America’s century of disastrous mass transit policy is about to look smart.
How 100 years of dangerous underinvestment will end up paying off for the next generation
I grew up in California and accepted the automobile as the only way to get around. That’s because it was the only transit option available. During my teenage years I recall half my income went to paying for an old car, the insurance, gas, and upkeep. Still, I loved the freedom of driving at the time and couldn’t imagine anything else. That was my way of life.
It wasn’t until I lived in London for 6 years and spent substantial time in the EU that I realized what I was missing. We paid a huge price for prioritizing the automobile in the United States over the last 100 years. That cost will ironically turn into a massive bonus for the next generation. Before we look at the unexpected upside let’s take a brief glance at the staggering cost of the uniquely American transit disaster of the last century.
We started with rail
America was a pioneer of mass transit in the late 1800's early 1900's with comparable and at times superior rail service to Europe. The benefits were huge, increasing the movement of people and goods tremendously helped our quality of life and economy. The beauty of rail was that it quickly became egalitarian and open to all who could buy a ticket. It was efficient. Time could be well spent while in transit. It was relatively inexpensive. And it was cleaner.
Choosing the automobile
The automobile quickly gained popularity through the 20's and 30's. It made a lot of sense for rural America. That wasn’t enough for GM, Standard Oil, or Firestone. Between 1938 and 1950 through a grand conspiracy they managed to tear out the mass transit of over 25 major American cities tipping the balance towards the automobile as the primary mode of urban transport for the next 100 years.
The other path
Charting a dramatically different course Europe and Japan doubled down on rail and even today spend 6x more of their gdp on rail than the U.S. Add India, Russia, and Turkey to the long list of countries that invest more in rail than we do. The result is you can get around these countries more quickly, safely, cheaply, and efficiently by rail. If you want to go across the UK, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, etc. you can hop on a 200mph fast train for a fraction of our airfare or car cost. So we use cars. Did it matter?
The direct cost
I’ll admit car culture and the feeling of freedom has its benefits. Yet it comes with substantial costs. Cars are expensive. According to the AAA annual survey the average driver running 10,000 miles per year in a small sedan will spend $5,968 per year or 59.7 cents per mile yet the average American driving more than this spends over $9,100 per year on their car. In other modern countries that money saved by mass transit would serve a better purpose such as paying for healthier food, education, or better health.
Human tragedy
Cars aren’t safe, especially in the United States. I was risking my life far more than if I were taking mass transit to school. Automobile related fatalities per capita in the United States are 3x that of Great Britain and tied with Jamaica and Bangladesh. Even the insane mountain road culture of Greece and Turkey is statistically safer than the United States. Driving is the leading cause of American teenage deaths with around 5,000 fatalities each year and 400,000 ending up in hospital annually. The human and economic costs are staggering.
Our environment
Cars pollute. They are the single largest contributor to global warming. And that was before China went bananas on car culture. And yea you guessed it, cars pollute a lot more in the US @ 268.5 g/km vs 14.3 g/km in Europe and 130.8 g/km in Japan. Not to mention we spend a lot more time in cars since we don’t have any rail.
Time & traffic
The average American spends 101 minutes per day commuting in their car. That’s a staggering 37,935 hours in a lifetime. It’s over 1/3 of the time we spend working. We spend 38 hours per year in traffic with a cost of over 121 billion dollars per year. On traffic. Which is more than the gdp of most countries.
We are missing out today but it’s about the future
Add all this up and imagine the cost of your next auto commute all together. Then imagine all the Europeans and Japanese people enjoying their morning paper and using their time productively while on their inexpensive clean safe efficient rail commute. Our underinvestment in rail cost us our time, money, environment, and considering traffic, our sanity. We can’t change the past and we shouldn’t be chasing history to try and catch up. This would be rather depressing if it weren’t for a surprisingly bright future ahead. It turns out our reliance on the car uniquely positions us to move them forward. In the near future we can get most of the benefits of rail for free and lead the world in modern transport benefiting economically along the way.
The electric car is going mainstream
Because we are so invested in the automobile and beholden to the companies that produce them we are more driven to push them forward. Cars will likely reach a tipping point where they will move to electric in mass and become cheap. This may happen more quickly than we expect. Electric cars are simpler in design with far fewer components and moving parts. They are primarily an electronic device that can benefit with price declines at scale. They are cheaper to maintain and run. They are better for the environment and this is becoming ever more critical.
Inexpensive electric cars will indeed address the pollution concerns. When coupled with solar generated power they will become as clean as rail. This will also make them even cheaper to operate, saving on fuel costs.
Cars will become autonomous
The benefits of autonomous cars will be dramatic in America. Recall that we spend roughly 1/3 of our working time in our auto commute. It’s insane when you consider it. That’s why autonomous cars technology has massive energy behind it. Google, Apple, Tesla, Ford, Audi, Mercedes, Uber, and others are working tirelessly to improve the self-driving car.
It’s gonna save lives
Autonomous cars are moving at a pace faster than anyone expected. Tesla has already started shipping cars that can manage the freeway. Self driving trucks are already being tested. When these are ready for mainstream use they will be safer than human driven cars today.
Insurance costs will decline
American’s spend over 220 billion dollars per year on auto insurance. Autonomous cars will save on insurance costs. It will also avoid an incredible amount of human tragedy. Your 16 year old kids will be able to safely traverse the American suburb.
You will have your 37,935 hours back
You won’t look so wasteful in your autonomous car. They will be Internet connected, with places to work, read, and enjoy your commute. Not to mention traffic will be alleviated with machines negotiating traffic more efficiently and handling the parking for you as well.
America gets the benefits of rail with out the cost
At this point Americans will have most of the benefits of rail from autonomous cars. Europe and Japan will be sitting on massive legacy rail infrastructure maintenance costs keeping their people from being able to afford autonomous cars as widely, giving the edge to the American market and companies.
Over 100 years of American pain created by poor judgement will end up looking very smart indeed.
