A New Tory Epoch?

The consequences of two decisions, taken three years apart, one hard-headed, the other sentimental, has transformed the present and future political landscape of Britain. Had neither been made David Cameron would probably now be leading his second coalition government and Yvette Cooper’s Labour Party be stolidly rebuilding her party’s shattered credibility.

But enough of alternate history.

Cameron chose Lynton Crosby to direct his General Election campaign, a handful of Labour MPs at the eleventh hour, invited Jeremy Corbyn to contest their leadership election, and the rest is history.

Cameron nine months on from composing a resignation letter may now be about to prove Enoch Powell most famous dictum right. Although widely quoted as: ‘all political careers end in failure’ what Powell actually wrote in his biography of Joseph Chamberlain was:

“All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs.”

It seems Cameron’s ‘happy juncture’ will occur some time in the 24 months after he has secured a third referendum this summer.

Not only is Cameron likely to be the first Prime Minister since Wilson to leave at a time of his choosing — and the circumstances surrounding Wilson’s were far more precipitous — but he will do so at a time of historic opportunity for his party.

Unless the British public develop an abrupt, improbable desire for a socialist revolution, the Conservative Party can confidently anticipate a decade or more in power.

The fundamental challenge for all upcoming Conservative leadership contenders, is what to do with this newfound power.

Surely the best possible response is to address head-on what remain the deep strategic weaknesses, the party’s patchy national and demographic appeal. Confronted by a feeble opposition, it would be all too easy to become complacent, but it would maddening if any potential new leader failed to exploit this moment, given what could be achieved if the party engages candidly and imaginatively with its shortcomings.

Despite last May’s emphatic win, the Conservatives still trailed Labour among under 45s, in the North and London and — despite making good progress — among ethnic minorities. The popular support for the junior doctors’ strike and the backlash against the Google tax deal reinforce the NHS and proximity to big business as enduring Tory vulnerabilities.

Since the start of the year Cameron has unleashed a flurry of wide ranging social policy announcements covering race discrimination in the criminal justice system and universities , gender pay gaps, early years parental support, anti-extremism, prison reform and mental health. Before Easter, each will be integrated into a hugely ambitious Life Chances strategy — a communion of social interventionism and Conservatism — that has the heft of a Prime Ministerial legacy about it. Every week new traditionally left leaning NGOs — MIND, the Howard League for Penal Reform — are being c0-opted to support Cameron’s new policies.

The Chancellor with his track record of counterfactual policy making — Northern Powerhouse, living wage — is now engaging intently with the Conservatives’ ‘cliff edge’ problem by exploring ideas to attract younger voters. Boris before long will, no doubt, be doing likewise.

As Labour’s appeal narrows to a hard core of metropolitan middle classes, younger voters and a diminishing cohort of public sector workers. so the potential for the Conservatives to patiently cultivate economic, social and cultural alliances to secure longer term electoral dominance grows.

Already the most astute thinkers on the left, notably Ken Spours, author of last years The Osborne Supremacy, see all of this as a mortal threat to Labour and the left, even going as far as invoking one of their own Marxist icons, Gramsci, as an influence on Cameron and Osborne.

It is of course too early and hubristic to talk of a new hegemony but the Tories must now have the chance to create one. Labour is not on the pitch, they are not even on the sidelines. Last year’s election victory was a spectacular vindication of the Conservatives ability to mobilise their base to turn out and deliver sufficient swing voters. Cameron’s ‘Life Chances’ legacy and Osborne’s rumination both rail against Crosby’s ‘barnacles off the boat’ electioneering dictum, but it does suggest that that they both see this moment for what it surely is, a time to both complete the modernisation project they started, and the heralding of an era of Tory domination.