Welp, it’s that time again. The 2023–2024 NBA regular season starts on Tuesday, October 24. The offseason felt relatively quiet. Off the top of my head: FIBA happened where Team USA lost out to Team Canada for the BRONZE medal (which is great for the Canadian team but really bad for the Team USA). A Dennis Schroder-led German team won it all and were crowned “world” champions — literally. Victor Wembanyama finally got drafted and seems positioned in the next few years to change how basketball is played, at least from an individual standpoint. The new CBA was established. This year will be the first year they try out the In-Season tournament. Jaylen Brown became the highest paid NBA player in history. Bradley Beal joins the Phoenix Suns to form a big 3 with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Chris Paul is a Golden State Warrior! James Harden wants out of Philly and wants to be a Clipper. Kawhi and PG seem healthy and happy with Russell Westbrook. Steven Adams is out for the rest of the season leaving Jaren Jackson Jr. as their starting center but Marcus Smart got traded to the Memphis Grizzlies. Damian Lillard is a Milwaukee Buck. Chet vs Wemby might be the new Magic vs Bird.
Well, maybe it wasn’t so quiet.
But all that to say: in light of an ever shifting league, it is a good time for some BOLD predictions.
A few disclaimers though:
- I am, by no means, a sports journalist or former basketball player on any level other than casual pick-up. These bold takes are just just as a fan of the league who listens to podcasts and reads some articles. I like to imagine I have some level of competent takes but that illusion could easily be shattered.
- By BOLD, I mean it’s probably not bold at all. There will. be SOME bold takes, I guess, but really, I just want a record of what I think is going to happen during the season.
- I am a fan of the Oklahoma City Thunder so I won’t pretend that my knowledge of the Thunder won’t skew my view of them. However, based off the general pulse I have of how national media and some local media is talking about the Thunder, I think I’m being pretty reasonable.
Alrighty, I’ll start listing my takes and I’ll write something if I feel the need to explain my take. I’ll only be doing regular season awards. When the playoff matchups are set, I’ll do bold predictions then.
Regular Season Standings
Eastern Conference:
- Boston Celtics
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Brooklyn Nets
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Atlanta Hawks
- New York Knicks
- Toronto Raptors
- Orlando Magic
- Miami Heat
- Indiana Pacers
- Detroit Pistons
- Chicago Bulls
- Washington Wizards
- Charlotte Hornets
Notes: Boston’s pickup of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis to replace Marcus Smart and Rob Williams actually makes me feel like they’re more competent. They were only 1 win behind Milwaukee last year and I don’t know that Milwaukee actually got stronger with the Lillard pickup. Watching the Bucks in the preseason made me less confident in them (I know, preseason doesn’t mean anything). But on top of that, I have 76ers jumping up because I expect Tyrese Maxey to flourish without Harden and Embiid seems to be all in on new head coach Nick Nurse’s playbook.
Brooklyn will have a full year of Mikal Bridges being ‘the man’. Ben Simmons seems joyful and renewed. Hopefully, he can keep that headspace throughout the whole season because it would GREATLY benefit that squad. Nick Claxton is looking to assert himself as a interior defender to watch out for. A young motivated Brooklyn team is going to be fun to watch.
I think the Atlanta Hawks are going to come into the season with a chip on their shouldr. They have to be dissatisfied with the last few years since their single appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021. While losing John Collins may feel like a loss, I think it will actually benefit them. Jalen Johnson looks good and AJ Griffin will hopefully see more rotation minutes. Quin Snyder is a good coach and will make them better.
Chicago falling out of the play-in tournament and Orlando making it in maybe my boldest takes for this conference. It’s time for Chicago to blow it up. I said this in my post about the top 10 players in each position for the upcoming season and I’ll repeat it here: I am not sure what to do with Demar Derozan. Does he put a team over the top? I don’t think so. Does anyone else in Chicago? I don’t think so. Does Chicago know what to do with Demar Derozan? I don’t think so.
It’s time for Orlando to rise. Franz Wagner is a literal “world” champ. Banchero has had a full season under his belt along with playing for Team USA and he is is a very good basketball player already. Jonathan Isaac may have a healthy season and he can be the defensive connector for that team. They still got some decisions to make with Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony which is why I think they drafted Anthony Black. But the Magic are a team to watch this season.
The Detroit Pistons might be a surprise team this season. After only winning 17 games last season, I can see them winning 27+ this season. A healthy Cade Cunningham is a welcome presence to this struggling team. Jalen Duren is going to be a force to be reckoned with. I like Jaden Ivey a lot. He’s hard working and he has an edge. He still has to work on his jumpshot but it’s only his 2nd season. I can see him making a run for MIP in a year or two. Monty Williams has inherited a good team and he might be the coach to push them to a cohesive unit after a few years of tanking. Otherwise, I can see Pistons’ general manager Troy Weaver’s job probably being on the line.
Western Conference:
- Golden State Warriors
- Denver Nuggets
- Phoenix Suns
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Sacramento Kings
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Dallas Mavericks
- New Orleans Pelicans
- San Antonio Spurs
- Utah Jazz
- Houston Rockets
- Portland Trailblazers
Notes: Before I explain…this was hard. The West is just going to be tough. I don’t think there are any teams that will be actively tanking like there has been the last few seasons. While you have fresh young talent on the bottom loaded teams, they all have veterans that aren’t looking to not compete. Blazers have Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons. Rockets have Fred Van Vleet and Jeff Green. Jazz have Kelly Olynyk, Jordan Clarkson, and Lauri Markannen. Spurs have Zach Collins, Doug McDermott, and Cedi Osman. Everyone is looking to compete. Only a serious injury to a star player makes me think that there will be a team that wins less than 22 games (like the Spurs and Rockets did last season). Because of that, almost all of what I have for the Western Conference feels like a bold take. I think this is going to look very foolish once the season comes around. But here’s some of what I was thinking:
I agree with new Golden State Warriors general manager Mike Dunleavey’s assessment of Chris Paul when he had the idea to trade for him: outside of the Warriors’ history with CP3, dealing with the Jordan Poole/Draymond incident, and saving money…he makes teams better. New Orleans…Los Angeles…Houston…Oklahoma City…Phoenix…and I have no reason to think that he won’t do the same for Golden State. Yes, they will have a size issue when they hit the playoffs. They probably won’t make it further than the 2nd round unless they pick up an actual big that can handle the likes of Anthony Davis and Nikola Jokic (which there aren’t many at all). But they’ll make a splash in the regular season. I’m expecting Jonathan Kuminga’s name to be in the mix for Most Improved Player and 6th Man of the Year awards.
The defending champions feel like they’re going to just have a year to prep for the playoffs and then go for their second championship in a row. How much will they feel the loss of Bruce Brown? Only as much as Christian Braun will fill that void. And he will fill it somewhat.
The new big 3 in Phoenix is in third because I do not expect Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal and Devin Booker to play more than 50 games together this season. But if two of them play 60–70 games together, I think it’ll get Phoenix home court advantage.
A Battle for LA in the first round would be phenomenal. It feels like everyone is putting their chips on Anthony Davis, including Darvin Ham and Lebron James. They want him to show up this season. I expect the NBA and ESPN to push Anthony Davis to be the MVP this season. The new rules for eligibility for regular season awards would require Anthony Davis to play 65 games. He has not played 65 games since 2017–2018 when he was still on the Pelicans. He has not played more than 60 games since the 2019–2020 season — the season of the Bubble. He played 56 games last season but that was after playing 40 games the season before and 36 games the season before that. Not sure if they should depend on Anthony Davis to be there. But if he is there, I can definitely see a narrative where he steals some votes from Giannis and Jokic.
I had a really hard time placing Memphis. At one point, I had them out of the play-in and at another point I had them with home court advantage. I had them rotating with Dallas and New Orleans and I finally landed them just above the play-in. My feelings about the Memphis is a reflection of their offseason: goodbye Dillon Brooks, hello Marcus Smart! Jaren Jackson Jr can’t rebound? No problem! Steven Adams will be back! Oh, Steven Adams is out for the season? And Ja will have to serve that 25 game suspension at the beginning of the season. But Desmond Bane is healthy and they’ve played without Ja before and they flourished. Santi Aldama is really good too. But man, they won 51 games last season and they were the 2nd seed? How far is too far for a drop? I think they won’t win 50+ games this season but…will they? Naaaah…right?
Bill Simmons had Oklahoma City as the 4th seed in his bold predictions podcast. National media seems really high on the Thunder and as much as I appreciate it, it feels like they’re setting the Thunder up for disappointment or they just don’t know how to talk about the Thunder. I’m a fan of the Thunder and I would be flabbergasted if they got home court advantage. In fact, I’d be extremely excited if we even got out of the play-in tournament. They are going to be an extremely exciting team to follow this season. Some goals for the Thunder: get SGA to shoot more 3s (4 per game would be great at a 35% min. clip) and play more offball. Chet, JDub, and Giddey to average 20 ppg, 18 ppg, and 16 ppg respectively. Lu Dort was 52% at the rim last season. That needs to improve…a lot. All that to say, I expect them in the play-in tournament but actually make it into the playoffs to make their first playoff appearance since the Bubble season. The tank is over.
I am not sure what the Mavericks will do next season. I’m seeing a lot of people say they won’t make it to the playoffs but I just have a hard time believing that a healthy Luka x Kyrie won’t make some noise. They tanked out of the play-in last season but I think they could have made it. Yes, they need to figure out defense. But they’ve had a whole offseason together. They’ll figure something out.
I chose the Mavericks over the Pelicans because of health. Zion Williamson looks healthy and motivated. He’s played 61 games in one of his four seasons. He did not play at all in one season. He played 24 games and 29 games in the other two seasons. If he plays 60+ games and the rest of the crew (CJ, Alvarado, and Ingram) stays healthy, I can see someone else other than them dropping out.
Maybe my boldest take here is having the Minnesota Timberwolves jump up into the 7th seed. I just think they’re going to be better than most of us think. We’ve conditioned ourselves to think they’re losers (and they are)…but we will lose to them this year if they can stay healthy and stick together. How big a jump Anthony Edwards makes and how the tandem of Gobert and KAT will determine how far this team goes.
All eyes will be on Victor Wembanyama this season but hopefully his shine won’t take the outshine Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Jeremy Sochan (the point guard!) too much. This group is ready to surprise the league. Wemby will get the credit because he draws so much attention, but what will make or break this team is how well the rest of the team absorbs the enormous talent and size that Victor has. If there’s a team that can make a surprise jump and knock Dallas (or anyone from 7-10) out, I’d put my money on the Spurs and not feel like anyone could beat me up about it. They have some good veterans and a Hall of Fame coach that might be finally motivated with the team he has.
I don’t know that the Utah Jazz got any better. Keyonte George was a great pickup. But not a needle-moving pickup. More like a replacing Sexton or Clarkson pickup. Reigning MIP Lauri Markannen keeps their ship steady but they do need more. I’m excited to see Walker Kessler’s trajectory as player this season. I’m expecting him to adapt and shoot some threes this season while maintaining his status as an elite rim protector. But again, I don’t expect these developments to move the needle much for Utah. They need another star.
If Houston blasted off, I could see them overtaking Utah for 13th in the West. While that seems like a joke, they won 22 games last season while Utah won 37. I expect Utah to win less and Houston to win more. New head coach Ime Udoka will have set a culture. Vets like Fred Van Vleet and Jeff Green will bring an identity and some sense to the young stars on that team. Jalen Green, Alperun Shengun, Tara Eason, and Jabari Smith Jr are all poised and ready to go with the right culture and mentorship that they need and deserve. Dillon Brooks will bring the edge. If everything works out, they’ll be a good team…next year.
I don’t even like the Portland Trailblazers being dead last here. Anfernee Simons is too good. Shaedon is going to make a jump. Scoot has a legit shot at Rookie of the Year. Jerami Grant is going to have 24 ppg on the league. Deandre Ayton doesn’t hate his team anymore. This is just too hard.
Regular Season Awards
Coach of the Year: Nick Nurse of the Philadelphia 76ers. There was question about his coaching in his last few years in Toronto. I think we’ll find out that maybe it was more Toronto than it was Nick Nurse. If Nick Nurse can make the 76ers the 2nd seed over the Bucks in his first year of coaching there with the Harden non-trade, Tyrese Maxey making a leap, and Embiid buying in, then I think he has a good shot.
Honorable mentions:
Jamahl Mosley of the Orlando Magic. I am afraid the jump won’t be big enough for his name to be seriously considered. Orlando would need to land 4–6 seed for him to win it. I think he won’t win it for the same reason Mark Daigneault didn’t win it last season: you put them on the map but not high enough in the standings.
Mark Daigneault of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Coach Mark came in 2nd to Mike Brown last season after winning 40 games last season for a team that was predicted to win maybe 25 if you took the over on the over/under. I think the expectations are too high for the team this season for Coach Mark to be seriously considered. I suppose if they got home court advantage in the West, that should guarantee it for him.
Clutch Player of the Year: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This is a weird award because it might be the most easily measurable? De’Aaron Fox won it last year by a landslide. He could probably win it again. But I’ll give myself one bold homer take. With guys that can finally spread the floor, that means more room in the lane for SGA to operate. He averaged the most drives per game for the last few years. He’s pretty clutch.
Rookie of the Year: Victor Wembanyama. It’s his to lose, honestly. Chet and Scoot have legitimate shots at this but social media is going to be filled with Victor Wembanyama clips doing ridiculous things so I can’t imagine anyone else winning it if he stays healthy and plays enough games this season.
Most Improved Player: Tyrese Maxey. With James Harden gone, Tyrese Maxey is poised to take over as the starting point guard and show off his skills.
Honorable Mention: Jonathan Kuminga. He had a great preseason and with the addition of Chris Paul, guys like Kuminga will flourish. There’s just a lot more star power in Golden State than there is in Philly so the attention will get drawn away from him. He’ll probably play off the bench too.
6th Man of the Year: Jonathan Kuminga. If Chris Paul starts (which I think he will), I don’t see why JK won’t have a legitimate shot at this. He’ll need to be good enough where he will be more valuable at the end of games but I think that may be possible if they think Looney is too slow and CP is too small.
Honorable mentions: Malik Monk. He played a great 6th man last season on Sacramento behind De’Aaron Fox. He fits the profile of a Lou Williams, Jamal Crawford, and Manu Ginobli. He got some votes last year but behind a few others players. He deserves another look. He is a big part of what made the Beam Team great last season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama. This is probably a bold take. But I’d be remissed if Victor Wembanyama didn’t average 3–4 blocks per game this season. His ability to recover when he gets shaken and his length to get to jumpshots at the perimeter is devastating. It’s going to be amazing to see players beging to adjust their shooting arc because of him. While these are legitimate arguments for Wembanyama to win it, I think we’re just tired of arguing ourselves out of Rudy Gobert winning it.
Most Valuable Player: Stephen Curry. I think this is also a bold take. He hasn’t won MVP in a while but I can see it happening this season if my prediction is right in Golden State securing the first seed in the West. Less pressure on him to playmake with Chris Paul there so he can spend the enormous amount of energy he has running around screens even more now since he won’t have to create as much for himself. I think he’s going to average 30+ as well. Heck, put me down for him winning the scoring title this season as well. With Klay looking like he’s regressing and without Poole taking up shots that he demanded, Steph is gonna toy with all of us and win it again.
Honorable mention: Nikola Jokic. He got robbed last season. Should have three-peated. They may just give it to him to make up for their mistake last season since he won the championship and the Finals MVP and because of the way the reigning MVP Embiid went out in the first round. I get that it’s a regular season award but in SOME cases, playoff performances prove that the media just got it wrong.
