Yes I suppose you are right about China. I know it is not wise to make predictions but here goes anyway.
I doubt the EU will outlast the United States but that is anybody’s guess. The EU is committing suicide by political correctness and it really has nothing except a lot of neo-Marxist claptrap about abstract articles of faith like “equality.” Germany is probably the worst infected of all the EU countries, probably because there doesn't seem to be anything Germans hate more than themselves. But as long as Germans are beating up on themselves rather than anyone else its all good I suppose. At least they seem to be able to manage an economy quite prudently but they have no idea how to hold a society together. I wouldn't count on Germany providing any kind of leadership anywhere. I doubt Putin has any particular interest in destabilising the EU. He can see that the EU is more than capable of doing that all by itself; and anyway the EU staying together in some format would probably suit Russia better overall. Putin is more interested in weakening NATO which is perfectly understandable. He has had mixed results in this so far but neither Germany nor the EU has proven any match for him. In fact their constant bickering and their endless incoherent mismanagement of their foreign relations has been farcical at every turn.
I think the EU is in much worse shape than the United States. Of course things can change and it is true that the true economic power in the world is rapidly transferring to the east. At least the Germans still understand that you've got to actually produce goods to sell if you want to have a healthy economy that can produce meaningful jobs. Gambling with other people’s money and paying for millions of students to do HR management and feminist “equality” studies is never going to cut it. Germany might survive if they get rid of Merkel and close their borders and stop their festivals of self-flagellation. I have better hopes for France because the recent election highlighted a rise in awareness of all this destructive neo-Marxist policy coming from both their own state bodies and from Berlin and Brussels.
But I am optimistic for France and Britain and even Spain and Italy and Ireland too. Poland is doing well and so are most of the other Eastern countries mostly because they have developed a habit of simply ignoring EU directives that they don’t like. The EU doomed itself to failure the day it officially morphed from a simple trade club into a federalisation project that nobody asked for and most people don’t want. It is a massive wasteful, arrogant, out of touch bureaucracy which is completely unrepresentative of the aspirations of most of the people who live within its borders. So if it can be dissolved peacefully, there will be few mourners at the funeral. But hopefully it can be dissolved peacefully so that those countries that are not busy wilfully destroying themselves can begin to restore themselves before they too are buried by Islam and its new ally, political correctness.
Germany seems to be committed historically to attempting to destroy the whole of Europe every 50 years or so. But usually it ends by destroying itself most of all; which I suppose is good news for Germans considering they hate themselves so much. Anyway along comes Ankela Merkel right on cue. She decides that driving a lot of tanks into Russia probably won’t get very far this time, and supporting NATO in its reckless sabre rattling in the Baltics and Ukraine kind of back-fired, mostly because Putin proved a lot smarter than Obama; so why not just throw the mother of all virtue-signalling festivals instead, and offer to house and feed the population of the world. What could possibly go wrong?
I think the United States dodged a very large bullet when it refused to elect Hillary Clinton and her obscene “Hillary’s Village” doctrine. I don’t know whether she ripped it off from Ankela Merkel or Gloria Steinem, but it is basically an idiot’s guide; a 10 steps on how to destroy a healthy society. How many times does something have to result in disaster before these PC types begin to consider that it might not be a good idea? Trump might be a blustering clown, although I don’t think he is an idiot, but he is not pandering to the PC lobby and that is a breath of fresh air in itself. His election, like the rise in popularity of people like Marine le Pen in France, and the success of the Brexit referendum all point to a change in the wind direction. This is not a rise of the far right. It is a rise of the ordinary people who are saying “leave us the hell alone.”
The left; from the semi articulate socialists on the campuses chanting their inane slogans (my favourites were the “anarchists” campaigning for the “remain” camp!!! — you really couldn't make that up) right up to the po-faced commissars of the ministry of political correctness in Brussels; do not understand this. They are too blinded by their own smug sense of moral superiority; too steeped in their own indoctrination. They will not understand it until the day their whole rotten construction has collapsed around them.
But Vladimir Putin understands it perfectly. In Russia, we’ve already gone through all this and we understand. People do not like bureaucrats re-engineering their societies without their permission. People do not like strangers in suits that they have never even heard of, telling them what to do. People do not like their unique cultures and traditions being forcefully homogenised and eradicated in the name of something called diversity; and people are smart enough to understand the difference between “multiculturalism” and an engineered cultural eclipse. Who’d have thought?