There has been a lot of confusion around the BTC Position Trading Strategy I’ve been offering.
If you don’t know what the heck I’m talking about, check it out here:
Mostly through my own failure on how I presented it. Which resulted in it being perceived as a blatant scam.
Which is understandable.
It does look like one at a first glance.
But it’s not.
I will attempt to explain why in this post.
Why build did I build this strategy?
First of all:
I started building this strategy for myself ONLY. because I’ve identified a couple of leaks in my trading. Those have caused the biggest amount of losses or “missing out on profits” for me in my trading. (More on that in a bit).
That the strategy turned out as profitable as it has been, was somewhat of a coincidence rather than the primary design goal.
Since I put a ton of hard work into this strategy and I’m capitalist (not communitst or socialist — like a bunch of people on Crypto Twitter ), I decided to sell to those who are interested it and face a similar problem as I do.
The Problem it solves:
The problems that initialy got me started developing this framework & strategy were:
- Impatience: I’m often too impatient.
- Bad Trade Management: I too often feel the urge to do something (=Bad Trade management): Closing a trade to early. Trading were I shouldn’t be trading. etc…
- Wrong Directional Bias: I flip my bias to often and to early when I shouldn’t: This results in closing trades in profit way too early. Or stupid trades that are against the trend, trying to short the top.
- Closing Winners To Early: I’m close my trades to early and not to let my winners run long enough during a strong trend.
A great example of these behaviours can be observed on my twitter timeline:
Calling for 3K-ish drop during the early beginnings of the 2018 bear market:
https://twitter.com/SwenLink/status/968875524008357889
And then flipping my bias at the worst time possible instead of sticking to my initial plan. Even though there was no high time frame reason to flip long, yet I did.
https://twitter.com/SwenLink/status/1062703548817903617
This is just one of many times this has happened.
Obviously this applies to the smaller timeframes as well to the bigger timeframes.
The BTC Position Trading Strategy specifically addresses those problem on a very large time frame and avoids sabotaging my trading because of …
- Impatience
- Bad Trade Management
- Wrong Trend Bias
- Closing Winners to early
…by giving me entry/exit signals & clear framework I can execute on. Better than I personally ever could.
This is why I developed the strategy.
Why has the strategy been so profitable?
Fortunately this framework has turned out to be very reliable and profitable.
Even since the very early days of Bitcoin (since 2011 on BLX)!
Take a careful look:
Below I will explain why the returns on the BTC Position Trading Strategy have been so high, to the degree that it looks like a “scam” — even though it’s not.
There are 4 main reasons the BTC Position Trading Strategy has been performing so well:
- High Win Rate
- High Reward/Risk Ratio
- Non-Lagging Framework
- Leverage
Generally speaking profitability of a trading strategy is determined by basically two things:
- Win Rate of Trades
- Avg. Reward/Risk Ratio
The “ideal” strategy has a high win rate as well as a high R/R Ratio.
Both of these values are very high for the BTC Positon Trading Strategy:
- Win Rate: Why is the win-rate so high?
- High Timeframes: First of all this is a position trading strategy meaning it operates on a very high time frame (for crypto). Higher time frames tend to be a lot more reliable/predictable than smaller TFs.
- It’s Picky: The strategy is very selective on trades. It will rather miss out on a trend/trade than force a trade if it doesn’t get near perfect entry conditions. A great example for this is: The strategy ’s bias has been bullish (long-only) since around 5K but it hasn’t gotten into a long yet. Still waiting patiently.
- Directional Bias: It doesn’t try to fight the trend and is long-only during bull markets and short-only during bear markets.
- Wide Stops: The invalidation point for each trade is relatively far away from it’s entry, meaning there is a lot of room for the trade to develop into the right direction. Wide Stop: Less Profit but high Win Rate > Tight Stop: More Profit but lower win rate.
2. Reward/Risk Ratio: Why is the reward/risk ratio so high?
The reason for such a high avg. reward risk ratio is because, there is no initial “Target” for a long positions:
Instead of setting up a take profit target when a long position is opened, it only has a stop loss and keeps the long position running until the bias flips bearish again.
The long-strategy basically takes advantage of BTC’s massive bull runs and tries to close long position relatively close to the high. That way it captures as much profit as possible instead of a predetermined amount.
Here’s an example:
This position trading approach of letting your winners run is the main reason why the net profit on the BTC Position Trading Strategy has been so big.
3. Non-Lagging Framework:
The third reason why the BTC Position Trading Strategy has been so reliable is because: It doesn’t rely on lagging indicators.
Most indicators (e.g. Moving Average) lag because they rely on some sort of data (e.g. closing price) from X number of candles in the past.
This means before the indicator indicates a trend reversal it will take X number of candles. Once a lagging indicator indicates a bearish trend reversal the top and lower high have been established for quite some time ago already.
Since the BTC Position Trading Strategy doesn’t rely on lagging indicators it is able to identify trend reversals and change the directional bias much more quickly (not instantly) than a strategy based on lagging indicators.
I hope this helped clarifying a few things regarding the BTC Position Trading Strategy.
It was a lot of work to develop it. Seeing your “baby” being perceived a blatant “scam” is devastating.
It was my own fault. I was too excited about it. And that excitement wasn’t shared. Which is understandable.
I don’t expect anyone to believe what I’m saying.
I’m not here to convince you. Keep believing what you gotta believe…
Just wanted to state my point of view and why and how I developed this strategy.
If you have any questions regarding the strategy or anything else. My Twitter DMs are always open.
If you want to learn more about the BTC Position Trading Strategy visit:
