Comparing the same three days this week to last week, there were 50% more confirmed cases on 9% fewer tests. …


Hi Everyone,

Two weeks ago, Louisiana’s data was distorted by 1200+ of old cases reported on Saturday, and then 1,666 duplicate cases removed the following Thursday. Today we finally have a full week of usable data.

Louisiana cases are up over 100% this past week as compared to two weeks ago while testing is up less than 50%. Putting it all together, Louisiana had a 40% increase in cases that is not explained by increased testing.

Louisiana’s seven day average is 19 cases per 100,000 population. …


National update! New data and where LA stands

Hey everyone, I hope you are having a good weekend.

The data has shifted quickly in the past few days, and we can now get a clearer picture of what has happened as states reopened.

First, let me say that there are human and economic cost to closures and restrictions. We, as a nation, are in a balancing act. On the one hand, we can’t just close down until there is an effective vaccine. On the other, we can’t let COVID get out of control.

As you’ve probably read in the media…


Orleans cases are down, Jefferson holding steady, LA rising.

Hi Everyone.

Highlights:

  • New Orleans cases are down 30% over past two weeks to an average of 15 cases per day.
  • Jefferson has bounced around a bit, but is holding steady at roughly 40 cases per day.
  • Cases in the rest Louisiana are increasing; list of parishes with large % increases below.
  • Hospitalizations in Louisiana are still falling, but will start to increase soon if reported cases keep rising.
  • Schools start up again in about 10 weeks. …

May 30 Update

Hi everyone, I hope you are having a great weekend.

New Orleans, Jefferson, and Louisiana daily cases are virtually unchanged over the past couple of weeks. New Orleans is holding steady at about 20 per day and Jefferson at 40. Louisiana’s case data was impacted last week by two large sets of new lab results dating back to March, but statewide cases are now running a bit under 400 per day which is a slight improvement from two weeks ago.

Case data can be distorted by changes in the availability of testing. Looking at both cases and…


Hello Everyone,

Not a lot has changed since the email update of May 12th.

New Cases:

New Orleans and Jefferson have plateaued in new cases per day, with a seven day average of roughly 20 for N.O. and 40 for Jeff. Comparing this to the peak in new cases during the week March 30 to April 6, New Orleans is down 96% and Jefferson is down 91%.

The rest of LA is seeing a modest increase in cases. Part of this is due to a large number of old test results coming in all at once for East Baton Rouge…


April 27 Update

This chart tells the story. It is the number of new cases each week for the past four weeks.

The number of new cases is our best measure of how we are doing at this time.

New Orleans cases are down 93% as compared to three weeks ago and Jefferson are down by 87%. This past week, New Orleans averaged about 30 cases per day and Jefferson about 50.

For New Orleans that works out to about 75 cases per one million population which is less than the national average of about 90.

For math folks, a crude calculation of R is .60 for New Orleans and Jefferson combined and .76 for Louisiana. The site rt.live has a far more sophisticated calculation at the state level which currently has Louisiana at an R of .79

STEPHEN ROSENTHAL

Retired founder and CEO of Strategic Comp, and a numbers guy.

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