Pre-Poll Analysis of UP Elections

6th February

Chennai : With no party starting as clear favourite, the Uttar Pradesh election promises to be an absolute humdinger. There is a lot at stake in these elections. The mere existence of Bahujan Samaj Party and Mayawati is on the line, the image of Narendra Modi post demonetization is at stake and it is a litmus test for the Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav after the feud within the Samajwadi party.

BSP

In the high decibel BJP and Samajwadi Party tussle, the BSP has gone about its job slowly and steadily. Party has not been in limelight and this is the reason it isn’t being considered as a favourite. After their dismal performance in 2014 Lok Sabha, Mayawati dissolved all the BSP units and ordered their reconstitution with at least half of them youths. Younger party workers were appointed presidents in most districts, with the average age 35.

Vaibhav Dikshit, a resident of Uttar Pradesh said “Mayawati is relying a lot on Dalit-Muslim votes, Dalits form nearly 22 per cent of UP’s population and in all possibility most of them will vote for BSP but BSP can’t win these elections only on the basis of Dalit votes”.

“In 2007 elections BSP came into power because of Dalit-Upper caste combination and in 2017 it is looking for Dalit- Muslim amalgamation to work. This is the reason they have given close to hundred tickets to Muslim candidates, its highest ever” he added.

Samajwadi Party

Historically, the SP has grown by substantially eating into the Congress minority support base. In the post-Babri mosque demolition phase, Muslims deserted the Congress and went towards SP in 1993. Since then Congress has found it tough to come even close to triple figure in the assembly elections.

Aradhana Kalia, a resident of Noida said “this alliance between SP and Congress will unite Muslims in favour of an anti-BJP formation and supplement Samajwadi Party’s Yadav vote bank”.

“The advantage of alliance is that Congress is likely to get the votes of Yadav’s and Muslims on 103 seats in which it is contesting and Samajwadi party will get the votes of a section of upper caste on 297 seats that they are contesting on”

Bhartiya Janta Party

After the annihilation in Delhi and Bihar, BJP is desperate to leave a mark in UP elections and before the SP-Congress alliance it looked in a strong position. However, the alliance has changed permutation and combination of these elections and Amit Shah, the party President and mastermind of 2014 Lok Sabha elections will be a worried man .

Konark Ratan, a resident of Gonda in UP said “BJP won 72 seats in the lok sabha elections because the upper caste and the major section of OBC’s voted for it. It needs the same combination to work again however Lok Sabha elections and Assembly elections are different proposition all together and in 2014 Modi wave was prevalent. Many people voted for BJP only because of Narendra Modi which is unlikely to happen in the assembly election and BJP don’t have a prominent face to project” .

Opinion Polls-

The average of opinion polls conduct by India Today- Axis, Times Now-VMR, ABP news- Lokniti, VDP Associates and The Week-Hansa Research predicts that no party attains the clear majority. The average of five surveys give maximum number of seats to BJP which is 182, it gives SP-Congress alliance 164 seats and BSP only 50 seats.

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