Covid-19 — SEIRS & Social Distancing

Source : CDC

Corona Virus is on top of everyone’s mind. This is certainly an unprecedented time where we are facing something which feels un-real. I feel we are living in a movie.

In this post I want to emphasize the importance of “Social Distancing” using SEIRS modeling technique. Epidemiologists have been using these techniques and more for some what accurate or ball park forecasting. I will share my code for the basic SEIRS model and parameters that I have used. I would like to learn from you what parameters are you using to make our predictions accurate.

Institute of Disease modeling has provided information on their site on the various epidemiological models and state charts along with it.

Source: https://idmod.org/

Where :

• The infectious rate, β, controls the rate of spread which represents the probability of transmitting disease between a susceptible and an infectious individual.
• The incubation rate, σ, is the rate of latent individuals becoming infectious (average duration of incubation is 1/σ).
• Recovery rate, γ = 1/D, is determined by the average duration, D, of infection.
• For the SEIRS model…