Prediction Error and Story Creation

Psychology to Business


I was reading a psychological book, How Emotions Are Made (Barrett, 2017)several weeks ago. In that book, the author touches upon the idea of “prediction(concept)” and discusses how people react to it. I came up with the following idea (the connection between prediction error and story creation) and draw diagrams.


In the daily life people face a series of event: A, B, and C. There is a loose connection among them and people unconsciously start to draw a line. It is a concept as well as prediction.

Then we expect the following event D on the line. However, we suddenly encounter another event E which is called “prediction error.”

Although E has nothing to do with a prediction line, people start wondering and try to find some connection between a group (A, B and C) and E. That is the beginning of story creation. Thanks to this process, people turn a boring series of event into a meaningful personal experience.

I guess we could apply this concept/method into business. As I mentioned earlier in this blog, story has a meaningful power in recent years. It would work efficiently if we could design this series of event intentionally within services or products.