This is a blog about strategy. Not Democrats. Not Republicans. Not conservative ideals. Not progressive goals. It’s about winning. It’s about the strategy and tactics of winning elections, dynamic competition within a democratic system, and the spread of ideas within a political system. Where the art of suasion replaces swords and the ballot box replaces battles.

It is, however, strictly about the strategy of politics. My expertise lies in the realm of military strategy, and that study will surely color this blog. It is about the tactics politicians and activists use to convince other people of their viability, whether as an elected leader or as an ideal, and about the use of those tactics over the long term to produce decisive effect: the acquisition of elected office or the success of a legislative package or movement. It will be political in the sense that it will be about current political events in the United States. It is apolitical in the sense that it will pass no moral judgment on the positions of candidates or other political figures, and will endorse neither democrats nor republicans nor their platforms. I intend to be ruthless about cheering victory and jeering defeat, in the interest of exploring the principles of campaign strategy. I also intend to never reveal my personal political leanings. If you are looking for a progressive blog or a conservative blog or support for such and such an issue, this is not the blog you are looking for. Like Frank Underwood, this blog will value winning for winning’s sake, because winners will have the most to teach us about effective strategy.

That being said, I am a novice when it comes to campaign strategy. I have developed a body of knowledge in military strategy but I have no base in campaign strategy besides enthusiasm. This blog is primarily a way for me to catalog and organize thoughts on campaign strategy. If it finds an audience, then all the better. Hopefully if I gain a knowledgeable audience I can learn from my readers, and maybe I’ll have something to teach them as well.

I’ll discuss the political news stories of the day when there is something to say about them and either tactics or strategy. The 2014 mid-term elections will be a test bed of sorts and posting will be slow until I hit my stride in this new subject. The 2016 presidential election will hopefully be full speed ahead, but I will not shy away from presidential election topics prior to November of 2014. Indeed, the 2016 campaign has already started. All posts will appear here on Medium, but I have also set up a Twitter account (@stratandsuasion) and an email (stratandsuasion@gmail.com). Please let me know how I’m doing as I am quite truly a student in this area. Book recommendations are always welcome. I apologize in advance for digressing into long screeds about foreign policy. I will do my best to avoid it, but that is my wheelhouse.

Last administrative note: My day job demands anonymity, however, that does not imply that I am involved in politics in real life. I am in public service, but at such a low level that I am not privy to any inside information. I have never worked for or even met a politician or political candidate, and do not work around Congress, the Administration, the Supreme Court, or any political appointee. I do not live in Washington, D.C. My only source is the media, and all of my conclusions are guesses.

Now for the real stuff. First, I’ll start with working definitions of strategy and tactics to get us started. Then I will assess the strategic state of the two political parties. I think that this is the perfect time to look at the strategies of each as neither will have an incumbent candidate in the upcoming presidential election. Neither side can default to a “keep our guy in office” strategy.

First, we must look at the operating environment. There are a few key aspects to the American political landscape. The American people do not inherently trust government, and their faith that the direction of the country is sound is extremely low. Voter turnout, consequently, is also low. In the near future, the US will cease to be a white-majority country (this process has already started). American acceptance of gay marriage is rapidly rising and faith in religion, any religion, is dropping. The country is split on abortion and economic confidence has been steady so far this year. This is just a tiny snapshot of the environment, but a necessary one to discuss the strategic outlook for each party.

Before going any further, I have to establish what I mean by strategy and tactics. This blog will use a Clausewitzian framework. Strategy is the overarching effort, the use of means (tactics) in ways that meet ends. The ends in war are the goal of the conflict, the political state that the strategist wishes to achieve at the conclusion. In war, tactics are combat actions, physical engagements with the enemy that are then used to further the strategy. In democratic politics, the strategy takes form in a campaign to win political office, or win support for a issue. The strategy is the campaign as a whole, and occurs at different levels. A political party has a strategy for the party as a whole, or it should. Individual candidates have a strategy to win office. The tactics are individual actions within those campaigns: debates, conventions, interviews, town hall meetings, press releases and press leaks, and the like.

First, the Republicans. The Right has a lot of things in its favor, mostly the fact that President Obama is unpopular. Although a lot of this unpopularity is the result of the Republicans resisting the President’s agenda for resistance’s sake for years, it is still a handicap that any Democrat candidate, including the 2016 presidential candidate, has to contend with. This, along with American proclivity to change parties after a two-term candidate, is the Republicans’ best weapon.

And they’re going to need it. The demographic direction of the country is against them. As mentioned above, the Republicans’ most reliable constituency- white, religious, anti-gay rights, financially well off Baby Boomers- are quite literally dying out. Pandering to the Religious, Socially Conservative Right generates a lot of cash and a lot of votes. Right now. But strategy is about the long-term, and the long-term does not look good for the Republicans. The current Republican plank just does not appeal to the young, the irreligious, the gay friendly, women, and minorities. And someday soon the typical American is going to be a young, irreligious, gay-friendly, woman of color. The Republicans seem to be caught up in tactics: focused on winning the battle du jour against the Democrats while ignoring a long term strategic vision.

The Democrats have a completely different problem. They’ve successfully rode a wave of young, passionate voters that value social progressive values above everything else. Except that they don’t. The young, even young Republicans, view anti-gay rights movements as embarrassing. The same for policies that don’t favor minorities. The Millennial generation grew up around and among gays and minorities and it’s just not the civilization-shaking issue that it is for the Boomers. So the young support the Democrats almost by default. “The Republicans may be right on economic or foreign policy or labor issues, but it doesn’t matter until our friends and neighbors are treated equally.” To the Millennial generation that has venerated the Civil Rights movement (deservedly so), any policy that even smells of inequality is poison. For some of these voters, these values are not “progressive” or “democratic,” they’re just modern. This is why Democrats are successful at implementing some socially progressive policies, like legalized gay marriage, but get stung when they attempt to implement others. There is also evidence that the Republicans are finally figuring this out.

Thus, Democrats should not confuse this windfall with a mandate. While they are more culturally in tune with where the country is going, they aren’t exactly popular. The best that can be said is that they’re less unpopular than the Republicans. There is strong support for Republican fiscal policies, although there is far less support for the tactics Republicans use to implement those policies. Republicans have an opportunity to flush out the perceived and (let’s be honest) actual bigotry in the party and seize back some initiative.

This is what I want this blog to become: an objective look at the American political landscape through the lense of strategic theory, usually applied to war and warfare. I hope you’ll join me.