Virtual Verification
Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Dismantle the Bomb (virtually, for science)
Last week, your humble editors took off to Atlanta to attend the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management 2014 annual conference (#INMM2014). In several sessions, we noticed the classic “technical meets policy” nuclear challenge of verification resurfaced again and again. With that, we have some ideas on the subject we’d like to share with you about verification, why it’s important, and the challenges surrounding it.
You wonks may be gripping the edge of your seats wondering what StrategicSwagger can add to the conversation on verification, so let’s dive right in. Simply put, verification is how we verify something happened (talk about tautology). Though, in the nuclear realm, we usually see it when organizations (such as the CTBTO) run diagnostics and test to ensure that a specific state did or did not in fact carry out a nuclear test or whether a nation did or did not in fact dismantle a nuclear weapon. Verification is the validation of claims made by one state or an organization through direct and/or indirect methods and continues to be a large challenge.
In layman’s terms, verification is the equivalent of ‘pics or it didn’t happen.’
Now let’s look at the challenges of nuclear verification. First, from the perspective of verifiers, how do you confirm the dismantlement of a nuclear weapon when you cannot simply take pictures of nuclear materials and document them? Second, from the state-side, how do you keep your weapon design and information from falling into the hands of outside entities? For us in the nonproliferation community, the secrecy of nuclear weapons and their designs generates a logistical nightmare for states and verifiers alike. Many of the major players mistrust, misunderstand, and suffer from uncertainty (and the human errors that come with such paranoia) when it comes to verification procedures and protocols. Thankfully this is where technology comes in and saves the day!
If a state wanted to dismantle its nuclear weapons, it would need to be verified by a third party (ideally a non-nuclear weapon state). Trustworthy systems have been made to verify certain materials, but do not allow information to facilitate confidence building between two or more players. Systems such as non-electronic detectors, information barriers, and protocols make verification a feasible reality, but such suggestions need to be tested. We at StrategicSwagger offer a suggestion to bolster confidence building of verification between different parties: virtual reality.
Now we know what you’re thinking. How can virtual reality be leveraged to promote reliable methods of nuclear verification? The way we see it, a computer-built generated facility could allow parties to build trust and confidence in the established protocols for the dismantlement of a nuclear facility. Researchers, inspectors, students, and instructors can model and develop virtual landscapes for free using open-source technology to simulate the dismantlement of a nuclear weapon and see the weaknesses and strengths of specific protocols.
Further, it is an immersive experience that allows for the protocols to be tested as they are being developed without the need for a full-scale experiment (which makes it totally awesome). These “test-drives” can allow parties to increase the confidence in the protocol and each other and help expedite dismantlement and disarmament.
We have metric tons of information on virtual verification (hello, we are the ones that did this) and how these 21st century technologies can help us solve 2oth century problems and how the open-source, free technologies used to research these problems can make societal verification a reality, but we have said enough. Now it’s up to you wonks to make it happen.
Below are a few links demonstrating an experiment done at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies where a nuclear weapon was dismantled in a virtual nuclear facility. Further, this virtual verification and dismantlement will presented by yours truly at the Union of Concerned Scientists 26th Annual Symposium on World Affairs, hosted by Princeton University. For more information and questions we are always on the lookout for your swaggadelic and wonktastic ideas so email us at strategicswagger@gmail.com
https://storify.com/ferencdv/nuclear-verification-and-dismantlement-in-a-virtua
Written by: Cervando A. Bañuelos II
Edited by: Marianne Fisher
