Trump’s New Pivot: Takeover or Destroy the RNC
I don’t believe Trump ever honestly expected to be successful as a candidate for President.
I do believe however that, once it became clear to him that there were tens of millions of American who would vote for him, he began to think he had a shot.
But that’s all changed now, and Trump has pivoted again. And this pivot is not towards those he would like to persuade, but towards the party that got him where he is today.
Here’s what I believe is going on now inside Trump’s head:
- He knows now he can’t win this election
- He also knows that the party which supported him, like the host-body that supports a deadly virus, is so weakened with internal strife that he can either take it over entirely, or kill it dead.
- He figures that, once the election is over, and the GOP has lost the White House again, he will have at his disposal 25%, maybe a full third, of registered Republicans, angry and fuming at the RNC which they will blame for Trump’s loss…an idea Trump has already begun to push by attacking Paul Ryan.
To start Trump will use his massive support within the party grassroots to make a move on the RNC itself. He and his fellow travelers inside and outside the RNC will attempt a purge of the party, targeting those they see as weak, collaborators with (fill in the name of the enemy de jour ) and those who openly criticized Trump during the run up to the election.
The so-called “Freedom Caucus” in the House, already a nest of crazies, will likely grab the Trump insurgency and run with it, beginning by trying to push Paul Ryan out as their Speaker. And they might just succeed..depending on how many of these Tea Party types survive in November. Just how successful the Trumpites will be in gaining full control of the RNC is hard to predict. It could go two ways:
- Trump and his followers are successful in taking over the RNC, and begin filling its ranks with Trump true believers. Old guard Republicans flee the RNC and try to set up a rump RNC, hoping that the remaining two thirds of registered Republicans will flock to their side. Should that happen we would see two Republican parties, not one, squaring off against each other in Congress and in state races around the country, each trying to get their candidates through already tough primaries. Such a situation would amount to the formation of a de facto third party, a conservative one. Which one of the two is the “third party” — the “spoiler” party? It’ll depend on whom you ask. They will fight over that too.
- If his attempt to take over the RNC fail, Trump will try to take his 25%-30% of Republican voters away and form an official third party. If successful, even if only somewhat successful, this would further exasperate the growing demographic hemorrhaging the GOP is facing as minorities become a majority in America. The GOP already struggles in many sections of the country to get enough votes for its candidates as Hispanic voters crowd the voter rolls. In California it’s now almost impossible for a Republican to win a race, and bleeding off a quarter of their original base will effectively finish Republicans as an viable party, not just in California, but nationwide.
There has already been indicators that, after the election, Trump intends to form his own Fox-style news network, with him at its head and run by disgraced former Fox head, Roger Ailes. Such a network would be the media center from which Trump could command his “Brownshirt” army of indefatigable and unswayable supporters. And, what aspiring dictator ever lived in a time when electronic communications were a more potent weapon than today?
Of course none of this is what most sane folks, in either party, want. It’s certainly not what the nation or world needs right now either — quite the opposite. But modern history brims with such moments, when civic order decays, institutions seem paralyzed by deadwood and dereliction, and the masses turn on them, and one another.
It’s just such times that demagogues emerge …. and often prosper. So, don’t expect Donald Trump, or his minions, to disappear any time soon.
“When small men begin to cast big shadows, it means that the sun is about to set.” -Lin Yutang