Post 2050: The Future of Israel
The objective of this write-up is to explore the future of Israel post 2050 in the backdrop of the changing geo-political landscape.
There is no doubt that Jewish people have their roots in the present day Israel. Between 10th and 9th century BCE, there is evidence, though some aspects are being contested, of existence of Israel and Judah. It is unfortunate that the Jewish people have been pushed around and have been living in diaspora for approximately 3 millennium. From my perspective the Jewish community have every right to co-exist in this sacred land and also have a country of their own.
However, the point behind this article is to consider the future of Israel by 2050. This is dictated by history since 1947, how Israel was formed and what Israeli people have done to the Palestinians. As we speak the history is being dictated, re-edited and perceptions are being remolded. We also know that the days of unipolar American power are limited. To predict the future we need to look at three things.
- Actions of Israeli Government
- How the History is being captured
- Geopolitics 30 years from today
Since the formation of the Israel, the expansion of Israel is continuous and belligerent. The systematic expansion, in the name of protection corridor, is obvious to the majority of the world, depending on how one interprets these expansionist actions. Pushing Palestinians into narrow corridors, and lack of economic opportunity is akin to concentration camps. Many left leaning Jews see this irony and they are speaking up, but the media has an alternative narrative to push. We are born into a tribe and human beings don’t easily forget the injustices perpetuated against their group. Jewish community is well aware of this reality and so are many other groups such as Armenians, Chinese for the Opium War, Indians for the 700 years of colonization by the British and the Mughals. Can we expect the Palestinians to forget the short end of the stick they have received? Even their own blood brothers have disowned them. Saudi Arabia was at the verge of normalizing the relationship with Israel, but then the October 7 gruesome attack happened. It would be a shame if we were not to talk about the savagery perpetuated by Hamas.
Hamas, the militant wing of the Palestinian resistance to Israeli occupation, carried out the gruesome attack on Israel in October 2023. The social media captured and documented the atrocities by the Hamas fighters. No amount of justification can minimize the savagery of the attacks, especially the brutality carried out against the children and women. From my perspective, the carnage carried out by Hamas fighters pale with respect to what followed in the aftermath. Many times more Palestinian children and women have been butchered by the Israeli army, as the world watches along. The big brother, America, continues to support and fund the Israeli Government. Someone wise once said, an eye for an eye, leaves everyone blind. Israel is fast loosing its moral standing in the world as the unfolding of the history is being captured live on the social media. It is no surprise that even the big brother, America, is begging Israel to cease and desist! While Hamas actions were morally wrong, only time will tell how the Palestinians will see them. One man’s terrorists is another man’s freedom fighter.
With the advent of social media platforms like Twitter, Youtube, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook, billions of people are consuming and propagating unfiltered information as it is being generated unhindered. Even if there are attempts to doctor the narrative, alternative views still exist on the internet. And the 1.6 billion Muslims, with their finger power, are far more formidable power to overcome as compared to the 14 million Jews. Even in the US, the Jewish population is less than 2 million out of 340 million. The true democracy is in the interactions between the fingers and the screen. It is going to be next to impossible for the small Israeli Jewish population, in the fragmented American political landscape, to fight the tsunami that is shaping the history. The disenfranchised Palestinians living in the West are also playing their part in subtly reminding the West about the Western Hypocrisy, namely British and the American lopsided historical roles. It should suffice to say that Israel is loosing the sympathy vote on the social media as noted in the article here.
US finds itself in another quagmire of its own making. With 2 battles raging, that directly or indirectly involves US resources, the patience of the American voters is being tested. Biden’s popularity is on the dive and US is trying to extract itself out of Ukraine as it gets involved in Israeli marauding escapades. All the pleading by Blinken is falling on the deaf ears of Bibi Netanyahu. Israel is hell bent on completely destroying Hamas, and in the whole process leaving Palestinian people cornered into decimated concentrated camp. The Israelis might win the battle, but as US hegemony is loosing its sheen, and by 2050 it is expected that China will overtake US economically. This is likely to compromise US position on Israel. Russia/China is also forming a nexus in middle-east which is not a good position for Israel long-term. On the other hand India is being a pure opportunist, and no one knows where India will stand long-term, looking out for its self-interests. I am expecting that Israel lobby in Washington DC will loose its leverage. All of this evolving landscape does not put Israel in a good geo-political standing.
Professor Mearsheimer has already given a verdict. The idea of a two national state compromise, i.e. Israel / Palestine, has already left the station. Hamas and the hardliner Israelis are racing towards one nation solution on the backs of the vanquished foe. There is some buzz on social media that Egypt had warned Israelis about the impending attack from Hamas, but the warning was ignored? Was it part of Bibi’s strategy? Use the Hamas attack as a leverage to eliminate Palestine completely from the picture? Even if Israelis win the short term battle, which I am predicting will go in Israel’s favor, the long-term future of Israel is uncertain, especially post 2050. I am predicting that within a decade US will start curtailing its blind support for Israel and the Global Muslim population will not forgive the Jews for the injustice being carried out against Palestinians. Even the opinion amongst Americans towards Israelis is souring. As much as Israel is for Jewish people, Palestinians have inhabited this area as equals for many millennia. I so much wish that left leaning Israelis has worked out two state solution when the time was ripe.
My heart weeps for the future of this biblical land. Just more destruction, mayhem, and bloodshed. It took almost 3 millennia for Jewish diaspora to come back to Israel and have their own country. Every tribe has the right to exist in a country of their own. Post 2100, I am questioning the viability of Israel with the existing atrocities in the backdrop. I sincerely wish that Israeli leadership had looked at Singapore as an alternative political survival model. It could be argued that Singapore is not a perfect example, for comparison sake, because it lacks the history of Jewish people. Fair enough, but it is still a small country, both land wise as well as in population. It is surrounded by Muslim countries. As a functional democracy, somewhat limited, it has included other minorities in its political system. It is not as if Singapore is never worried about Malaysia invading. That is why it has similar civil defense force and mandatory army service for the men coming out of college. There are few things Israeli political elites could have learned from Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew.
Oh well, I am hoping I am proven wrong and some sanity prevails soon. Maybe there are alternatives that I am not considering for two nation option!
