Yes it may be just a wild theory. I read a biography a few years ago by a retired KGB colonel who had been stationed in Cuba. He wondered why there were so few Russian troops. That was the first thing that aroused his suspicions. He knew that normally a missile base housing nuclear weapons would have thousands of guards, not a few sleepy soldiers and definitely not a bunch of Cuban irregulars. It also worried him that none of the military officers he encountered seemed worried by this.
He also does not believe the deal cut for the removal of those missiles was credible. After all the Russian government had agreed not to interfere with American planes overseeing the removal of the missiles so that the Americans could verify that they were being removed. But the Americans had no way of knowing how many missiles had been brought to Cuba in the first place, so how could they possibly know they had all been removed?
Secondly an empty rocket is indistinguishable from the air from an armed nuclear one. All the Americans saw for sure were a lot of long metal boxes being loaded onto ships. The Americans didn’t try to push the issue. They seemed quite happy to take some pictures from the air and basically take the Russians word for it. Why would they accept that? Well possibly because they knew there never had been any nuclear weapons in Cuba in the first place?
So in this guy’s opinion, the whole thing was a colossal bluff by both sides and they both understood that the other guy knew it was; but it suited them both to make the people of the world to think it was a real crisis. After all the Russian, American and Cuban governments all made gains from the Cuban Missile Crisis and none of them lost anything.
Could the Cuban Missile Crisis have been a Russian / American co-operation? A sort of mutually beneficial truce in the Cold War? I think its an interesting theory.