What have Trump and Sanders done for turnout in the 2016 primary elections?

Too many times has the complaint be made that politicians are all the same, with candidates standing for the same policies no matter what party they belong to. The 2016 presidential race, however offers something new to the electorate. The prospect of Donald Trump, a man who says it as it is, has been a delight or fright to everyone. And on the other extreme, Bernie Sanders, who stands up to big business corporations and banks, might be one of the most radical politician the millennials have seen quickly rise to power in America. Not only are there clear distinctions between the Democrats and the Republicans, but the in-party battle for presidential nomination has been fierce, with clear ideological difference between Clinton and Sanders, and Cruz and Trump. But will this diversification of American politics be enough to encourage young voters, and the rest of Texas, to leave their houses and vote?

For an established democracy, voter turnout in the United States has always been rather low . Texas is no exception to this rule , and in fact has had some of the lowest turnout rates in the country over the last 40 years. Whilst turnout at Presidential elections has hovered at around 55% on a national level and 45% in Texas, participation in the party primaries is drastically lower. In 1972 only 1.47% of the voting age population voted in the Republican primaries. This figure has improved marginally in the last 40 year, with turnout in Republican primaries averaging at 5.8%, and Democrats achieving a slightly higher average turnout of 12.3%.

Young adult voters seem to follow the national trend in the presidential elections, with a voter turnout just under the national average. In 2008 51% of voters aged 18–29 voted in the general election, in 2012 this fell to 45%. In 2008, Obama famously managed to excite younger voters, where we witnessed the highest voter turnout in decades. Whilst Obama saw personal success again four years later, it was not the doing of the younger voters, which returned to the historic norm of low turnout.

Whilst Hillary Clinton won the democratic primary, an exit poll by the Texas Politics Project shows that 61.9% of voters aged 18–29 in Texas support Sanders for president . On the other end of the scale however, Trump did not win the hearts of the electoral youth, only winning over 9.68%.

Interestingly when we look at whether voters had voted in a Democratic primary before, it seems as though Sanders has bought people to the polls. 58% of first time votes in the Texas democratic primaries voted for Sanders, compared to only 38% voting for Clinton . We can observe two types of first time voters: one group who have only turned 18 in the last 4 years, and so this is their first opportunity to vote in a primary with a presidential candidate. The second type of voters are those who have had the chance to vote in the primaries before, but have never bothered doing so until now. Sanders has engaged younger voters, and older voters who until now haven’t cared who wins the nomination.

Not only has Sanders gained the support of new young voters, but unsurprisingly he also has the vote of people who wouldn’t traditionally align themselves as a Democrat. 75% of voters who identify as a democrat voted for Clinton. She is the safer, less exiting option representing the status quo It is unsurprising then that the majority of voters who have no party affiliation or independents, voted for Sanders.

On the Republican side however, it seems that the incumbent senator Ted Cruz was the most popular with younger voters in Texas. A closer look at Trump’s support indicates that no one age group favours him more than another. Trump unites support from all age groups. His support comes from not only those who are angry at the current way or government runs the country, as is the case with Sanders, but with all politicians in general . A New York Times exit poll found that 45% if republican voters want a president from outside the political establishment, and of those 61% voted for Trump.

Analysis from the Pew research Center shows us that after a significant fall in turnout at primaries in 2012, it looks to be back up to a high level again. With overall turnout from the states included, at 29%. Turnout at Republican primary elections has been around 17%.

The presence of Trump in the Republican race has clearly attracted those from outside the normal sphere of politics. But equally with the high number of candidates originally in the race, he faced a lot of opposition which resulted in people specifically voting against him. Whilst the competition has been fierce between Sanders and Clinton, the turnout in the Democratic primaries is slightly lower, at 11.7%. Many of supporters of Sanders, as we have seen are independent voters, but have been restricted from voting in many of the closed elections. He and Clinton provide interesting alternatives to the status quo, which has helped increase the turnout. But without the outrageousness of the Republican’s campaign’s the media coverage has been somewhat sensational.

For both Sanders and Trump, the current political system is failing the people of America. They offer the chance for change that neither Clinton nor Cruz has the vision for. Whether one agrees with either of their policies or not, it is clear that they have given millions of Americans a voice on a very noisy platform.

With the presumptive candidate of Trump and either Democratic candidate Sanders or Clinton, being quite starkly contrasted, we can expect this media following to continue into the main race. Hopefully this will also translate in a higher voter turnout in the General Election in the fall.