AI Will Replace You, Period. And You Can’t Be Ready

AGI, or Artificial General Intelligence, represents a form of AI that matches or even surpasses human intelligence. In this discussion, when I mention “AI,” I’m referring to this theoretical form of technology, not the current capabilities we see today. Try to set aside any preconceptions based on your interactions with some bots like ChatGPT, which sometimes feels like you are talking to a smarty-pants child. It doesn’t come close to AGI’s potential. AGI would embody a higher level of smartness and awareness akin to a human’s. In addition, it doesn’t sleep, doesn’t eat, and as long as you keep it plugged, doesn’t die. But there is a fatal weakness of AGI; it doesn’t exist and I am not the one who can say if, or when, it will. Then why am I talking about it, right?

Firstly, it is because I have my educated guess that it is pretty much possible which I will elaborate on later. But in addition to that, big companies are investing trillions to turn this concept into reality. This technology has the potential to revolutionize every aspect of society, from labor and education to healthcare and beyond, by vastly outperforming human capabilities in terms of efficiency and possibly creativity. Seeing the race to achieve AGI as the ultimate goal, where the winner takes it all, makes the huge excitement and money big tech is putting into it expected. The bad part is that they are optimistic. The most intelligent brains worldwide are working hard to make it happen. The public began to notice the progress made when they first started having conversations with a computer last year. With the public interest and the resources being poured into it, AGI’s emergence is visualized to be soon. Whether this is an exaggeration or not is not the focus of this article. But instead, I would like to focus on who will be doomed if and when the day comes.

Some Naive Optimism Around AI

People who don’t understand what is happening talk with such optimism: “No, it will not replace you, it will enhance productivity.” “No, it will only replace repetitive tasks,” arguments like that… An AGI, if achieved, will not just assist. It will outperform humans in areas requiring deep technical knowledge and analytical skills. This definition spans any profession that people used to spend their years to learn and specialize, like:

• Data Analysis and Research
• Customer Service
• Healthcare (Doctors, Nurses)
• Education (Tutors)
• Transportation (Drivers)
• Creative Professions (Writers, Composers, Artists, Designers)
• Legal and Financial Services (Paralegals, Lawyers, Financial Advisors)
• Manufacturing and Robotics
• Management and Planning

AGI would mark an unprecedented moment in the universe’s known history, introducing a second form of conscious life capable of complex thought and action from birth. It’s almost like the first contact with extraterrestrial intelligence. So, it is also nonsense to compare its emergence with other turning points like the “Industrial Revolution”. Humanity has never had a superior rival. There is no data about what would happen next, and no one can fully and accurately comprehend the consequences.

The Difference is Creativity. Really is it?

Humans often pride themselves on their imaginative capabilities, but this skill may not be a consequence of a mystery, but a natural result of the increased cognitive capacity. At its core, creativity is about running simulations in our minds, envisioning various scenarios, and determining a course of action. This ability to foresee and plan against potential dangers has been a key factor in humanity’s success over millennia. This also helped us to invent tools and make art.

Yet, the idea that only humans can achieve this level of creative thinking is being challenged. OpenAI is working on training AI to simulate the world in complex ways. Their latest model, dubbed SORA, is even referred to as a world simulator. This development hints at a future where Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could easily replicate, if not surpass, the human capability for simulation and creativity. Can you see where this is heading?

A Potential Scenario

I believe that the emergence of AGI’s first version will trigger a self-inducing loop whose impact will escalate exponentially. The first version of AGI could potentially take the next step: creating and refining its next generations and designing robotic systems to enhance their mobility. And while the fear of AI turning against humans (a scenario I believe is preventable) is common, let’s consider a situation where AI remains under control. In such a world, why would companies need humans? Essentially, a company’s goal is to grow its resources, and in a landscape dominated by ultra-efficient AI, humans could be seen as mere consumers of resources rather than contributors.
This perspective foretells a power shift, with current capital holders strengthening their position, leaving the broader society more dependent and vulnerable. It hints at a breakdown of the social contract: a diminished need for human labor leads to reduced income, culminating in a society where people depend more on government support, while governments and corporations exchange resources amongst themselves. The emergence of AGI marks the end of an era. Predicting the specifics of what follows is challenging without venturing into wild speculation. However, it’s clear that the next phase will be fundamentally different from anything we’ve known before.

Why This Is Not A Fad

In recent years, we’ve seen many “Next Big Things” — Web3, Blockchain, the Metaverse, self-driving cars, flying taxis, and more. Yet, many of these have not fully materialized, whether due to the initial hype not being justified or because current technology hasn’t advanced enough for their widespread adoption. But, I believe, AI is different.

AI enables computers to perform other tasks that they could not able to perform with previous methods. So, it is not new or fundamentally different. It is an advancement of an existing thing.

Is the science enough to achieve a human-level intelligence? I can’t say it is or it is not because it is not my field of expertise. But I can say that the mechanism that AI uses is the very same mechanism in which the Universe is formed: “‘Things that exist’ exist because they were able to keep existing until now.” This phrase is another expression of “Natural Selection” that I came up with and it makes perfect sense to me. Yes, AI scientists use this fundamental mechanism to create a positive feedback loop where the system only advances toward the goal. The ability to assess a trial’s success toward the goal is one of the most fundamental challenges in the field. But, the data is there. We have been uploading it every day for a couple of decades. The processing power is getting there and theory is advancing very fast. So I don’t see any caveat in the way.

I believe that AI has proven to be a practically useful technology that will revolutionize fields that touch daily life. So I don’t think it is a fad.

Conclusion

Yes, you will be replaced if AGI is the case. This is unless you are a small portion of society who has already got enough money to sustain a good life without working (since there is nothing to replace) or have one of the few remaining jobs that AGI won’t directly affect. But, I don’t think anyone’s life will be not affected by the long-term consequences that will come after AGI.