A May day? Will the PM seek a General Election mandate

Summer holidays.

Is there a better time to clear your head of detritus, restore some vital energy and make clear-minded decisions?

Next week the Prime Minster will return to work after a two week walking holiday in Switzerland. No small test of her statecraft awaits her.

Two new offices of state still need to be established and resourced, pre-Article 50 preparations finalised, new trade deal talks initiated, a NHS funding crisis averted, expectations of new policy focus on the working class and social mobility honoured, an industrial strategy developed and something about grammar schools….

All of this with a Parliamentary majority of 12.

During those Alpine walks with husband Philip, I wonder, did she muse on how much easier this might all be with a bigger majority and a fresh mandate? That the remnant pushback against Brexit coming from some could be quashed for good during a election campaign? How about the emboldening impact a General Election mandate would have on her bargaining hand going into terse EU negotiations?

Then there is the state of Labour embroiled in a baleful, embarrassing leadership contest and now near- inevitable split. Add UKIP’s predictable summer meltdown into the mix and you do have to wonder if the temptation might become impossible to resist.

My hunch remains she will go for it next March/April. That she will use it to set out terms for an Article 50 invocation and seek a popular mandate in General Election in support of them. She would be going into this election against the most divided Opposition in modern Parliamentary history (incidentally, I have no idea how Labour might even contemplate prepare for such an General Election given the membership/PLP dichotomy)

In the months ahead a policy programme can he honed that builds on her early pronouncements and targets the new millions of ‘Leave’ voters in costal towns, the North East and across Yorkshire and Humberside.

Then looking at recent gilt yields that are bound to flatter UK’s public finances and cushion any further Brexit economic impact I’d allow for some fiscal injections to pump-prime demand. Don’t be surprised if May has some little Keynesian flourishes along the way.

Prepare for a reprise of the Tory ‘squeeze operation’ that done for the Lib Democrats last year this time laser-focused in on ‘old’ Labour and recent UKIP convert voters to deliver a handsome 80+ seat majority.

Sure she may decide that a General Election is an unwarranted distraction that it is at odds with her no-nonsense approach to governance and that repealing the Fixed Term Parliament Act is unedifying.

A month from now we’ll know, one way or the other.