I’m going to make a couple of predictions for 2020 and 2024. If Donald Trump is not impeached for treason, and his Presidency stabilizes to any degree in the next four years, he’s going to win a second term. I predict that because the DNC has not learned its lesson, and older fly-over state voters will not change their Republican voting habits. It will be maddening when it happens.
The political process has been utterly encroached in both parties by Oligarchs. The real people who represent those interests- who do not themselves identify as Oligarchs- are highly resistant to the political lessons of 2016. They employ journalists and pundits who parrot their intractable arrogance. The people who will be in the super-delegate pool, the major donors, the cable networks, those people will have fixed ideas about what happened in 2016, and listening to the dying middle class will never occur to them. They hated Bernie with venom. He repudiated the virtue of their wealth and concentrated power. They will run a younger Clinton in 2020, someone like Corey Booker, and while it seems impossible now, if Trump gains any traction at all, he will lose.
He will lose if he has even a handful of modest victories, because all establishment candidates are destroyed by the campaign machine of Trump, as it harnesses the feeling people have in the pit of their stomach that something needs to change. Only alternative, positive change can challenge Trump, or Trump-like candidates, and win. And it will. I believe there’s a good chance it will win by 2024, with the rise of Millennial political power.
As the oldest voters who were indoctrinated to duck and cover in bomb drills, and who will never vote for a socialist, begin to die and Millennials turn 40, we will see a fundamental shift to democratic socialism. This will happen because the core economic experience of living the American dream through our American interpretation of capitalism is unraveling the middle class, and these experiences are deeply imprinted for too many people in that very large generation of people who don’t remember the Cold War.