Trump PA Poll Update: The Donald is Collapsing in the Polls
With both conventions now behind us, it seems like a good time for a Trump PA poll update. When I last looked at Trump’s chances in Pennsylvania, it seemed pretty clear that turning the state red was going to be an uphill battle. The combination of a bad news cycle for Hillary Clinton (re: her emails) and a convention bounce for Donald Trump put my conclusion in a little bit of doubt as recently as last week. But now things have settled down.
In fact, more than just settling down, the polls have swung strongly in the other direction. It seems as though Clinton may be in even stronger shape in Pennsylvania than I thought a few weeks ago. Trump’s weakening poll numbers come amid a convention bounce for Clinton that has so far showed more magnitude and staying power than did Trump’s.
The addition of Trump’s spat with Khizr Khan, father of a fallen Muslin soldier, has only added to Trump’s troubles. Clinton’s numbers have continued to climb throughout the week, suggesting that there is more in play than just the convention. It appears that voters are finally turning on Trump. For once, widespread outrage at his outlandish comments seems to be hurting him.
Clinton has opened up a massive national lead, with the latest McClatchy/Marist poll showing the former Secretary State up fifteen points over the Republican nominee. The average over the last week is somewhat less at roughly +7 for Clinton. That should provide little comfort to Trump, however, as Clinton’s most favorable polls have come in the last few days. If these the trend of these new polls hold, Trump could find his deficit near double digits in the averages by the middle of next week.
Swing state polling hasn’t been much kinder to Trump. He has coughed up slight leads in Florida and North Carolina, and seen massive gaps open up in supposedly battleground states like New Hampshire and Virginia. Pennsylvania has followed the same trajectory.
There were a few moments before and during the Republican National Convention where I found myself sweating my own prediction a little bit. Trump had finally had a poll that showed him in the lead in Pennsylvania in mid July and Clinton’s numbers were shrinking across the board. That anxiety didn’t last long. Three polls released after the RNC have confirmed that Clinton’s lead is secure. It may even be growing. The most recent Trump PA poll has him down by 11. The average at RealClearPolitics shows an eight point edge for Clinton.
Trump’s poor polling numbers are bad news for incumbent Senator Pat Toomey as he squares off with Democratic challenger Katie McGinty. Polling is showing a close race so far, but Republicans are worried Trump may pull down the numbers of down ballot candidates like Toomey. In the coming weeks and months, look for Toomey to distance himself from Trump if the latter’s poll numbers continue to be uninspiring.
The usual caveats apply. ‘There’s still a lot of time’. ‘Anything can happen’. ‘The pundits have predicted Trump’s downfall before’. Still, its hard to look at Trump’s position in PA and across the nation and spin it in a positive way for his candidacy. Trump is in trouble and Pennsylvania is likely a must win state. He’s going to need a major shift soon or things could start to get ugly. Trump has been offensive, boorish, and petty even when winning. I would hate to see what comes out of his mouth if it looks like he is heading toward a crushing defeat in November.
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