Find out good signal to buy and sell Bitcoin by analyzing past movement.

re795h
re795h
Sep 3, 2018 · 2 min read

Is it too late to start investment of Bitcoin?

Unfortunately, the bitcoin price is continuously declining. But it’s nonsense to decide to be late without investigation.
I conducted investigation by analyzing past 6 month price movement. Then I found good sign to buy and sell. As long as you don’t miss the timing to buy or to sell, you can earn profit.


How to analyze

I use major 3 indicators for stack investment technical analycis.

  • Moving Average Deviation Rate
  • RSI
  • Bollinger Band

Based on these indicators, I simulate buy and sell, then calculate the final profit. Finding out the ideal combination of these indicators, changing each value a lit bit. All of process were written as code for creating automated buy and sell system.
Please refer to here. invest-technical-analysis


Step 1: Collect current 6 month price movement

Thanks for this site, we can obtain lots of bitcoin price data and insert to MongoDB.
The time interval of raw data is quite short, then I retrieve 1 hour interval.

node btc-fetch.js

Step 2: Calculate above 3 indicators

Calculate based on following term.

  • 24 hour: I intended fulequent daily base trade.
  • 7 days: I intended shout term weekly base trade.
  • 25 days: I intended log term monthly base trade.
node btc-calculate-indicators.js

The raw result is here. Thanks for IPFS. I can upload free.


Step 3: Simulate buy and sell

The simulate condition is as follow.

  • Start with holding $10000 as capital. Use all when buy btc.
  • Buy or sell at least once in 2 month.
  • Buy case threshold of each indicators is here.
  • Sell case threshold of each indicators is here
node btc-simulate-buy-sell.js

The raw result is here


Step 4: Analyze the result.

The maximum profit is $3356

Buying when 24hour Moving Average Deviation Rate equal is less than -5 and selling when 7day Bollinger Band is grater than 1.

I hound that buying based on deviation rate and selling based on Bollinger Band is seems to be good as the result.


Thank you for reading. Let me apologize my poor English writing.

re795h

Written by

re795h

Japanese software engineer. Like blockchain, sauna and manga.

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