The Dance of the Elephant and the Dragon
In present day Realism,should India align with the US in the Indo-Pacificagainst China? Why or why not? How can smaller powers pursue their interests in the midst of bigger powers?
The theory of realism sets up an anarchic system wherein each State actor has to spend its own resources and apply strategy in order to survive. New ways of soft balancing have emerged in the recent past where smaller states have used economic and diplomatic tools to deter bigger states to exert power and dominance.
India should not side with US to counter China.India falls short on the balance of powers between itself and US. Both of them face a huge power disparity which won’t be in India’s favour as US will get to call out all major shots. Even if the alliance manages to throttle down China’s advances economically and politically, there are huge chances that US gains more via India’s efforts than India does. US gets to maintain its status-quo.
China has made its position in the global economic scenario so well-entrenched that it is impossible for any nation-state to imagine running its economy without China’s presence. India being a developing nation needs the support it can extract from China at this point wherein US even if it wants to pitch in will not be quite as effective as China in aiding India’s market economy.Washington has played fickle with its support to India till now as it is. On more than one issues,between India-China, it has detracted its support to India. Also,the present political climate makes it a risky gamble for India to side with US.
US will not be concerned for the intricate issues India faces with China.It has its own mammoth problems to solve with China, like the massive trade deficit with the country.US alliances have tanked terribly in the recent past. It tried maintaining a partnership with its Pacific allies in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and today that partnership is dead.China already believes that US has self-isolated itself in Asia. It has considerably lost power and clout post the recent Presidential elections and now after withdrawing from the TPP, it has led to a further decline in its position in China’s eyes.India should maintain alliances with powers with whom future negotiation incorporates a larger space for India’s concerns. This will be possible only if India aligns itself with smaller states like Vietnam, Japan,Philippines to counter China
Smaller states have to constantly decide between two stances to bargain for power and voice in the international domain-balancing and bandwagoning. Bandwagoning is where the smaller states align with the larger powers and balancing is where they come together to align against the bigger state. Smaller states think about foreign policy differently than bigger states. Though India has substantial political clout, it is still not a big state in terms of economic or military might like US.Its logic to running relations with China will be more coherent with that of other smaller states. The shelter theory recognizes that smaller states are fundamentally different than bigger states when it comes to decision making in the global platform. Many a times smaller states being more vulnerable take foreign policy decisions not according to their domestic interests but in the larger international interest.
Smaller states coming together will have more collective power and if that is backed by institutional power, it adds to their leverage.In an alliance between a larger and a smaller state,the smaller state needs to have some scarce commodity or service under its control or have high levels of independence over its economic decisions. They need staunch factors on their side to score against the more powerful adversary state.First, social support, then sanctuary (either political or physical), making self-sacrifice seem both noble and necessary and having a strategy to combine all three advantages together.India has neither, w.r.t USA but it can have these factors with other smaller states, turning their negotiations into a success point for itself.
In the existing political-military scenario, smaller states are well aware of the low probability of a bigger state declaring war against them.It is therefore viable to balance against a potential hegemon. US wants to bring back a unipolar global order but secondary powers have to be wary of even a benevolent hegemon and hence engage in collective action and game of coordination to have a sustainable thriving relationship with other secondary powers.India’s alliance with US will almost certainly bring it down to the mere role of a pawn with no strategic advantage to be gained between the tug of war between USA and China. It is better for India to seek alliances worthy of its time and level of negotiating leverage.
