The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. What is going on now?
The summary of the last week of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
The war continues. Russian troops are losing the initiative, but are still trying to move forward. Let’s speak about the most critical occasions of this week. Such a week's summary will be regular on this blog.
During such analyses, we will go along the whole frontline from the Kharkiv oblast in the northeast to Kherson and Mykolaiv in the southwest. So, the Kharkiv oblast:
Russians are trying to improve their tactical positions in the Kharkiv oblast. They try to move forward in the northeast (at the north from Chuhuiv) to have the artillery control of the Kharkiv. Fortunately, Ukrainian forces defended successfully, and there were no moves from Russians.
Also, the Russians started their offensive near Balaklia. They are trying to encircle Ukrainians between the Balaklia and Izium. What is more, in case Russians will have advanced there, they can try to encircle Kharkiv. However, it can be used just for improving positions for the advance on the south (we will see it speaking about Donbas).
Speaking about Ukrainian forces there, I can highlight two goals.
The first is to push Russians from Kharkiv to prevent them from the everyday shelling, that kills dozens of civilians daily.
The second is a more strategic one. It is not visible on the map, but the two railways from Russia to Izium, are crucial for Russian logistics. One comes from Valuyki (northeast), the second from Vovchansk (“Волчанск” on the map). Both of them come to Kupiansk.
So, if the Ukrainian army controls these routes, Russian troops near Izium will be cut off from the Russian territory and won’t be supplied.
We have finished with Kharkiv. Let’s move to Donbas and start with the Kramatorsk and Sloviansk region:
This theatre should become the most important one after the occupation of the Luhansk oblast (Lysychansk in the east was the last oblast city under Ukrainian control). Russians claimed their main goal was to “liberate the territory DNR and LNR”(Russian-backed terrorist organizations), and Sloviansk together with Kramatorsk are the most significant cities there under Ukrainian control.
However, Russians struggled to occupy any more territory after Lysychansk. They are unsuccessfully attacking Bakhmut for 3 months from the beginning of the battle of Severodonetsk. The same situation is near Sloviansk, where Russians can not move forward significantly after the occupation of Lyman at the very beginning of the invasion.
The Russian army is still active there but can not take any success. What is more, the Ukrainian 93rd brigade even attacks the Russians near Izium.
Finishing with this theatre, it is important to mention the railways to Izium. On this map, we can see that control under the Izium gives Russians an opportunity to endanger Ukrainian troops with a massive encirclement of the Donbas near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. So, if the Russians lose logistics in Izium and are defeated there, the situation for Ukrainians will be much better.
OK, let’s go further:
This week, Russians have started an offensive on Avdiivka and Pisky, the settlements in the suburbs of Donetsk. This frontline was not active before.
The low activity there can be easily explained. These territories have been a frontline since 2014. Both sides are entrenched there very well, so the offensive is hard.
I can suppose that the reason offensive there is “pseudo referendum”. Russians want to annex these territories, and it is not OK to hold a referendum under the shelling of Ukrainian artillery.
The situation at this part of the frontline is hard, but on the whole, the Russians can not conquer any territories.
I will miss the Zaporizhia piece of the front because there are only local attacks from both sides without big moves and armies. Let’s go to the most interesting Kherson theatre.
Why do I say that Kherson theatre is the most fascinating? Because Ukraine is making it the main theatre by announcing a counteroffensive. President Zelenskiy said that Ukraine should liberate Kherson as soon as possible. What is more, the Minister of Defence Oleksiy Reznikov stated, that the army has an order from the President to start the operation in the south.
For more than a month, Ukrainian authorities have been speaking about the offensive in the south. However, there are no big attacks with the liberation of large territories. Why?
Most experts agree that the Ukrainian army is making a trap. Ukrainians are waiting for the Russians to move additional troops. Why Ukraine is allowing Russia to strengthen this part of the front?
The answer is quite easy, Russians are very vulnerable there.
You can see the map of the Dnipro river in Kherson oblast (some western parts and the Kherson itself are not there, but it is not important). There are only two bridges: one in Antonivka and the dam of Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric power station.
There are no other connections between the right bank of the Dnipro area and other territories occupied by Russia. I have already said about the strikes on the bridge in Antonivka using HIMARS in my article about that system.
What does it mean? Using HIMARSes, drones and other long-range artillery, Ukraine can cut off all the Russian troops on the right bank and “help” their supplies to end quickly. Today there are 22 battalion tactical groups (600–800 soldiers and officers each) on the right bank and 27 at the reserve closer to Crimea.
So, Ukrainians probably wait for the Russians to move more troops there and then strike it. Using Western weapons, it is possible to defeat Russians there and liberate Kherson.
Russians, on the other hand, have two variants. The first is to give up and leave the right bank of the Dnipro river and Kherson. The second is to counterattack.
Unfortunately for them, both are impossible. The first is because of the Putin and Russian military tradition. Putin can not lose Kherson as the only occupied regional centre. Why tradition? Because it is used for Russians to have political order, which is impossible but more important than military needs. The problem with the second variant is that it does not solve the problem of the supplies. Ukrainians can still strike storage and bridges.
US Army General John J. Pershing was right when he said: “Infantry wins battles, logistics wins wars.” The evidence we see on the battlefields of Ukraine. The logistics of this war will become one of the next themes, together with the south counter-offensive. See you.
Thank you for reading. My name is Volodymyr Sukholytkyi, and it is my newly created blog.
Here we will be talking about world politics, economy, social phenomena and actual news. Nowadays for me a Ukrainian, the main theme is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So, it will also be the main theme of this blog.
Thank you one more time and see you!