Lost 2 Months: How I Failed to React Unpredictable Health Meltdown
I met unpredictable health meltdown and failed to react it in this May. I had suspended activity for two months because of bad pneumonia and food poisoning, though I had many options to minimize a loss. The sudden meltdown heavily affected the startup I have been running since last autumn. I decided to let readers know my failure as punishment to myself, and sharing of knowledge for people who want to be ready for unpredictable clash.
I made big efforts to make the story not boring. In this fantastic story, funny guys like Dragon Ball Z’ s Ginyu force Stirred the thread of fate. I tried to jump over the high barriers of the pharmaceutical industry like a ninja, in order to get Indian antibiotics via Singapore. I doubt the possibility that the world is a simulation from monitoring the green algae that comes out from my mouth. Finally, I had deep insight on the strategy that entrepreneurs should take against this super complex world, with refferncing Nassim Taleb’s books.
Beginning of the Beginning
When I came down with a cough first week in May, I wasn’t too concerned — I assumed that I had simply caught a cold, the same cold which all the people in Tokyo caught. I had a lot of things to do at that time. I wanted to improve programming skill to build a new product. I spent 2 months to restructuring my project and I was sure that I found the way to grow my project into next phase.
I was so motivated and pressured as most of entrepreneurs were so. I was planning to fundraise after making minimal level business news web app and testing how users react. I had already run tech news website and YouTube channel since last November, and several metrics showed bright future of my product (News app sounds very old fashioned, but it needs to be improved drastically in Google, Facebook, Donald Trump, far right politicians in Europe, Shinzo Abe and fake news era).
Money, money money…. External investors was the most important factors for us at that time. I was extremely confident what I am about to make. “If the project received healthy and sufficient funding, it could skyrocket” I thought(I still consider like this). I tried to fundraise before kickstart the project, 4th quarter of 2017. Negotiating investors let me know its game-theory-like characteristics and that “theoretically collect” is not necessary collect. I considered several strategies on its “game’ and concluded that my cards(project) was very weak at that time, could not expect to build equilibrium toward investors and reach subsequent cooperation . Some angels showed interest inject fund into the project, but we did not agree with share they want to take. I withdraw quickly. I focused on developing the product.
Four months later, the project was similar to rocket waiting for fulfilling fuel, I was insanely in a hurry(“I wanna win! I wanna win!”). But this mentality invited me to a string of bad decisions definitely. I quit some favorable routines such as regularly exercising at gym and weekend marathon, pouring whole of time I had into learning programming and computer science. My diet was getting worse gradually. I lost appetite little by little.
The Beginng: Battle against “Ginyu Force”
The beginning of the tragedy is tough fight with the most ridiculous collective in this space, “Ginyu Force”. I attended the party with old acquaintances at the end of April. I was so tired because of lack of sleep, though. I met old acquaintances that we know each other at internship of some publishing company, and they are called “Ginyu Force”. They are working for the several Japanese traditional companies, all of them has been losing prestige. Generally, the companies have experienced peak in 1980s(“Japan as №1” era) and now long term market cap decline reflecting tough competition in global market, low productivity in stiffening bureaucratic organization, and sharp decline technology expertise and practice.
“Does your project make any revenue? hahaha” “We doubt that your company accomplish IPO, you cannot run business without yielding any revenue hahaha“ They made fun of my project with a lovely teamwork. What they said was extremely rude, but their attitude was not aggressive. It was typically Japanese-like, and very confusing for me, though I grew up in Japan. I interpreted their series of soft attacks, as that they wanted to say ”We are belonging to higher class in Japanese society and you, startup guy, belongs to slavary class. Knee and lick my shoes, stupid!” This was challenge I faced with so many times when I talked with a business person working for traditional Japanese companies.
Average Japanese business person usually look down on tech startup. They hate tech company, software engineers, computer science, multiple core processor, flash memory, solid state drive, blue LED, ES cell and long cricket game. Circumstance tend to form their characteristics in Humanity. Member of Ginyu Force had been educated to obey everything authority required without considering whether it is good or bad by theirselves. Japanese companies take people’s dignity from their hands through exploiting “reward and punishment” method. Punishment works very well for the Japanese, who are programmed to obey authority. Reward is relatively modest. They are satisfied with the fact that he/she work for big traditional company, which guaranteed their position and reputation in the society. Company is one of the most powerful authority Japanese people can’t resist.
While they believe in potential Big Brother, I believe in “Self Sovereignty”. I want to keep holding my basic human rights, especially Freedom, in my own hand but I might be very minority in Japan.
I adopted lightning strike anyway. I said “You are making fun of me, it is quite rude. I am taking much bigger risk than you. The game I am palying is 100x harder than your are playing(just being a slave game). So if my startup succeed to build fantastic value for the people, What you can do for me?”
Surprisingly, they surrendered suddenly. Too quick. They pretended to apologize to me with very fuzzy words(Some people use this technique….). It was so disappointing. I missed to suggest an interesting suggestion. “If my project succeed, you need to realize my desire. Each of You guys borrows 5 million yen(roughly $50,000) from super-high-interest money lender(interest rate is averagely 10% per 10 days…Of course, Yakuza run the business.).”
“You guys throw 5 million yen out from top of Godzilla monument(height: 52 meter) at Kabukicho, Shinjuku(craziest place in Tokyo) when Godzilla cry at 7 pm. People must go mad for catching money and think ‘Godzilla threw up a lot of money! It must be gift to people!!’ ”
I tried to dispute with them and leave the party immediately, but I couldn’t leave the party eventually. I decided to keep courtesy to my old acquaintance. Ginyu Force seemed to want to force me drink a lot. I drank a lot. I also forced them to drink. I was so frustrated with what Ginyu Force said to me until the last second. I got quite drunk. I pulled a bicycle and walked home. I felt catching cold. I didn’t think it is serious. This was an entrance of hell as I look back now….
Hack Medical Industry
I felt uncomfortable at my lung next morning but it didn’t hurt. I started to cough a few days later. Coughing was getting to worse little by little. I did not feel like eating anything and I could not concentrate on works. I was convinced that it was just a cold, though there are a number of illnesses that look like colds but are actually something more severe. I took cough syrup, cough medicine and traditional Chinese medicine. I thought this is enough to cure the symptom.
I was stupidly aggressive. I revived a routine I dismissed once; weekend running. Actually I could not run because of coughing, so I walked 30 km on each of Saturday and Sunday. This was effective accelerator of situation. I got a fever next week.
It was time to see a doctor, but I had a problem; I did not extend national health insurance when I quit a job in September 2017, since I had been planning to found company and adding me to national health insurance. However, I judged to postpone talk with VCs or Angels as I explained, and halted registering a company. So, I was outside of national health insurance.
I had two options. (1) See a doctor, spending bunch of money, (2) Self treatment or (3)Hacking medical industry. Hacking medical industry??? It sounds very cool. I decided to do this. I guessed world-fastest-aging society really need this approach.
Unsustainable Health Care Insurance System
Why the medical industry need to be hacked? Because current system can’t be unsustainable. There is three factors. First, Insurance system is losing a lot of money every year. Japanese health insurance works as an effective support for the people. The system considered to be more comprehensive and better than those of most developed countries(except for some European countries).
Roughly explaining, the system owe 70% of total cost for treatment and medicine that patients have to pay. Additionally it cover around 100% cost on expensive medical treatment like surgery. My mother had a surgery for liver cancer two years ago and it cost so expensive, but my mother paid only a small treatment fee thank to the insurance. This is incredible. I appreciate the insurance, saving my mother.
The aging Japanese society generally love the system, but this isn’t supposed to last for a long time. It is certain that the insurance system is exploited by the medical industry under unfavorable conditions. The people are consuming a large amount of medical services the industry design to be expensive, and the majority of their expenses are imposed on the government. The government inject budget to the system every year but it is collapsed already. Additionally, the government is suffering from a terrible level of debt, equivalent to 253 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product(GDP) in 2017.
Second, lack of doctor is super severe. Most of medical institution is suffering from its deficiency, so they solved the problem with very Japanese way: hard work….Doctors in their late twenties are forced to work overtime 85 hours a month averagely addition to their usual work time, that is very harmful for their health. Aging society will increase number of patients every year. While government solve this problem with increasing number of doctor, this solution is not the solution. Patients is like Hamsters bleeding a new life in a day, but increasing number of doctors is like bleeding elephants. So we can imagine that number of hamsters will overwhelm elephants unfortunately.
Third, lack of availability in vital medicines. In Japan, people can not get many kinds of medicines without prescription of a doctor. Even if the patient just has a very mild symptom, patient is obliged to be advised what medicine is applied by doctor. This can cause the situation that low-income people not belonging to the Insurance can not access basic medicines like antibiotics. Also this increases expense paid by both of patient and insurance. The industry succeeded to prevent usage of most of generics in Japan, fixing medical expenditure expensive.
Background is that doctors, medical institutions, pharmaceutical companies have mutually beneficial relationship and works as powerful interest group with strong influence to policy maker. Political party can't deny what the interest group decide actually.
Some might point that medical treatment in Japan is not necessary expensive compared with the other countries. That is right. The US is typical example. However, Japan can make it much cheaper even under current conditions with existing solutions. Don’t forget Japan create Kaizen culture.
Democratization of Healthcare
Losing bunch of money, lack of human resources, super aging society and potential barrier for low income people…Japanese medical industry must be revolutionized immediately. I read series of articles by The Economist on future of healthcare. This gave me very interesting suggestion.
- “A revolution in health care is coming”
- “Apple and Amazon’s moves in health signal a coming transformation”
- “A new sort of health app can do the job of drugs”
The future of healthcare is that individuals adopt self-medical based on real time health data obtained from so many kinds of sensors. You will rarely take medicine after you know you are sick. You will usually prevent various potential of sickness before it emerge. Certainly, there are accidents, incidents and sudden infection etc. Future medical will need to provide emergent treatment, but this progressive health care can cut bunch of cost. It would help over 5 billion people in emerging countries who can’t access to modern medical treatment. They just buy smartphone and use a various kind of apps, this could be a vital safety-net.
I believe that super low cost health care can be sustainable as well-designed BPO business in emerging countries. Internet is a necessary condition. Emerging country build powerful wireless network. I think connectivity is the most effective welfare policy in the countries economy. It is time to say goodbye toward 20 century welfare country model and standard approach in development economics. Development economics has an old fashion part. The knowledge has been built, based on experiences developed countries had in 19th or 20th century. lessons from various trial and error are useful, but it is not panacea.
If we have sufficient data, we can have better measure to make emerging countries rich. The journey has just begun to discover the most effective for the situation the countries faced with. Human just experience one reality among so many possibilities in search tree.
Now biggest factor changing circumstance is the internet. More and more people are having “high performance computer”(mobile) in their hand, and millions of computers is connected to the internet. People can enjoy powerful computer clusters existing physically distant from them anytime unless connectivity is stable. So I think every emerging countries should bed on connectivity.
Machine Learning(ML) is not only frontier of computing but also frontier of health care. ML can extend doctor’s ability. DeepMind’s health care unit “DeepMind Health” is trying to apply machine learning to mammography screening for breast cancer. Parent company of Deepmind, Google also explore opportunity to apply genomics and ophthalmology field.
Tactic of Guerrilla Warfare
I decided to practice self-medical by myself based on poor knowledge. It is like guerrilla warfare under current Japanese health care system.I was presuming the disease was viral pneumonia. It is a disease that is easily worsened by misunderstanding as a cold. My symptom was coincident with that. Antibiotics are favorable to cure them, but it needs doctor’s prescription, Chinese wall was built by medical interest group.
I wanted to find a loophole of the system and found it soon. Some web page say that I can import generics manufactured in Oversea like India through the professional importers. There is no legal risk for me. Even if there is a risk, importers owe it. Sound awesome. I checked several kinds of antibiotics on the webpage, but every antibiotics strongly suggested the effect on sexually transmitted diseases. I got disappointed and closed the webpage. I checked the other websites on purchasing the antibiotics in Tokyo, but search result always showed me effectiveness to sexually transmitted diseases.
It was very strange. I wish I had consider on the background deeply, but at that time I was so tired due to the desease, so I quitted my exploring. I had been dependent on cough medicine, antipyretics, nutritional drinks, and Chinese traditional medicine, but I could not see the signal of recovery. Unfortunately, I still thought it was not critical since I was used to facing serious health condition and believed I can handle it.
Insane Experience Distorted Decision
I was nearly dead in Indonesia about 7 years ago. I was suffer from dangerous stage of the cecum, almost getting to peritonitis. Peritonitis meant I would be dead, with tendency of “the longer the time to surgery, the higher the mortality rate”.
However, prestigious doctors at Pertamina Hospital(Rumah Sakit Pusat Pertamina) suspected the possibility of my HIV infection, from the prejudice that the Japanese business person are having unfaithfully intercorse with so many indonesian women. I conveyed to them that my lower abdomen is hurting, it might be disease at organs like stomach or colon. Unfortunately they ignored it completely and didn’t make any treatment for two days after my hospitalization. Some creative doctor said to me “Be careful when you are having fan!” and burst out laughing.
There was only one decent physician alone, he examined me with CT and finally diagnosed that I was a cecum. Sadly the surgical doctor was not him. The surgery was the wildest in the world. My abdomen was cut vartically about 20 centimeter. It was like Seppuku(Japanese ritual suicide by disembowelment) exactly. The suture was too dirty. I guessed that five years old kids can do better than it.
The problem was not solved, but accelerated. Seppuku part reopened in 10 days and forced to have 2nd surgery. I usually had a fever of over 40 degrees and suffering from a nightmare where I was killed by somebody. Due to a mistake during the Seppuku surgery, ocher-colored water containing a large amount of Tuberculosis virus was left on my back. I was stabbed with a needle of the same thickness as the iron chopsticks of a Korean restaurant. Indonesian doctors stab and pull out the water. It was insanely painful. doctors tried to makes me laugh joking on Toyota, Honda and Kawasaki(might be only one topic they had on Japan). Anyway I survived and recovered so much that I can explain Sumo to the other patients watching NHK, Japanese National broadcast.
This hospital succeeded to let former indonesian president Suharto die. I survived from severe attack by the hospital, so I might have a potential to become much more powerful dictator than Suharto.
Search Result Bias and Buying Antibiotic Through Importer
While I visited the importer’s website again, and learned what the medicine I wanted is made up of, how it works toward virus, and its side effect. Meek, Indian Generic of Clarithromycin, works not only for sexually transmitted diseases, but also for various kind of symptoms, including viral pneumonia.
I guessed the Japanese are habitual to receive antibiotics at hospitals. However, they are too embarrassed to go doctor when they have sexually transmitted diseases. So they purchase antibiotics from importers without meeting anybody. Probably the majority of importers’ antibiotic sales are brought about by them. Importers are targeting majority and don’t pay attention for person like me.
Additionally, it might means some search engine has judged location data as a important context of my searching. I live relatively near Shinjuku JR station. 20 minutes walking take me to Kabukicho which is the most insane place in Japan. The majority of searchers for antibiotics around the location might considered to be sexual diseases holder. A search engine might show me result based on the data Kabukicho people made. There is no evidence on this, but it is an interesting presume.
Antibiotics with Love
I bought Meek. The Importer said it took a week to transport from Singapore. I read an article telling that some Mycoplasma is tolerant to Clarithromycin 4 days before Meek came. It said that when mycoplasma express its tolerance to the antibiotic, doctors prescribe two other kind of antibiotics: Tetracycline and New Quinolone antibiotics. I checked the Importer’s website and they sold them. I bought them immediately in order to avoid a worst scenario that Meek, the copy of Clarithromycin don’t work, and I need to wait for a week to import medicines without any options.
One week was very long for me. I had had fever for 2–3 weeks, and been losing energy gradually. I hoped that Meek solve the problem immediately. It was like a player, I was still concern of delay of startup project. Me, only one resource of the project lost its work. The project was nearly dead. I knew I didn’t handle this chaotic situation, this fact make me frustrated.
I asked friends and relatives consultation on my situation, but tragically, I accidentally faced with discrimination toward Asian people, average Japanese people unconsciously hold in their mind(Japanese are also Asian, though). Some friends said to me “You brought bad bacteria from Indonesia”, but it was 3 years ago that I came back to Japan from Indonesia. Some relative said “Indian people who stayed in Japan as Yoga instructor doesn’t have enough money to have medical care. He got sick, and finally died. You are in the same situation, so you should be careful” What a Heck! There was absolutely no essential detail in the story. The words stuck in ignorance, arrogance, and rudeness. Miserably, this is average idea of Japanese people. I am so concerned of those idea people grow inside society and TV program repeatedly that imprint wrong information in people’s subconscious mind.
Meek didn’t work as a result. I couldn’t judge its effect quickly since I really wanted to be cured. There was 4 days for the other antibiotics coming. Fever was always over 39 degree celsius, Cough never stop even a few second in a day. I read several papers on Mycoplasma respecting for The Art of War by Sun Tzu.
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
I understood that I caught disease hard to treat. Papers said Mycoplasma pneumonia is not a disease leading us to death, but it often causes things that require hospitalization. Antibiotics that show effect on mycoplasma are generally more toxic, compared to other antibiotics, so doctor cannot prescribe antibiotics just based on “the possibility” of mycoplasma pneumonia. It is favorable to conduct blood test before prescribe antibiotics.
I wondered that magic would have not happen if I had have insurance. Bright doctors would confirm several criteria of symptom through the measure such as blood test, they finally prescribe toxic antibiotics. They check whether virus is tolerant to Clarithromycin or not and swap it if it’s necessary. Avaricious or poor doctors might prescribe a lot of medicines. This could be better solution in this case.
Anyway I tried crazy measure to cure it. Mycoplasma doesn’t have cell wall and Surfactant disassemble cell membrane and the other components of Mycoplasma cell. Surfactants are compounds that lower the surface tension (or interfacial tension) between two liquids, between a gas and a liquid, or between a liquid and a solid. Those are used for cleanser and soap. In the movie “Fight Club”, main characters stole bodies from hospital and make home-made soap supporsed to sell to the rich people. This manufacturing process must contain usage of Surfactants.
In foods, surfactants are used to blend water and oil uniformly as an emulsifier. There are many kinds of emulsified foods such as margarine, butter, mayonnaise, ice cream, and so on.
I tried to bring surfactants into my blood somehow, so I ate 200 ml of mayonnaise. I could imagine digestive system broke surfactants before those come into blood, but I wanted to bet on miracle. My condition is getting worse, getting closed to the entrance of hell after “mayonnaise challenge”.
I was convinced that illness broke decision making system of mine. It was extremely difficult to judge what was the result and what caused the result. My health is totally unsuitable to think of complicated correlation on it also. I thought that I should chose proper measure, not believing in miracle.
Eventually, Generics of Tetracycline and New Quinolone antibiotics was sent to my house. I quit taking Meek and switched to Tetracycline antibiotic for 5 days. Later, I switched to New Quinolone for 5 days. Condition recovered little by little, but surely. I felt good and wanna eat something a week later. 1 month and 3 weeks had passed since I started coughed. I found my fitness is weakened tragically. I went to nice library 15 kilometer away from my house by bicycle everyday as a rehabilitation. I read books on computer science there through a day. Exercising and learning routine looked fantastic balance. Everything seemed to be moving to normality…but reality was not easy.
The Algae and Simulation Hypothesis
I had food poisoning suddenly. I had a strange feeling in the belly while rowing a bicycle to the library. I had repeated throwing up for 3 days, without sleeping. At first, I hesitate to throwing up what I ate, but I changed tactic quickly. I drank a lot of isomorphic sports drink and throw up aggressively. I found very interesting things after I get out everything I ate. It was algae.
Algae have been coming out from my stomach for 1.5 day. I can’t resist curiosity on it. I threw up it at basin, and scooped it. I looked at the algae as ecstatic for a long while. It was very creepy, but I could found an mysterious beauty in its dark green and red texture.
It does not smell very much. When I put it very close to my eyes, I could see a detailed structure. It is not quite similar to the structure of a building made by human. It seems like a generative design produced by Autodesk software, but the algae coming out of my body is far more complicated. “Human is convinced that they know what the world is like, but actually human might not be able to explain this small algae correctly, Genome defining our characteristics, Microorganisms active in our body, and evolution process of life. We just know the 0.1% of the world” I thought. I really needed electronic microscope. I wonder what they want to convey to me If the algae could speak their own language and we have technology to translate it to human language. I wonder if the algae is harming my health. I can’t help having some friendship feeling with it. It was like a story that a young boy is getting friendly with alien considered enemy of humanity in Sci-Fi Film.
I felt I was in a simulation while wearing red and green algae continuously on the basin in a dark room. Algae seemed to be extremely unrealistic. Someone outside the simulation may be sending some strong message to me in the simulation. Perhaps it might be an emergency sign. I close my eyes and throw myself into memory ocean for a long time. I can not find the corresponding memory defining algae as sign. Is there a possibility that someone hiding my memory? Is there any liquid that restore my memory, sold at mysterious store in chinatown? What is the memory in the simulation like? Will it disappear like a castle tower in the sand when going outside the simulation?
I wondered whether the balance of simulation collapses, it influenced various things like a collision, and eventually a algae came out from my mouth. Collapsing was happening mainly in background, but would expose on the surface of the simulation we were belonging to. I need to look for exit of the simulation.
To be boring, I was very realistic. I took New Quinolone antibiotic. It worked very much. I put small potion of green algae on basin eventually. That was last algae left in my stomach. When I recovered, it was first week in July. Two months has passed. The hottest summer in the history came. I was like 108 year old man just woke up from long cryogenic sleep.
Black Swan Clashed Me
What is factors correlated with this miserable result? Unhealthy eating habits, overwork, fatigue, sudden changes in temperature during the last week of April, plenty of alcohol drinking with Ginyu Force…, I can found a lot of hopeful candidate. They brought about unpredictable loss eventually.
I considered the possibility that somebody poisoned me, Just to be sure. This doubt can’t show any evidence, hard to prove it true. Supposing the possibility sounds insane in peaceful Japanese society, though, I had been newspaper reporter and researcher on economy and politics of some dynamic emerging country for five years. Assuming a small possibility, keeping it in one corner of the brain is very important survival technique. The world sometimes expose her hindered face of a dog-eat-dog world.
The most important point is how I dealt with crisis. I was so bad at it as you know already. I read Nassim Nicholas Taleb. he became wellknown with book ”The Black Swan” after world financial crisis(2007–2008) . His books say repeatedly that human brains tend to neglect the probability that unexpected event lacking considerable continuity will occur. Most of the events in this world can be explained on complex system. Predictions are easily betrayed by events that are non-normal distributions, Black Swan. You should deal with a bad Black Swan with extremely defensive measures, and needs to exploit the situation very strongly, when you meet good Black Swan.
His claim deeply moved me. We can survive in the midst of competitors who mistook coincidental fortune as that they make it with their own skill, just by being able to take this strategy against a complex world. We always need to discover the sweat spot that allow us to fail with very low cost, promising big reward. If you dig up gold with lower cost, exploit it. If you face with big risk, hide behind the rock.
We always mistake interpreting the reality you are confronting into your interpretation system, since we are part of the reality. There was a famous theory proved by economist Samuelson in 1965 that the appropriately anticipated securities prices follow a normally distributed random walk and became the basis of the subsequent financial theory. This theory claimed that it is able to predict the average value of the market price and the range of the market price. Wall Street bankers liked random walk theory based on this. Basically, securities traders’ return of investment approached to average as long as efficient market hypothesis work as textbook explain, but Black Swan from outside of bel curb have broken assumption frequently. Whenever Black Swan come, arrogant traders who exceeds his abilities was forced to leave the industry. They are considered to be similar with simply lucky guys enjoying winner first night at Las Vegas.
When you face with complex system, Reductionism, common used scientific methods trying to understand the whole by decomposing the whole complex and examining parts, doesn’t work very well. You should go deep into insight through try and error. The process is not deterministic, but probabilistic. If you repeat same input to complex system, you can not expect system push back same output. So you can’t predict the future.
3 Lessons from Meltdown
The lessons learned from this experience as entrepreneur are reminding me that I am living in the complex, super random world, which is forgettable in Tokyo where it seems that “everything is in it right place”(Listen radiohead). Now I am obviously excited at what the world is like. I like tough, wild and crazy playground, where I can make a difference to other Japanese players.
I will point out more detailed lessons below. Firstly, what is important is to build a robust system to prepare for everything that happens by accident. Although I unnecessarily increased the damage caused by bad Black Swan this time, I need to be robust for unpredictable situations. Sometimes very coward, sometime very greedy. Even though you know the way of thinking, it is usual to make many mistakes when you execute decisions immediately in a deep context as players, actually. So I should increase number of trial and error.
Secondly, looking at luck. luck often win skill, knowledge and expertise in startup world. some paper say personal success is correlated with luck rather than talent. In order to properly grab luck, proper emotional control is required. Shogi, Japanese chess, teaches us that we are not always perfect. The evaluation point that software value, indicates that shogi can be a very volatile game as long as humans play it.
Shogi is a complete information game, but what about incomplete information games like poker, mahjong etc? Information on the state of the game obtained for each player is partial in incomplete information games. Search is the finest way in complete information games, but search can be disable if the state of the game is unknown. How does major players lose their lives in games with high uncertainty density? In many cases, I assume that adopting definitely bad option deeply affect the result unless human play the game. Many of people believe in fault mythology based on no science background, being insensitive to their cognitive bias. Suddenly they got unaffordable damage and leave the game. Coward bull keeps surviving. This presume is very similar with Nassim Tareb’s way.
Thirdly, Paying attention to distortion or bias of the game. For example, we often find a shortcut making everything quick in contrast to congesting the other routes. The importer are as that, in my case. It would have been the best scenario that I exploit it immediately.
For another example, a system usually output very dynamic results to various input, but a very specific output can be expected for a certain input. There might be measures to sniff out this tendency somewhat. George Soros, hedge fund investor, is typical example. he succeeded in making the Bank of England’s foreign reserves empty. He finds the trigger that the participant in the game is not well aware of its importance. He executed big short in cooperation with other investors. He implemented this scheme again, at least twice: He is considered commonly that he triggered a trigger of Asian currency crisis. He made big profit from plunge of Yen, after Sinzo Abe became PM of Japan. Strategy he adopted was very simple, but timing and situation selected properly. He succeeded that pull out similar results.
It is important to always keep a distance from the biased idea that the human group unconsciously share. When you run the hypothesis, don’t give up a second to believe in yourself. It is like a speculative execution performed on the CPU, but the world output more unpredictable things than computers. We always need to be ready for uncertainty, and show not only robustness but also attitude to enjoy its complex characteristics.
Yoshida, A. (2009) , What problems exist in the Japanese healthcare market? (in Japanese), NTT Publisher.
Nassim Taleb(2007) ”The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”