Two major miscalculations that led to the mess that is Brexit

David Cameron went into the general election before last, hoping to win. Although his party won the most parliamentary seats, he was well short of an absolute majority, so he went into a coalition with the Lib-Dems. To many people’s surprise, this actually worked out reasonably. There were lots of compromises and many people were disappointed by some aspects, but it worked. Neither party was able to keep many of their manifesto promises, but it worked.

The polls leading up to the following election were predicting a similar outcome. David Cameron included a promised in-out referendum in his manifesto, but it was something he would happily ditch once in another coalition, and he needed to keep the support of the Tory eurosceptics. Once again, we were surprised; the polls got it badly wrong and he won an outright victory.

Whether Cameron really wanted the referendum is a moot point; I think he just miscalculated, but the vociferous eurosceptics, particularly Nigel Farage, made sure he kept to his manifesto promise. At that stage, the odds were heavily in favour of the referendum keeping the UK in the EU.

Boris Johnson was educated in Eton and Oxford, home of great debating societies. He started as a journalist. He learnt to tell a good story. Like a lawyer making the best case for a client, he did not have to believe the line he was arguing, he just had to argue well enough to win his case. With the odds so clearly pointing to a ‘remain’ outcome, he calculated that if he backed the ‘leave’ campaign, they would still lose but he would be respected by both sides of the Tory party. Cameron had already declared he would not be standing for a third term as prime minister. Boris Johnson would be in a strong position to succeed him.

The deceit perpetrated by the leave campaign, that by voting leave we would regain democratic control of our country (which we never lost), save £360 million a week which we could spend on the NHS (now denied), and control immigration (which adds more income from tax than it costs, without which the NHS and many other services would fall apart, and which includes huge numbers of non-EU citizens which we have always been able to control) was believed by enough people for the bookies and pollsters to be surprised when the result was announced.

Both men were hoist by their own petard; Cameron may never have thought he would have to have a referendum, and Johnson may never have thought he would win. Wrong and wrong.

So Cameron resigns, leaving Johnson to stand for leadership of a divided Tory party. If he becomes leader, as seems highly likely, it will be his task to preside over the painful and laborious task of extricating the UK from its highly favourable position of being a major player in a major international body. The UK will become less influential, foreign investment will decline, its economy will falter. The £360 million was offset by significant returns from the EU. It was a tiny proportion of our GDP. The economic downturn will cost us far far more than this sum. Leaders in the USA, China and Japan have all expressed concern over the global economic impact, not to mention the disastrous effects already felt by the stock markets in Europe. Scotland, and possibly Northern Ireland, will justifiably seek independence. The Scottish referendum on staying in the UK was close, and probably only turned at the last stages by promises from Westminster which have not been kept. The Scots overwhelming voted to stay in Europe. The UK faces the prospect of breaking up. There will almost certainly be moves for similar referenda in other European countries, which could lead to the whole EU unraveling.

All because two men with political ambitions made two miscalculations of the outcome of votes.