2008 Obama Says Hillary Can’t Win 2016

Also see my 2016 Trump vs. Clinton predictions and Sanders vs. Trump predictions at: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qjPbrEi8QWCB_XjsJpeZxtJrkZy9L4Cv-30kbVYeFb4/

2008 was an amazing Obama victory, can Hillary repeat it? First, the Dems had an astounding 35.2 million voters in the 2008 primary season that translated into 66.6 million in the general. By comparison, the Reps had only 20 million, but edged up significantly in the general, to 58.1 million. It was almost close in the end. Today, with six states left, the Dems have 23 million and the Reps 25.8 million. It’s even, Steven, and Hillary is in the hole already. Six months from now, she would need 51% of independent votes, people who did not vote yet, just to break even with Trump. How did Obama do with independents? He lost badly. He only had 43.4% to the Reps 56.6%. If you think Hillary can claw back 7–10% points, plus the 7% points Obama lost in 2008, I don’t know what to say, you are dreaming, it’s just too wide a chasm. First, She’s got to win back Sanders supporters first, and then convince white male Trump supporters to vote for her. Women’s Card? Try White Male Card, less of a ring to it, but hate to say, it’s selling just as well.

Now what did Obama do with this massive lead out of the primary season? Mostly he pissed it down the toilet on southern states but had three amazing holds and three decisive flips. (Of course, no one likes to mention that Hillary’s strength, the South, will also go down the toilet in a general.) To give you an example, the 2008 Dems had leads out of the primaries in Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia. Obama lost all of those states, as we expect. Remember, Hillary is down overall out of the gates. Do you really think she can turn those states blue by miracle, even if she trounced Sanders there?

Another example of the advantage of having a strong party lead out of the gate. Obama flipped Florida, Michigan, and New Hampshire! He lost all those states to Hillary, and the GOP had more primary voters in those states, but because the party unified around him, he beat John McCain in the general. Will HIllary have the party unity she needs to flip states? The Dems are behind this year in not New Hampshire, but in yes, in Florida, Michigan, and Ohio. Michigan is close, but Ohio and Florida? They are in the hole by around a MILLION votes in each state. Not even Bernie can beat Trump in a general in Ohio and Florida. (But Sanders can win overall.)

Lastly we must talk about 2008’s results in Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio. Out of the primary season, Obama had massive leads in those states. But come November, the independent vote took a sharp hard turn to red. In fact, the independent voters went for McCain 91.3% in Indiana, 73.8% in North Carolina, and 78.1% in Ohio. Still, Obama won those states. This is his coup de gras, a masterpiece, this is being dealt perfect cards. Again, only possible because he had a massive bulwark to start with. Hillary cannot do anything like this, it’s impossible. Do you know why? Because Obama could not do the same hat trick himself in 2012. He lost Indiana and North Carolina, but kept Ohio. Plus Hillary has no lead to begin with. She’s losing and will only lose more. It’s a terrible awful scenario for Hillary Clinton.

So to recap, Obama won 2008 because he flipped Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire. And he held Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio. Six states, that’s all it was, despite having 15.2 million vote count lead in June 2008. My predictive models show that Trump will handily beat Clinton, every one of my models. But my other models, all of them, show that Sanders beats Trump by even more than Trump beats Clinton. You are crazy not to run with Bernie Sanders. I have done the math and modeling in many ways. It is just not possible Hillary fans. The only hope to defeat Trump is to run with Bernie Sanders and I’ve already proven that. When will you Hillary fans ever listen to logic?

Election Data various wikipedia and Real Clear Politics

Data is at: https://docs.google.com/a/tikeda.com/spreadsheets/d/1r_U7ByaGlbASURAxdfB9fXd9z9rOOtMsplbwVBL0zCM/