The Iraq Crisis 2003 — A “What If” Story

This is clearly a work of fiction and I write it only because I am genuinely concerned about the emphasis Chilcot has given to the need for political challenge of Intelligence before making decisions about the use of armed forces.

I hope the story makes the point.

15th September 2002 Jeremy Corbyn the British Prime Minister was sat on the settee in his private office alongside his Deputy, George Galloway. The two armchairs were filled by his longstanding Chancellor, John McDonald, and his Director of Communications, Seamus Milne. Seamus had been his right hand man ever since he had won the leadership in 1994 beating the right wing candidate Tony Blair. He had won on a programme of renationalisation, True Labour, a reaction to the programme of extensive privatisation being led by Margaret Thatcher who herself had survived a leadership challenge in 1990. The privatisation of the Royal Mail the last straw for most except the extremes of the Tory Party right wing.

The four men were in a dilemma. They were discussing the latest report from the Joint Intelligence Committee that had some unpleasant and unhelpful judgements and they needed to deal with it.

When they had gained power True Labour had promised a new ethical foreign policy best exemplified by the commitment in their manifesto to re-establish the Palestinian State. This had led to vastly improved relationships with the Arab world and Russia with the predictable breaking of the “special relationship” with the USA. Relationships with Iraq in particular were very warm building on George’s visit to Saddam Hussein in 1994.

Since the terrorist attack on the World Trade Centre, just one year before, the USA had been much more aggressive with George Bush’s State of the Union Speech earlier in the year identifying his “axis of evil” made up of three states North Korea, Iran and Iraq. Corbyn could not abide Bush’s overblown assertions that these states were sponsoring terror and seeking weapons of mass destruction. What’s more he now wants the UN Inspectors to go back into Iraq made all the worse in that it was Blair’s idea, Blair that right wing serial rebel, now isolated on the back benches, aided and abetted by his old friend Alistair Campbell in his regular column in the Telegraph.

Bush has reserved his worst and most trenchant invective for the UK’s new ally Iraq, claiming that they had reinstated their chemical and biological weapons programme. Seamus was convinced that Bush just wanted to finish of his Dad’s work. The Foreign Office, under Hilary Benn, is getting more hawkish agreeing with Bush. Corbyn moaned, “his father would spin in his grave.”

Now there is the JIC Assessment with its first and foremost judgement that Iraq has both chemical and biological weapons and that they have agents in London who can release within 45 minutes of being told. Corbyn’s immediate reaction was that there couldn’t be another war “after all I have made opposing violence and war the whole purpose of my life.”

George was apoplectic “we know this is untrue because Tariq told me when I visited him last year, and as you know I told him that we would be with him, whatever.”

Seamus was very clear and as was usual at difficult times took charge, “we need to desex this dossier if we are to stop this war, leave it to me, I will challenge the spooks on every word in this dodgy dossier.”

Two days later the men meet again Seamus is cock a hoop. A source in the Defence Intelligence Service, no friends of MI6, had drawn attention to the reliability of one of MI6’s sources. I challenged their Chief who had to admit that they were only 80% sure but linked to other sources it was their firm judgement that Saddam had WMD. Well Jeremy “I have created a dossier we can use in Parliament that emphasises the doubts, the rest will be down to you.”

15th February 2003, it was Jeremy Corbyn’s finest hour. His impassioned speech from the dispatch box was viewed as statesman like and changed the course of history. Fighting against the Tory party opposition and right wing rebels in his own party the vote was on a knife edge, “I find it deeply distasteful that I, the British Prime Minister can use the medieval powers of the royal prerogative to send young men and women to die, to kill civilians and for Iraqis to die.” He raised the now famous intelligence dossier, ”Yes, our intelligence suggests that Iraq has chemical and biological weapons but they are not completely sure. Can we go to war without certainty? Can we set off a spiral of conflict, of hate of misery, of desperation, that will fuel the wars, the conflict, the terrorism, the depression and the misery of future generations.”

It was an impassioned speech that played on the conscience of 10 of his own rebels who voted against war. He won the day. Bush without the support of its oldest ally, and with time against them, did not pursue their policy and quickly removed their troops from the Middle East. War was averted.

Saturday 17th June 2006, one hour after the royal party had left the Buckingham Palace balcony terrorists’ release nerve agent on the Victoria line and Bakerloo line at Oxford Circus and the Piccadilly Line and Northern Line at Leicester Square. Thankfully there were only 8 deaths but the panic and fear led to a loss in confidence in travelling in the Capital aided and abetted by false alarms over the subsequent 6 months.

The Metropolitan Police very quickly identified those responsible after trawling through hours of CCTV footage. Following arrest it was clear that they were from Iraq and had obtained the chemical weapons from the Iraq government. The UK and America built a coalition of 40 countries to invade Iraq in March 2007 following the unanimous vote in the Security Council to rid Iraq of its Weapons of Mass Destruction. The war lasted 9 months with a stiff defence by Saddam Hussein utilising both his chemical and biological weapons. 482 British Service personnel died and thousands were left with serious heath problems following exposure to both chemical and biological weapons.

On 15th June 2009 the then PM John McDonald set up an inquiry into the Iraq war including the run up to the conflict, the subsequent military action and the aftermath. Sir John Chilcot chaired the Inquiry.

6th July 2016 The final report of the Inquiry was published. Comprising 2.6 million words in 12 volumes at a cost of £767 per copy to buy. The extensive report never doubted Jeremy Corbyn’s belief that Iraq didn’t have WMD but was very critical of his challenge of the JIC assessment. The long-standing independence of the JIC had been compromised by political interference albeit that it had been done in good faith. Jeremy Corbyn accepted total responsibility for the interference in the preparation of the intelligence.

In responding to the Prime Minister after his statement on the Chilcot Report Tony Blair, the Leader of the Opposition apologised on behalf of the Labour Party.